COVID hit life expectancy worse than World War II: Study

COVID has affected life expectancy in a way the world, especially Europe, hasn’t witnessed since World War II.

Scientists have analysed and collated data from 29 countries – including several European nations, the US and Chile – to conclude that the pandemic has “wiped out years of progress in increasing life expectancy”. Western Europe has been the worst affected, says the study, led by scientists at Oxford’s Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science.

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The worst effects were seen among males in the US, with a decline of 2.2 years relative to 2019 levels, followed by Lithuanian males (1.7 years). In fact, the trend visible in most of the subject countries was that males experienced larger life expectancy declines than females.

The study found that life expectancy losses this time have been more than what were recorded at the time of dissolution of the eastern bloc in central and eastern Europe.

Dr José Manuel Aburto, a co-lead author of the study, told The Guardian: “For western European countries such as Spain, England and Wales, Italy, Belgium, among others, the last time such large magnitudes of declines in life expectancy at birth were observed in a single year was during the second world war.”

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The Office for National Statistics in the UK noted that COVID indeed reduced life expectancy for men in the country by half for the first time in 40 years. Effectively it means a child born between 2018 and 2020 may live until he is 79, down from 79.2 for the 2015-17 period.

Aburto further said: “Females in eight countries and males in 11 countries experienced losses larger than a year. To contextualise, it took on average 5.6 years for these countries to achieve a one-year increase in life expectancy recently: progress wiped out over the course of 2020 by Covid-19.”

Dr Ridhi Kashyap, another co-lead author, said the scientists took into account the limitations in counting COVID deaths, like inadequate testing or misclassification. “The fact that our results highlight such a large impact that is directly attributable to COVID-19 shows how devastating a shock it has been for many countries,” said Kashyap, adding that the larger impact of the pandemic can only be known by seeking more disaggregated data from many more countries, including low- and middle-income countries.

Life expectancy for males has fallen in England, from 79.5 years in 2015-17 to 79.3 years in 2018-2, and Scotland from 77 to 76.8. But it has risen slightly in Northern Ireland from 78.4 to 78.7, while staying broadly unchanged in Wales at 78.3.

In the US, most deaths were reported in the working age category (those below the age of 60). In contrast, Europe recorded most deaths in the above 60 category.