Exit polls: Why Congress getting wiped out is not a big surprise

Look at the Congress numbers predicted by exit polls. They read like a telephone number starting with the country code of Bangladesh: 880- 6543214610. These are the projected seats for the Congress in 13 major states of India, except Kerala.

Its highest score is projected to be in Punjab, where it might win 8 seats, and in Karnataka, where it may end up with a tally of 7-8. In the wide expanse covering 450 constituencies between these two states, the Congress is not even winning 10 per cent of the seats on offer. Like in 2014, the Congress is likely to be decimated.

Why is the BJP sweeping the north, west and east?  The answer lies in the telephone number. In states where the Congress was expected to give the BJP a tough fight, it has just caved in. In states north of Karnataka, it has given all its rivals a safe passage and the biggest beneficiary of this capitulation is the BJP.

No big surprise

That the Congress is getting wiped out is not a big surprise. In many states—Maharashtra, Gujarat, Bihar—it was starting with at least a 10 per cent gap compared to the BJP’s vote share in 2014. Its chances of bridging the deficit in the absence of a huge anti-incumbency wave were negligible. So, its chances of making a comeback depended on three states where it had won the recent assembly polls.

But, even in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, reports from the ground were not encouraging for the Congress. The defining narrative of the election in these states was—Aayega to Modi hi (Modi will win). The biggest reason behind this popular belief was that voters in these states were clear in their choices—for the state governments they were voting against the BJP and for Parliament their choice was Modi.

Rahul not a viable alternative

It is evident the Congress president is not a viable alternative to Modi. Before the campaign began his acceptability ratings were less than 20 per cent, compared to Modi’s 55-60 per cent. The BJP turned the election into a choice between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. Everywhere in north India, the BJP sought votes in Modi’s name, making candidates irrelevant. In some constituencies, voters were not even aware who was contesting on the BJP ticket, the only name that mattered to them was Modi’s. The strategy of turning the election into a presidential contest seems to have worked for the BJP.

The Congress failed to counter the perception that Modi’s victory is inevitable primarily because voters are just not ready to accept Rahul Gandhi. In spite of their grievances against the government—demonetisation, unemployment, rural distress—they balk at the idea of Rahul as India’s PM.

Caste arithmetic

To add to its woes, the Congress made several mistakes to further help the BJP and sabotage its own electoral prospects. In Rajasthan, infighting between Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot percolated down to the ground level, where the two rival camps worked against each other’s candidates. This rivalry between its top two leaders turned the caste arithmetic against the Congress. The jats who had supported the party in the Assembly polls, switched to the BJP because of Gehlot, who they detest. And gurjars, who had voted for the Congress in December, switched their loyalty because Pilot—a gurjar— was denied the CM’s chair.

Jats are the most influential caste in Rajasthan. In at least 13 constituencies out of the 25 in Rajasthan, their vote is decisive. The gurjars, similarly, can impact the outcome in a few seats in eastern Rajasthan. Alienating both these castes was a blunder the Congress will pay for. If the Congress has the ability to read the verdict, it should realise that the BJP will trounce it in the next Assembly polls if Gehlot remains the CM.

Letdown of farmers

In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress was expected to win over rural voters with swift implementation of its loan-waiver promise. But, the Kamal Nath government simply did not have enough cash to implement the scheme. Upset with the government’s failure, farmers who voted for the Congress in December seem to have returned to the BJP. Since Kamal Nath is running a government supported by the BSP and some independent legislators, he would find the next few months very tough as a resurgent BJP will make every effort to topple him.

The biggest example of the Congress failure is Chhattisgarh, where it had routed the BJP just a few months ago. That the BJP is expected to make a comeback and win half of the seats in the state is a damning indictment of the party’s leadership. How the Congress messed up a huge mandate is a study in electoral mismanagement.

Beyond Rahul

In the end, the BJP benefitted from two factors—Modi’s personal popularity and the electoral aversion to Rahul. The timing of the Pulwama attack, the air strikes on Balakot buttressed the PM’s image as a strong leader who would bring India’s enemies to their knees. In contrast, Rahul appeared meek and callow.

The Congress failed to realise in this election people were voting on emotive issues. Swayed by the BJP’s slogans on nationalism and internal security, most people ignored the government’s failures and treated their vote as some sort of contribution to nation building. The Congress slogans on NYAY (minimum guaranteed income scheme) and discourse on Modi’s failure drowned in the din over nationalism, Hindutva and Balakot.

The election is yet another reminder to the Congress that it now needs to look beyond Rahul. In any other democracy, the leader of a party that got decimated would have either resigned gracefully or been booted out. But, Rahul got a second chance after the 2014 failure.

If you continue to do the same thing, in the same way, even a thousand attempts would not change the outcome. If Rahul continues to remain the Congress leader, its tally in 2024 would continue to read like a telephone number, perhaps starting with some other country’s dialling code.