Ban diesel four-wheelers in cities with 10 lakh population by 2027: Panel

A report commissioned by the oil ministry has suggested that diesel-powered four-wheelers should be banned in all cities with a population of over 10 lakh by 2027 and replaced with electric and gas-fuelled vehicles.

The report of the committee headed by former Oil Secretary Tarun Kapoor also suggested phasing out motorcycles, scooters, and three-wheelers with internal combustion engines by 2035.

No diesel buses should be added in urban areas in about 10 years, said the panel, which submitted its report to the government in February. The government is yet to accept the report.

EVs the optimal solution

“EVs may be promoted as the optimal solution in preparing for phasing out internal combustion engine two/three-wheel vehicles by 2035. In the intermediate period, policy support for ethanol-blended fuel with an increasing blend ratio needs to be given,” the report said.

Also read: Budget 2023: Fully imported cars, including EVs, to cost more

It called for four-wheelers, including passenger cars and taxis, to partially shift to electric and partially to ethanol-blended petrol with almost 50% share in each category.

“Diesel-driven four-wheelers may be eliminated as soon as possible. Therefore, a ban on diesel-powered four-wheelers in all million-plus cities and all towns with high pollution has to be enforced in five years, i.e., by 2027,” the report said.

CNG as transition fuel

For transitioning to EVs, CNG has been suggested as a transition fuel (up to 10–15 years).

“Vehicles with flex-fuel capabilities and hybrids may be promoted in the short and medium terms. This can be done through the application of fiscal tools like taxation,” it said.

To boost electric vehicles’ use in the country, the government should consider a “targeted extension” of incentives given under the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles scheme (FAME) to beyond March 31, the report said.

The report favoured new registrations of only electric-powered city delivery vehicles from 2024 and suggested higher use of railways and gas-powered trucks for the movement of cargo.

Also read: Himachal Pradesh plans to make entire bus fleet electric by 2025

India’s net-zero target

These steps will help India achieve the goal of cutting its emissions to net zero by 2070. Net-zero, or becoming carbon neutral, means not adding to the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

India is the world’s fourth largest emitter of carbon dioxide after China, the US, and the EU. But its huge population means its emissions per capita are much lower than other major world economies. India emitted 1.9 tonnes of CO2 per head of population in 2019, compared to 15.5 tonnes for the US and 12.5 tonnes for Russia that year.

The government has set a target to get 50% of the nation’s energy from renewable resources by 2030, and to reduce total projected carbon emissions by one billion tonne by the same year. For transition, it is looking to boost the use of natural gas, which is less polluting than liquid fuels like diesel, in industries and automobiles. India aims to raise the share of natural gas in its energy mix to 15% by 2030 from 6.7% now.

2040 peak

The report said petrol and diesel demand in India is expected to peak in 2040 and decline after that due to the electrification of vehicles. LPG demand is expected to decline after 2030 due to the electrification of cooking and reduce to zero with 100 per cent electrification by 2070.

Also read: 5 crore electric vehicles on Indian roads by 2030: KPMG report

The demand for aviation fuel will continue to grow at 3.5% CAGR but will be gradually substituted by sustainable fuel. Naphtha demand is expected to rise at 4.5% CAGR (2030-50) and 2.3% compound annual growth rate CAGR (2050-70) because of increasing demand for petrochemicals.

“The rate of transition in fossil fuel consumption is primarily dependent on the shift in the auto sector to EVs. With an aggressive transition to EVs due to policy mandates, there will be accelerated repurposing/closure of refineries for renewable energy/biofuel production and reduction of overall carbon footprint,” it said.

(With agency inputs)