Article 9, military posturing: Shinzo Abe leaves behind unfinished business

Even in the worst of nightmares no one in Japan would have visualised a horrific assassination of Shinzo Abe, a hugely popular politician within the Liberal Democratic Party and of a person who had generally been seen as having defined politics of Japan for a generation. A nation of 125 million is in shock cutting across the political spectrum unable to come to terms with the gunning down of a former Prime Minister in a nation that hardly witnesses weapons-related violence except for those rare instances of crime syndicates.

In other democracies, the horrific slaying of a leader would immediately trigger a huge debate on gun laws or tougher punishments. In the case of Japan, this is not happening and unlikely to slip into this slanging match in days to come. The country is known for its extremely tough gun laws where it is practically impossible to own a weapon and ammunition; and even if one did that was only after an exhaustive process. In the present instance there is a lot of soul searching on the level of protection to top officials. The assassin of Abe did not procure a weapon legally or in the shady alleys; he is said to have assembled one at home — a crude sawed off double barreled shot gun.

Enviable pedigree

The perpetrator will have to face the legal and judicial process where he would most likely be handed down the death penalty. Japan is one of a handful of countries that has capital punishment in the books; and some 87 prisoners are said to be on the death row waiting to exhaust their appeals process before sent to the gallows. The government consistently maintains that 80 per cent of the people support this ultimate punishment and hence in no mood to bow down to pressure from human rights quarters. If anything the cold-blooded killing of Abe at a political rally could only harden the stance of retaining the ultimate penalty.

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The political pedigree of Abe was enviable. His maternal grandfather Nobusuki Kishi was one of the early Prime Ministers of Japan; his great uncle Eisaku Sato was also a long-serving Prime Minister of Japan; and his father Shintaro Abe was the Foreign Minister in the 1980s when Japan was trying to break into the route of internationalisation under the leadership of Yasuhiro Nakasone. In fact, some maintain that he was an assistant to his father during his stint at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. And at the age of 52, Abe became the youngest Prime Minister of Japan.

In his nine years at the helm of affairs — in two stints between 2006 and 2007 and 2012 to 2020 — Abe was variously described as a pragmatist, a nationalist and an ultra-nationalist who wished to see Japan back in the scheme of things. In fact his conservative credentials that helped him to exercise full control over his faction in the Liberal Democratic Party is said to have been shaped by his disdain of the fashion Japan was treated in the aftermath of the second world war; and in a constitution that was imposed by the United States.

Unfinished business

In the eyes of many in East Asia, notably China, Abe eulogised war criminals by his visits to the Yasukini Shrine, a Shinto Shrine that is dedicated to the souls of more than two million Japanese who had died for the country since the time of the Meiji era. Founded in 1869, official visits to the site have brought about outrage in China and South Korea as the “last resting place of the souls” lists 1068 convicted war criminals including 14 Class A war criminals of the second world war. Abe paid a high-profile visit in 2013 when he was the Prime Minister and again upon retirement in 2020. Many Prime Ministers and Cabinet members have visited the shrine.

What particularly irked the conservatives and the political right within and outside the LDP was Article 9 of the Constitution that stipulated that “the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation” and further forbidding Japan to maintain an army, navy or air force. In fact, if there is one unfinished business in the legacy of Abe it is in a fervent hope or controversial goal of revising Article 9 although some would argue that Abe, since 2015, with the help of like-minded parliamentarians have worked around the constitutional limitations and moved Japan away from any defensive posturing. In fact, the so-called controversial security bills paved the way for Japanese self defence forces to participate in exercises and operations not just with formal allies like the United States but also with countries like India and Australia within the framework of the Quad.

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Closely tied with Article 9 of a “Pacifist” Constitution was the One per cent GDP cap on defence spending along with the three principles of banning nuclear weapons production, possession or entry. The United States that maintains a huge facility in Okinawa and where its naval fleets often do the rounds gets away by saying that it is not its procedure to spell out the exact capabilities of its warships. And on the issue of nuclear principles, sceptics have long maintained that Japan could be one of those un-announced states and could be a “screw driver away” from assembling a nuclear weapon.

Abe’s legacy

In the recent past, Tokyo has been able to circumvent the ceiling on defence spending citing regional and international environments. An aggressive China menacing in the South China Seas and needling in the East China Seas with the unfinished business of Senkakus — that Taiwan also lays a claim to — along with the belligerence of North Korea firing off missiles close to the coast of Japan have often been cited as the rationales for the spurt in defence expenditure. This April the present government announced its intention of raising defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP, most certainly to the delight of Washington that had long been maintaining that Japan was getting a “free ride” on defence, a flawed proposition floated since the 1970s.

There was a speculation in some quarters that Abe would perhaps get back to the political scene for a third time to take care of the unfinished business of reconstructing Japanese identity in the comity of nations. Abe had undoubtedly had the political muscle within his faction and support from the rightist Japan Innovation Party (JIP), or the Nippon Ishin no Kai and the Komeito. But what could hold back Prime Minister Fumio Kishida from giving finishing touches to Abe’s legacy is the opposition of the Liberals within the LDP and a domestic public opinion that still favours retaining Article 9 and Pacifism, albeit narrowly.

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In all his tough posturings in foreign policy, former Prime Minister Abe was fully aware of the regional sentiments of Japan abandoning the pacifist constitution especially Article 9. For one thing, Abe was fully aware of the emerging challenges of the Indo Pacific, especially in the context of Russia and the war in Ukraine; and for another East and South East Asia are still quite apprehensive of a resurgent Japan that in their view is yet to come to terms with the past. The political right will undoubtedly try to make the most in a post-Abe era but it will not be a smooth ride for sure.

(The writer was a senior journalist in Washington covering North America and the United Nations)

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