India faces a Hamletian moment – to lift or not to lift the corona lockdown?

Let’s face it. No one knows when the shutdown will be lifted; whether it will be lifted; if it should be lifted and if so, how it should be lifted. It was easier on March 24 to announce a lockdown across the nation. Most people sagely nodded their heads at what they considered was a wise act of the government.

Accompanied by the banging of plates and lighting of lamps, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s move came across as a master-stroke as India became the first country in the world to shutdown en masse – in an attempt to flatten the curve of the coronavirus pandemic. The jury is out on whether it was the right decision. And most, at the moment, are betting that it was.

Having shut down the nation, twice in succession totalling 40 days — with some marginal relaxation — the million-dollar question is: what next? The latest from a fatigued bureaucracy is that the central government is to continue with the shutdown but with a larger leeway for states to take a call depending on the local situation. That is not really saying much as what Delhi is doing is passing on the buck to the states.

Many, if not all, states present a picture of confusion. Tamil Nadu took the cake by announcing a stricter lockdown for three days – which is on at the moment – by even shutting down stores selling essential commodities. And, as a gesture of grace, opened a four hour window for people to stock up for three days.

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In what many view as among the most thoughtless of decisions by the state government, the five cities including Chennai, which were targeted for the stricter shutdown, saw entire localities turning out in their thousands to buy stuff and the result was, as one can imagine, utter chaos, crowded streets and jammed traffic. All the advisories on social distancing and isolation went out of the window. If the coronavirus was waiting for an opportunity to spread, probably it would have rarely got a better chance.

Karnataka was another state in confusion. The BJP government of BS Yediyurappa flip-flopped on at least two occasions within hours of taking a decision. One was the move to allow two-wheelers on the road. Before one could dust the vehicles and grease their joints, the government reversed the decision. The other was the move to allow 50 per cent of the IT companies to resume work. Even as techies were rummaging through unused cupboards looking for their formal attire, the move was reversed in a matter of hours.

The reason for the confusion is pretty simple. Contrary to what the central government expected, the COVID-19 pandemic could not be controlled within the first 21 days. Yes, the rate of infection was probably brought down and a spike may have been averted, but this has not been uniform. In Maharashtra and Gujarat and, to an extent, Tamil Nadu, the infection has been steadily rising.

No one is sure what will happen when the lockdown is lifted. All kinds of mathematical modelling and “experts” are predicting that the lockdown has only postponed the inevitable. That once “normal” life is resumed, infections will go up. That is a fearsome possibility for the central and state governments which suddenly realised that the country is looking up to them to douse the pandemic, especially after having declared a 40-day shutdown.

Another section of people, including the intelligentsia, are now grumbling whether there is any point in continuing the lockdown. The pitiable plight of thousands of migrant workers across the country and the inability of the government to take adequate care of them in terms of supplying rations and transporting them home, has seriously dented the entire shutdown exercise.

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Reports from across the country describe the workers stranded in nowhere land — neither at home nor in their workplace. Some states have gone to extreme lengths to prevent movement of people, mainly migrants. Reports say Tamil Nadu has even erected walls blocking some roads linking it to neighbouring Andhra Pradesh.

One state is looking at another with suspicion; they don’t want anyone coming in from so-called COVID hotspots to green zones (having no cases of COVID-19). Travelling from one state to another is almost like crossing the international border between nations. There are instances where groups of migrants are going off the roads, wandering through fields to enter neighbouring states and then getting back onto the main roads – to avoid questioning by the police manning the borders.

Notwithstanding these unprecedented issues, it is but rational to expect that at some point the country has to open up – even if gradually, or to use the word currently in fashion – in a “calibrated” manner. The business community and even the revenue departments of various states seem to be on the edge – with no money accruing to the exchequer because of the shutdown.

The decision-makers at the Centre and the states are in an unenviable situation. They are staring at a Hobson’s choice. Irrespective of whether they open up or continue to keep activities shut, they will be criticised. At the same time, the current state of lockdown cannot continue either.

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In the midst of all this the villain of the piece, COVID-19, is showing no signs of letting up. Each day there is a jump in the numbers nationally even if not at the same rate as in some other countries like the United States. The conclusion is inescapable: the government can only do that much.

The elephant in the room is that people at the end of the shutdown will have to take care of themselves, ensure they protect themselves as best as they can with masks, sanitisers, washing hands and maintaining some distance from each other — and hope they can ward off the coronavirus.

As for the central and state governments, instead of “in your face” interventionist moves, it would be far more practical if they facilitate a better healthcare infrastructure to handle the growing COVID-19 positive cases by screening, testing and treating patients, and be better prepared to manage a spike if and when the lockdown is loosened.