Gotabaya’s ‘hero’s return’ a sign that Rajapaksas still have a chance at Lankan politics

If former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had any fears about returning to Sri Lanka following his humiliating exit from the country on July 13, the welcome that awaited him at the Bandaranaike International Airport on the night of September 2 should have put those fears to rest.

Welcome of a ‘hero’

Many senior members of Rajapaksa’s party the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) were on hand to welcome him and former First Lady Loma Rajapaksa at the country’s main airport, located about 32 km from Colombo. They included several Cabinet Ministers and dozens of other SLPP Parliamentarians. Photographs and visuals distributed by the media unit of one minister showed a smiling former President and his wife surrounded by SLPP politicians.

From the airport, Gotabaya and his wife were driven in a heavily guarded military convoy to a government bungalow in the posh Colombo 7 suburb – home to many of the country’s elite and foreign diplomats. The bungalow will be his new home and has been accorded to him by the state. Gotabaya is entitled to it and all other privileges that come from being a former President. He will also have his personal protection team comprising police and army commandos.

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A stream of visitors has been calling on Gotabaya from the day following his return. First to arrive was his brother, former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. Other notable figures who have visited him since then include the deputy speaker of Parliament, provincial governors, former senior officers of the military and religious leaders.

Though it has since fractured into several different groups, the core of the SLPP remains fiercely loyal to the Rajapaksas. They have greeted Gotabaya more as a conquering hero rather than a President who was forced to flee his country due to months of street protests. He was the first Executive President in Sri Lanka’s history to have stepped down before the expiration of his term of office.

A second coming in the offing?

Some in the party have even called on him to reenter active politics. At a press conference before Gotabaya’s arrival, two SLPP MPs told journalists that they were open to the possibility of making Gotabaya Rajapaksa the Prime Minister. There is a path open for Gotabaya to do that if he wishes. The SLPP has several “National List” seats of unelected members who have been nominated to serve in Parliament. If one of them resigns, it would pave the way for Gotabaya to be appointed to replace them and for the SLPP to nominate him as PM. One national list MP, Seetha Arambepola, told the media this week that she was prepared to offer her seat to the President. She however, said the matter had not been formally discussed.

Others in the SLPP though, think it’s highly unlikely that the former President would wish to reenter national politics given all that happened in the two and half years he was President. Even before he was forced to step down, Gotabaya had publicly stated that he had no wish to contest for another presidential term. This was during the height of the street protests against him and it was apparent that he did not believe he could win another election if he contested.

Arrests pave way for return of Rajapaksas

Gotabaya’s return though, is yet another example of the remarkable political tenacity the Rajapaksa family has displayed in the face of overwhelming odds. For many months, the street protests echoed with slogans of “Gota Go Home,” “Rajapaksas Go Home,” and even “Rajapaksas Go to Jail.” People were furious over the Rajapaksa government’s handling of the country’s economic crisis and over numerous allegations of corruption involving the Rajapaksa family. When armed thugs allied to former Premier Mahinda Rajapaksa attacked peaceful protesters near the Presidential Secretariat on May 9, much of the country erupted in retaliatory violence where the Rajapaksa family’s properties too were targeted. Even their ancestral home was burned and protesters destroyed a museum built to honour the parents of the Rajapaksa brothers. For weeks afterwards, no one associated to the Rajapaksa family could step out in public and remained mostly in hiding.

That has changed dramatically since the SLPP-dominated Parliament elected Ranil Wickremesinghe as President on July 20. Wickremesinghe is deemed to be a close ally of the Rajapaksas. Moreover, since he assumed the presidency, police have gone after those involved in the ‘Aragalaya’ (struggle) that forced Gotabaya to resign. There are arrests on a daily basis and many continue to remain in remand custody. Police have said most of the arrests are linked to the attacks targeting SLPP politicians, as well as storming and “illegal occupation” of government buildings – namely the President’s Office, Prime Minister’s Office and the official residences of the President and the Prime Minister.

Suspects are also being arrested in the torching of President Wickremesinghe’s private residence on the night of July 9. Many activists who were at the forefront of the protests have also been arrested.

Gradually, the Rajapaksas are stepping out and the SLPP is using their clout to try and rebuild its battered image. The party has released photographs of former Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa, who is its National Organiser, meeting with party officials. SLPP seniors have acknowledged that Basil Rajapaksa remains firmly in control of the party which he founded. Mahinda Rajapaksa meanwhile, has also been meeting party officials regarding reorganising efforts and has been out in public more often. On September 3, he was the chief guest when the SLPP launched its “Leadership Academy for Political Excellence” in Colombo. But it is Mahinda’s eldest son and heir apparent Namal who has been the most visible. Over the past few weeks, he has met with foreign diplomats, chaired meetings and given interviews to the media.

Fate of SLPP hangs in balance

The governing SLPP’s whole-hearted embrace of the Rajapaksas is not without risk. The party has continued to insist that its core Sinhala Buddhist voter base is intact and the Rajapaksas are still immensely popular, especially in rural Sri Lanka. Yet it has refused to put that claim to the test, stating that the immediate issues of the people must be resolved before one even thinks about an election. The current Parliament was elected in August 2020 for a five year term so SLPP politicians argue that as the people gave them a mandate for five years, Parliament must serve out its full term. As per the present Constitution, Parliament can only be dissolved in two ways prior to the full completion of its term. One way is for a resolution to dissolve Parliament to be approved by a 2/3 majority of the 225-member legislature. The other option is for the President to dissolve Parliament at the completion of two and a half years of its term. Accordingly, President Wickremesinghe would be able to dissolve Parliament after March next year.

Also read: Sri Lanka: Public anger palpable as Gotabaya actually goes

It has been reported that the President has assured the SLPP that he has no plans to take this second option. Yet, given that Wickremesinghe’s economic policies diverge considerably from the SLPP, there are fears that it is only a matter of time before the relationship breaks down. The SLPP also seems to acknowledge that calls for an early general election may grow louder if the economic crisis worsens in the coming months. It is launching its rebuilding operation with this in mind. Only time will tell whether these efforts will bear fruit or whether the party will face political annihilation at the ballot box.