Can India strike peace deal in Russia-Ukraine war? Worth dreaming...

Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s visit to Moscow has thrown up intense speculation on whether he is involved in some sort of mediation to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.

A section of the Indian media, which supports the Narendra Modi government,  and a large number of its social media followers, appear to be conjuring the possibility of New Delhi playing the role of peace-maker between the two countries that have been at war for over 250 days now.

That India had any role at all in the first place was triggered by the recent meeting where the Indian prime minister famously told Russian President Vladimir Putin at a bilateral meeting in Uzbekistan on September 16 that “today’s era is not of war”, referring to the conflict with Ukraine.

This caught the attention of world leaders and the global media, who interpreted it as India’s opposition to the war. Since then, there have been sporadic reports assessing whether India can play the peacemaker.

India has routinely sent its soldiers under the United Nations mandate to maintain peace in various parts of the world but there has been no instance where its political leadership has successfully mediated in a global conflict.

Why Jaishankar is in Russia 

Which leaves the question why Jaishankar is in Moscow at this time. This is because, more than ever before, India finds itself in a deep relationship with Russia, each with its own laundry list of issues to be dealt with.

Also Read: Jaishankar in Moscow calls for ‘return to dialogue’ on Ukraine conflict

As Jaishankar told the media, there are pressing issues like the Taliban’s Afghanistan in India’s neighbourhood which needs to be addressed besides other bilateral concerns, including the import of oil and other trade-related items.

While theoretically, it is entirely likely that Jaishankar is involved in some sort of effort to cajole Putin to drop hostilities and break bread with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, practically such a mode of action seems far-fetched. And, for a variety of reasons.

For one, though the two neighbours, Russia and Ukraine, are at war,  their line of communication is intact. Almost since the week, Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 this year, the two countries started negotiations (in a third country) to end the fighting. Zelensky even offered to withdraw his proposal to join the Western military alliance, NATO, which had triggered the conflict in the first place.

Before Ukraine’s proposal could turn into a concrete move towards peace, the United States-led West convinced Zelensky to go on fighting with the promise of backing him. They have done that, which is one reason why the war has prolonged.

For the US and its Western allies, there is no question of backing off from the agenda of Ukraine joining NATO even if it means massive destruction and loss of lives of innocent people in their thousands. In other words, the war is not for Ukraine to end.

The levers, in reality, are controlled by Washington. And, US President Joe Biden for all his liberal trappings, has remained hawkish on the issue of a Ukraine-NATO relationship.

Also Read: India abstains on Russia-sponsored draft resolution at UNSC for probe on Ukraine’s alleged bio weapons

So, if Jaishankar has to mediate, it is between Russia and the US. The Indian emissary will have to either convince Russia to allow Ukraine to join NATO or the US to let go of Ukraine.

If the war had started impulsively, it could have still been possible to mediate. But the Ukraine war was preceded by weeks of posturing by the US and Russia over NATO entering Ukraine. And for Russia, which had already experienced a Soviet break-up just 30 years ago, this spelt danger. Without much ado, Putin launched the invasion in a calculated move to protect Russia before NATO came sniffing on its border.

The only sliver of possibility for a ceasefire is if both Russia and the US (including its European allies and Ukraine) are tired of the war and want to end it. And, in that case, if both prefer to allow India to sew up a peace deal.

Ukraine, an irritant 

India has a comfortable relationship with the US and Russia, no doubt.  But one discordant note is Ukraine’s irritation, if not anger, with India for siding with Moscow in the war. It has expressed its disapproval on a few occasions when India either abstained from voting against Russia or in favour of Ukraine at the UN Security Council. However, Kyiv is amenable to persuasion by Washington, so that may not be a major obstacle.

The million dollar-rouble question, therefore, is,  whether the two big powers on either side want to stop fighting. There are no signs to this effect. Russia may be under pressure from sanctions. But, countries like India and China have eased their difficulties by continuing to trade with the country. Latest reports say that Russia has become India’s biggest crude oil supplier replacing Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

As winter approaches, Europe could miss receiving Russian gas to heat up the continent though reports say there is no crisis as yet. The continent receives 40 per cent of its gas supplies from Russia. Sanctions have not yet been applied to gas from Russia to Europe. But gas supplies have reduced following blasts in Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, which have shut for repairs and maintenance. Alternative routes are being used to pump gas from Russia to Europe.

Also Read: G7 foreign ministers set to grapple with Ukraine war, China

Despite hardships, Europe has embarked on a long-term plan to reduce dependence on Russian gas by cranking up electricity from nuclear plants, hydroelectric and LNG (liquefied natural gas) from outside suppliers, including the US and Qatar.

Effectively,  what all this means is that the West is in no hurry to end the war until its objectives are achieved and Russia, too, is prepared to continue battling until its perceived security threat is neutralised. As it stands now, therefore,  the world is in for a long haul as far as the conflict is concerned unless there is a new, unforeseen development.