Sharpest fall in population growth rate has been among Muslims: NFHS-5 data

The latest data obtained from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) debunk claims made by right-wing activists about a population boom in the Islamic community as part of an alleged conspiracy to turn India into a Muslim-majority country.

The recently released NFHS-5 data reveal a sharp decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of the Muslim community over nearly three decades. Interestingly, when compared with the data of the first NFHS, conducted in 1992-93, the 2019-21 data show the sharpest decline in fertility rate in the Muslim community.

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The latest survey reports an overall fall in India’s fertility rate. TFR is the average number of children a woman would bear by the end of her childbearing years (15-49). Age-specific fertility rates are calculated for the three years before the survey, based on detailed birth histories provided by women.

The national TFR is 2.0 children per woman, a decline from 2.2 in the 2015-2016 survey. According to the 2019-21 survey, the TFR of Muslims in India is 2.36, while that of the Hindu and Christian communities are 1.94 and 1.88, respectively.

In the first NFHS, conducted in 1992-93, the TFR was 4.41, 3.3 and 2.87, respectively. Between the first and latest NFHS, the rate of decline of TFR is 46.5 percentage points among Muslims, 41.2 percentage points among Hindus and 34.5 percentage points among Christians, which means the rate of TFR decline is the sharpest among Muslims in the country.

 

Education and population growth

“There are three components for population growth – fertility, mortality and migration – but people talk only about fertility,” observed Irudaya Rajan, founder and chairman of the International Institute of Migration and Development. 

“The decline in fertility comes only with social and economic empowerment that reflects in terms of income, education and employment. Those who created the theory that the Muslim population is growing (as part of an agenda), ignored the backwardness of the community in India in the early years of independence. Over the last three or four generations, the Muslim community has achieved growth, which started reflecting in the rate of population growth, too.”

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“People are comparing oranges and apples,” says Irudaya Rajan, adding that comparing the population of various communities without considering the social and economic empowerment is a wrong analogy.

Historic trend

The trend marking a decline in population growth in the Muslim community began in 2001. Since 2011, the population growth rate in the Hindu community has also come down to 17.75 per cent from 19.92 per cent. In the same period, the growth rate of Muslim population saw a sharp fall to 24.6 per cent from 29. 52 per cent.

It is pertinent to note that this has been a historic trend; the population growth rate for the Muslim community had declined to 30.78 per cent in the census of 1971, from 32.48 per cent in 1961.

According to experts, population growth has nothing to do with religious faith. The data collected since Independence make it clear that a decline in population growth is directly proportional to the economic and social empowerment of a community. “In the 1961 census, the district that recorded the lowest population growth was Pathanamthitta (Kerala). It was the place where the affluent Syrian Christians lived. It is very basic to understand the connection between economic and social development and population growth,” said Irudaya Rajan.