Monsoon onset projects strong outlook for Kharif crops this year

The timely onset of the four-month-long monsoon season from June 1 and the likely normal rainfall projects a strong outlook for the kharif (summer) crops this year, which is critical at a time when the Indian economy is under immense pressure due to the COVID-19 fallout.

The southwest monsoon hit Kerala on June 1 on its normal onset date, said the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday. It also said the depression in the Arabian Sea is likely to intensify into a severe cyclone and cross the north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts on June 3.

North India is expected to receive “above normal” rainfall, and central India and the southern peninsula will get “normal” rainfall. However, east and northeast India are likely to receive less rainfall than other parts of the country, the IMD said.

Southwest monsoon: India to receive ‘normal’ rains with 102% of average

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Conducive monsoon paving way for strong outlook for kharif crops 2020, said an update by Hummingbird, an independent agriculture data entity.

“The kharif crops may save the day for GDP growth in India, with the forecast of near normal monsoon in 2020-21, if the government strategies and connects dots among key variables impacting agriculture direction – higher subsidy for agri-inputs, easy and adequate credits accessibility , labour availability, proper logistics, timely announcement and encouraging hike in MSP for 2020-21 and efficacy in procurement and storage machinery along with many others big and small challenges in the country’s agriculture sector,” it said.

The Centre had earlier in the day announced an increase in the minimum selling prices (MSP) of 14 kharif crops by 50-83 per cent. Farmers will also get more time to repay their loans, till August now, Union Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar told reporters during a briefing. (Click here to know more)

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India receives 75 per cent of its rainfall from southwest monsoon during June to September. It is not only crucial for farming in the country, but also for replenishing the reservoirs, and more importantly to the economy which is still largely dependent on agriculture.

Overall, the country will receive normal precipitation with a Long Period Average (LPA) of 102 per cent with an error margin of plus or minus four per cent, M Rajeevan, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said on the second long range forecast for the 2020 southwest monsoon rainfall.

There is 41 per cent possibility that India will receive “normal” rainfall and just five per cent possibility of “deficient” rainfall, he said. Monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 103 per cent of its LPA during July and 97 per cent of LPA during August with a model error of plus or minus nine per cent.

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Agriculture is expected to be major bright spot for India in 2020-21, the update said, adding that pre-monsoon rains from March 1 till 20 have provided good base for kharif crops with out of 36 meteorological subdivisions in India, there is “excess” soil moisture in 21, “normal” in nine and only six are “deficient”.

The strong outcome of rabi 2019-20 could not be reaped properly because of various disruptions due to COVID-19 and lockdown. However, the update said that a good monsoon for coming kharif crops will have strong impact on rural economy prospects in 2020-21.

Industries such as logistics, energy and utilities, aviation and several others are also significantly impacted by the monsoon quantum. Performance of Agri-inputs, banking sector and NBFCs is directly proportional to the quality of crops and farm output, it added.

As per the industry experts, a well distributed monsoon along with the abundant reservoir levels in seasonally adjusted terms, should support a 3.5-4.5 per cent agricultural growth in FY2021, the update said.