British elections, a de facto referendum on Brexit

The British general elections on December 12 is for all practical purposes one more referendum on Brexit but in a barely-made up disguise.

The reason for Brexit’s pole position in the elections is a no-brainer: If the Conservative party returns to power, chances are it will take out the country from the European Union. If the Labour party wins, the chances of Britain leaving the EU recedes considerably.

There are really no other reasons for the third elections in five years, called by the incumbent Prime Minister Boris Johnson, as he was unable to implement Britain’s exit from the EU a.k.a. Brexit.

But either way, it is not going to be easy, whichever party comes to power.

In British history, this is probably among the rare occasions when the nation faces a crisis of existence, staring at a veritable Hobson’s choice. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

The results of the 2016 referendum on Brexit was a clear expose of the nation’s fractured mindset as the “leavers” were just around four percent more than the “remainers”. Besides, England and Wales voted in favour of Brexit while Northern Ireland and Scotland were against.

Also Read: EU agrees new January 31 Brexit deadline

The perspectives are therefore not just divided but in smithereens. You have a situation where sections of the Conservative party are against Brexit, going against the party line, while the same is true of the Labour party with renegade members backing Brexit.

The Brexit-created crisis is real, and there is no possibility of wishing it away. Former Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron who was responsible for the referendum has regretted that the remainers lost the vote. Clearly, the vote going the leavers way indicates how things have gone awry for this one-time tiny but powerful nation that ruled the world.

If Boris Johnson’s gambit pays off and the Conservatives return to power, Brexit will be a certainty. This will anger Scotland and Northern Ireland. Scots have already said in the event of Brexit their chances of seceding from the United Kingdom will get stronger. And, if another referendum for independence takes place the chances are it will go its way.

The same is the case with Northern Ireland. Now that both the UK and the Republic of Ireland (South Ireland) are with the EU, there are no obstacles in travelling from the British part of Ireland to independent Ireland. In fact, this played a major role in defusing the decades-long insurgency in northern Ireland against London’s rule.

But, with the exit of the UK from the European Union, border crossings will be a reality once again triggering fears of a renewal of the Irish insurgency. The EU has offered what is known as the backstop agreement, as per which the border between the two Irelands will remain porous. But this will mean signing a Customs Union agreement which Brexiteers aver will ensure that the UK continues to be tied up with the EU. So that is ruled out. But there are no other options to satisfy Northern Ireland, and that may create fertile grounds for another insurgency.

If the Labour party under Jeremy Corbyn comes to power, what is sure is that Brexit will get inordinately delayed and may even get called off. Corbyn has officially declared he is neutral on Brexit but his roadmap shows otherwise. He has said that his government will renegotiate with the EU on the terms of Brexit and then put that to vote. If the British voters give the green signal then Brexit is on.

Also Read: Boris Johnson pauses Brexit Bill after MPs vote for delay

But contrary to the Conservatives which have pledged to be out of the EU within at most six months after coming to power, the Labour party will drag the issue through 2020 indicating utmost reluctance, if not anything else.

The other two marginal players, the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party are clear in their positions. The Lib Dems have said they will scrap Brexit while the Brexit Party (a new avatar of the right-wing UK Independence Party) has made it clear it does not care for any deal with the EU and will implement Brexit as fast as possible.

However, opinion surveys indicate both the marginal parties do not stand a chance of winning. The contest is, as usual, between the Conservatives and the Labour party. Polls have suggested that Boris Johnson is in the lead with Jeremy Corbyn following close behind.

What is also happening is that both the “leavers” and the “remainers” want their vote to go to parties that will eventually win. So, voters are said to be shifting their allegiance from the Lib Dems to Labour on the one hand and from Brexit Party to the Conservatives on the other.

The real concern is if neither party gets a full majority. If this turns out to be the case, Thursday’s elections will have not have achieved its purpose and Britain will continue to witness chaos in the days and weeks to come. And, according to some reports, that is a dominant possibility.

Obviously, there are other issues. Labour has promised free university education, increased spending on healthcare and nationalisation of certain industries. The Conservative party too has promised more funding for healthcare and increased focus on security. But, at the risk of belabouring, these issues are for the record. The real stake is Brexit. Period.