How the BJP won Manipur

Manipur has a long old tradition of voting for the party in power at the Centre. For much of its post-Independence history, the Congress managed to rule Manipur because it ruled Delhi. As the national ruling party, it could mobilise resources that small regional parties failed to, especially because they would rarely appeal to the entire population of the state. 

A national party, on the other hand, could appeal to both the Hindu Meiteis, the Christian Nagas and Kukis and balance their local leadership by inducting leaders from these three dominant communities. The fragile ethnic balance was maintained by the distribution of the spoils of office.

Now the BJP has successfully played into that space, taking full advantage of a demoralised Congress, whose local unit was hit by defections since the party lost the chance to form government in 2017  despite winning more seats than the BJP. The saffrons had 21 seats to the Congress’ 28, but still managed to cobble together a ruling coalition by working out a power-sharing deal with the National People’s Party (NPP) and the Naga People’s Front (NPF) , the lone Trinamool Congress MLA and an Independent. 

That “come from behind” performance by the BJP , mainly crafted by current Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma ( who is convenor of the BJP led Northeast Democratic Alliance, or NEDA) , left the Congress in tatters with former CM Okram Ibobi Singh failing to play any meaningful role in Opposition.

Peace dividend

Manipur’s BJP Chief Minister N Biren Singh, a former BSF footballer, smartly capitalised on the Congress’ withdrawal from the active political space and reaped the ‘peace dividend’ in this election. Ibobi’s tenure ( 2012-17) had been marred by unending bandhs and blockades, mostly by Naga groups seeking to back the demand for a ‘Greater Nagalim’ or by groups opposing it. One such blockade of the state’s lifeline highway lasted 100 days and led to skyrocketing prices of essential commodities. 

Biren’s last five years in office have been relatively peaceful. The CM has failed to get the Meitei rebel groups to the table but the insurgency curve has dwindled. The only big rebel attack was in November last year, in which an Assam Rifles colonel was killed with his wife and son.

Biren suffered another major disadvantage. He was not able to provide definite commitments on the popular demand for scrapping the controversial and unpopular Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) but the subtle message got home that if the BJP was not in power in Manipur, the state would have little say in the Naga peace process between the Centre and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) . 

The BJP’s refusal to concede the NSCN’s demands for ‘Greater Nagalim’ ( that centred around the proposed merger of Manipur’s Naga areas with Nagaland) or a separate flag and constitution to Nagaland might have made the saffrons unpopular in Nagaland but that worked for the party amongst Meiteis and Kukis who see the NSCN as the elephant in the room.

Entry into railway map

This time around, none of the combustible issues like the Meitei demand for Inner Line Permits surfaced during the campaign. The opening of the rail track to Jiribam revived prospects of the completion of the Jiribam-Imphal track within the next five years. Manipur’s entry into India’s railway map 75 years after Independence was seen as a feather in the BJP cap. Speeding up infrastructure projects have helped the BJP in Assam and now in Manipur.

The final results were predictable. Exit polls had given BJP a majority; some even said the saffrons would get 40 seats. A gain of 10-12 seats over their 2017 tally is not a small achievement, considering the rush for tickets that caused dissent and led to some leaving the BJP for parties like the JD(U). 

The BJP high command is likely to give Biren a second innings as chief minister, so there is not much of a leadership issue. The party has hardly any worries of a resurgent Congress which appears leaderless. The NPP is a Meghalaya-based regional party while the NPF can only appeal to the Nagas. For all one knows, many MLAs from these groups may try to join the BJP for the lure of ministerial offices and chairmanships of PSUs. How the BJP will handle any possible rush of defectors is important in th future.