Himachal polls: Kharge’s rise enthused Dalit voters to give Cong the edge

The Congress could well have missed the bus in Himachal Pradesh but for the party catapulting a Dalit to the coveted post of Congress president. Mallikarjun Kharge became the top Congress boss only weeks before last month’s Assembly polls in the hill state. Dalits form about one-fourth of Himachal’s population. This has, indeed, helped Congress to romp home and jump over the halfway mark in the 68-seat Assembly by winning 40 of them. This is against 21 that the party won in the 2017 polls.

A Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey shows that 53 per cent Dalit voters favoured Congress in Himachal Pradesh as against 34 per cent from the same caste who voted for the BJP. Kharge had campaigned for Congress candidates in Himachal Pradesh for the November 12 polls soon after taking over the reins of the party as late as on October 26.

Dalit edge

The figures thrown up by Himachal Assembly polls held five years ago show that Dalit votes were then divided between Congress and BJP almost equally. In 2017, 48 per cent Dalits voted for Congress and the BJP had bagged 47 per cent votes of the community. From one per cent edge for the Congress in 2017, it rose to 19 per cent, according to the survey. This helped Congress greatly in accomplishing a narrow win over the BJP in terms of vote percentage, which statewide level was as slim as 0.9 per cent.

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Voters from most castes other than Dalits and backwards favoured the BJP more than Congress. As many as 48 per cent of Brahmins voted for the BJP, while Congress got only 33 per cent of their vote. Similarly, Rajputs, the caste men of the new Congress Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu, voted more dominantly for the BJP than the Congress – 49 per cent of them cast their votes to the BJP as against 40 to the Congress. The Scheduled Tribes voters too voted heavily for the BJP. Sixty per cent STs voted for the BJP whereas the Congress got only 33 per cent of tribesmen’s votes.

The odds thus were heavily stacked against the Congress this time too like the last time’s polls in the state. Yet the party could win 40 seats and left behind the BJP with only 25 seats. This could be possible since Dalits and Other Backward Castes (OBCs) voted for Congress overwhelmingly. Congress got 58 per cent OBC votes as against BJP’s 36.

Together with backward castes’ votes, Dalits could make a difference this time for the Congress. The members of both the underprivileged or depressed communities could well have warmed up to the Congress after five years of BJP incumbency in Himachal Pradesh.

This is more so since the BJP focused more on expanding the party’s tribal base as part of its policy to include subaltern groups into its ideological fold. It triggered a competition of sorts among the subaltern ranks when the BJP-run Centre decided to give the Hattis, or Himachal’s trading group, tribal status by enlisting them as Scheduled Tribes. Dalits see Hattis to be better off than most members of Scheduled Castes. So is the case with backward castes.

Kharge became the Congress president in a month from the time this Central government move on Hattis was made. The new Congress chief thus could easily strike the right chord among Dalits in Himachal Pradesh. This could also be the case in other states of the country in the times to come.

Kharge came to the helm of the Congress long after Babu Jagjivan Ram became Congress president, following the famous split in the Congress Party way back in 1969. The Congress won Lok Sabha polls handsomely in 1971 under his stewardship. The Congress therefore attaches at least some, if not similar, expectations from Kharge; and the party was not disappointed when the results of Himachal Pradesh polls came on December 8 alongside that of Gujarat.

Poor go for Congress

The share of poor, cutting across castes and communities, in Congress votes this time in Himachal has turned out to be more than that of the BJP. As per the CSDS survey, 51 per cent economically poor voters favoured Congress against 38 per cent who voted for the BJP. From among the rich, BJP got 46 per cent votes against Congress’ 40 per cent. It goes without saying that Dalits and backwards form the bulk of poor voters in Himachal like in most other parts of the country.

Kharge had campaigned in Gujarat too. But he got embroiled in a controversy as he likened Prime Minister Narendra Modi with demon king Ravana while campaigning. The Congress lost badly in Gujarat. But little was expected in Gujarat from Kharge since the western state has only seven per cent Dalit voters. This is unlike Himachal Pradesh, where Dalit electorate is estimated to vary between 22 and 27 per cent. In Himachal, only Rajputs outnumber Dalits as the former are said to form one-third of the state’s population.

The only other state that has Dalits in higher proportion than Himachal is neighbouring Punjab. The Congress brought a Dalit chief minister, Charanjit Singh Channi, on the eve of Asembly polls held earlier this year in Punjab. But it did not cut ice with the voters. Congress lost badly to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) because of the belated move. It created more confusion among the Congress satraps than letting them to put a united front against AAP despite it being a new player in Punjab politics.

The provision of a 10 per cent quota in government jobs for economically weaker sections (or EWS) made by the Central government is seen by Dalits and backwards as a step that is meant to exclude them. This is how Dalits and OBCs are coming together once again all over the country, including Himachal Pradesh, to safeguard their right to job reservations. This has also been reflected in the result of the polls held in the state, though it was not so in Gujarat.

Gujarat vs Himachal

Gujarat is more of a mercantile state, unlike Himachal, where government job is the mainstay of a significant number of families. The Congress had announced the revival of the old pension scheme for both states but it worked for the party only in Himachal. Kharge has hardly been optimistic about Congress’s performance in Gujarat. The party insiders say that Kharge took a bleak view of the party’s preparedness to fight polls in Gujarat when a Congress delegation from Gujarat met him in Delhi before this month’s polls.

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Thus, the Congress was looking beyond Gujarat since before the polls. Now it is relying on welfare-based old order as it is in tune with the spirit of the constitution. The party held a grand show on November 26 to mark the Constitution Day at Mhow in Madhya Pradesh, the birthplace of Dalit icon and the main architect of the constitution, Dr BR Ambedkar. Kharge led the Congress event at Mhow to honour Ambedkar alongside Rahul Gandhi, who joined it from his ongoing Bharat Jodo Yatra.

This showed Congress’ keenness to give Dalit history and contribution its due. The party also has its eyes on winning back its lost link with the crucial Dalit community. Nobody can be better suited for this than the new Congress chief. Next year’s Assembly polls in Kharge’s homestead Karnataka, besides Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, will test his appeal among Dalit and other voters. So will be the case during the 2024 general elections.

(The writer is an independent journalist based in Delhi-NCR. He tweets at  @abidshahjourno.)

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