Goa may see split verdict in 2022 polls; BJP set to be largest party: Survey

The BJP is likely to bag a 30 per cent vote share to become the single largest party in Goa in the Assembly elections next year, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is expected to be the main Opposition, winning 24 per cent of the vote share, the third ABP News-CVoter Battle for the States Tracker has found.

Current Opposition Congress is projected to fall back to Number 3 with 20 per cent votes.

The vote share indicates that the possibility of a split verdict and a resultant hung assembly is very likely in the Konkan state.

The projections are based on daily tracking polls conducted between November 13 and December 18. The telephonic survey took the opinion of over 92,000 individuals above the age of 18 years, across the five poll-bound states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa. The survey is expected to have a margin error of ±3 to ±5 per cent.

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The tracked in the earlier rounds had forecast a simple majority win for the BJP. As per the latest survey, the saffron party is projected to win 19 seats in the 40-member assembly – just one seat short of the halfway mark of 20 to form government. Similarly, the AAP is likely to win seven seats and the Congress six.

While the BJP’s weak position, riding on the anti-incumbency wave in the state, could have been advantageous for the Opposition Congress to grab power, the same is far from possible this time around. The anti-incumbency votes instead are likely to be split between the AAP and smaller parties, who would become kingmakers in the event of a split verdict. These smaller parties are expected to win 26 per cent of the vote share, winning eight seats.

However, as per the survey, Chief Minister Pramod Sawant, with 29 per cent approval from Goans, is still the most popular contender for the chief minister’s post. He is followed by an unnamed leader of the AAP with 21 per cent approval.

BJP likely to return to power in UP

According to the Tracker, the Yogi Adityanath government is expected to return to power in the Uttar Pradesh assembly polls next year albeit with a reduced vote share with Samajwadi Party emerging as a chief contender to the BJP.

The BJP along with its allies is expected to win 40.4 per cent of votes, while SP is projected to win 33.6 per cent, a 10 per cent rise from its tally in 2017. The vote share of BSP is projected to fall by 9 per cent to 13.2 per cent in the next polls from 22.2 per cent in 2017.

The Congress, which is vying for a revival in the state since it has been out of power since 1989, is lilely to win 7.9 per cent of the votes, just a per cent higher than its share in 2017.

Even though the BJP and its allies will get around 212 seats in the 403-member Assembly and comfortably cross the majority mark, their seat tally would fall by 100 compared to the 325 seats they had won in 2017.

The SP, on the other hand, is set to be the Opposition with 151 to 163 seats, the survey said.

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The BSP which is weakening in the state is likely to win 12 to 24 seats while the Congress is projected to grab around six to 10 seats, the tracker said.

Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, with a 41 per cent approval rate, is the most likely chief ministerial candidate , followed by SP chief and former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav who has a vote of 33.5 per cent. While only 15 per cent people want BSP chief Mayawati to be the chief minister, Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi has a popularity vote of only 4.3 per cent.