New exit poll predicts huge victory for BJP in UP, Congress’ rout in Punjab

A day before the counting of votes for five Assembly elections, an exit poll conducted by Lokniti-CSDS has predicted a massive victory for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, while forecasting the ouster of the Congress in Punjab.

The survey has just calculated the percentage of votes that contesting parties are likely to win in the elections and not a seat projection.

Also read: Exit polls predict BJP win in UP, Manipur, AAP in Punjab, close contest in others

According to the exit poll, results of which were tweeted by political analyst Sanjay Kumar on Wednesday, while BJP along with its allies will bag 43 per cent of the vote share in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party will become the main Opposition with 35 per cent of the vote share.

Lokniti- CSDS Post Poll Survey UP
AC 70 Locations 280
Sample size nearly 7000 (exact number awaited as some data yet to be added)
Vote Share Estimate
BJP+ 43%
SP+ 35%
BSP 15%
Cong 3%
Oth 4%
Big win for BJP
Margin of error 3%@LoknitiCSDS @csdsdelhi

— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) March 9, 2022

A 15 per cent of the votes will go into the account of Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party while the Congress will get a paltry three per cent of votes. Other parties will jointly share four per cent of the votes.

In Punjab, the exit poll projects Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party as the frontrunner with 40 per cent of the vote share. A rout may await the ruling Congress whose vote share is projected at 26 per cent.

The Shiromani Akali Dal and its allies are likely to win 20 per cent of the votes while the BJP is projected to bag seven per cent of the vote share.

Lokniti- CSDS Post Poll Survey findings PUNJAB
No of AC 45 Locations 180 all sampled randomly, Sample size 4668, voters sampled randomly from voters list
Vote share Estimate
AAP 40%
Cong 26%
SAD+20%
BJP+ 7%
Oth 7%
Big victory for AAP
Margin of error 4%@LoknitiCSDS @csdsdelhi

— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) March 9, 2022

Congress which had exuded confidence in winning the Uttarakhand polls may at last settle for a humiliating defeat as the survey predicts the BJP to win a “comfortable majority” in the hill state, winning around 43 per cent of the votes. The Congress’ vote share is likely to be 38 per cent.

Finding from Lokniti-CSDS Post Poll survey UTTARAKHAND
No of AC 26 Locations 104, Sample size 2738, All sampled randomly
Estimated Vote Share
BJP 43%
Cong 38%
AAP 3%
BSP 4%
Oth 12%
Should give a comfortable majority to BJP
Margin of error 3%.@LoknitiCSDS @csdsdelhi

— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) March 9, 2022

Like previous exit polls, the Lokniti-CSDS survey has also predicted the possibility of a hung assembly in Goa. While the BJP is likely to win 32 per cent of the votes, the Congress may bag 29 per cent of the votes. The Trinamool Congress, which made its debut in Goa this time will get 14 per cent of the votes while the AAP will win seven per cent of it.

Also read: What the exit polls don’t tell: A big win in UP is no guarantee for BJP

Lokniti-CSDS Post Poll survey GOA
AC 20 location 80 sample size 2066 sampled from voters list
Vote share estimate
BJP 32%
Cong 29%
AITC+ 14%
AAP 7%
RG 8%
Oth 10%
Hung Assembly possible
Margin of error 6% due to smaller sample & multi corner contest@LoknitiCSDS @csdsdelhi

— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) March 9, 2022

The results of the Lokniti-CSDS poll are in line with those predicted by earlier polls on Monday.