With Rahul’s dole promise, Cong sets agenda for first time in 2019

Rahul Gandhi’s pre-poll promise of an annual dole of Rs72,000 to families living below the poverty line has finally managed to give the Congress a semblance of control over the poll narrative. For the first time in this election, Rahul Gandhi has set the agenda and forced the government to respond to him.

In an election where the Congress was merely playing catch-up, fluffing its act because of the confusion within its ranks on how to respond to the BJP’s politics of nationalism and air strikes, the buzz around the dole is a significant victory.

In theory, Gandhi’s strategy sounds right. An election is about the real issues and problems faced by the electorate. Ideally, parties should talk about employment, healthcare, education and equitable distribution of resources among voters. But, the BJP has been running away from a debate on these subjects, preferring to talk about faux issues like patriotism, Hindutva and Ram Mandir. Gandhi has at least tried to bring the focus back on the electorate with what he calls the ‘final assault on poverty.’

That he has managed to rile the BJP is apparent from the attack the government has launched on the Congress. In a Facebook post hours after the Congress promise, finance minister Arun Jaitley called it a ‘bluff.’ At a press conference earlier in the day, he accused the Congress of creating slogans making promises without finding the resources for it. Some of his other party colleagues dismissed the dole as yet another joke from the Congress president.

The BJP’s reaction is, of course, a classic case of the pot calling the kettle black. In the run up to the 2014 elections, the BJP had promised Rs15 lakh to every Indian by launching an attack on black money, thus pioneering the term jumlanomics (slogan economics). After being voted to power, the party turned doles into one of its major policies. Notice how it embraced the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) after consistently criticizing it. Then, just a few months before elections, the government announced direct transfer of Rs6000 per annum to farmers. So, the Congress isn’t the only one to use slogans and dolenomics in an election.

Also, Gandhi is not the first one to come up with the idea of guaranteed income to the poor. The NDA government’s former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian has been one of the biggest supporters of a universal basic income scheme. In the Economic Survey for 2016-17 he had proposed a basic income of Rs7,620 per year for poor households. In several interviews after that he had argued that the idea of poverty alleviation through guaranteed income is financially viable.

Gandhi’s promised Rs6000 per month dole is however much bigger, making it sound unbelievable. But, the Congress chief claims he has spoken to economists of repute for the modalities of the scheme. French economist Thomas Picketty, known for his work on income equality, told an Indian website that he is helping Gandhi with the scheme. The Congress has also reportedly consulted Nobel laureate Amartya Sen. Even though the BJP blasted Gandhi for ‘promising the moon,’ some serious thought seems to have gone into Gandhi’s promise.

Mathematically, the idea sounds viable, provided the existing subsidies and doles are extinguished and redirected for the benefit of the poor. Currently, India’s subsidy burden is around Rs3 lakh crore. Gandhi’s scheme, if implemented, would add an additional fiscal burden of Rs 60,000 crore, which is about two per cent of the current GDP. When the then UPA government had announced MGNREGA, its financial viability was questioned with equal force. Today, it is the cornerstone of the BJP government’s social welfare schemes. (In 2017-18, it generated more than 250 crore person days of work.) NREGA’s success shows that generating additional money for poverty alleviation may be difficult but not impossible.

Also, the current subsidies are given out under various heads and not necessarily to the Indian poor. The subsidy on petroleum, diesel and cooking gas, for instance, is availed by almost every Indian. Similarly, farmers with substantial incomes get the same amount of subsidy on purchase of fertilizers as those with low incomes. A scheme that redirects these subsidies to the intended beneficiaries would lead to judicious distribution of resources.

The Congress has not given details of its scheme. Gandhi did not reveal if the scheme would be in addition to the existing doles or would redistribute and reallocate them. But, that’s his political right. At the moment, it is just a promise. He would be obliged to give its details and implement it only if the electorate falls for the sop.

But, for the moment, Gandhi’s ploy has worked. While announcing the dole, Gandhi had said with child-like glee that he is creating a dhamaka (big bang) that would leave everyone shocked. Going by the debate on social media, the footage on TV channels and the counterattacks by the BJP, Gandhi has succeeded in triggering a debate that puts him at the centre of the poll narrative. For a party struggling to make itself heard, this is an achievement.