India could become COVID-19 hotspot by April 15: Experts
Even as India is taking several preventive measures to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus, experts feel that the country could be the next hotspot of the COVID-19 infection.
Even as India is taking several preventive measures to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus, experts feel that the country could be the next hotspot of the COVID-19 infection.
According to a report in Bloomberg News, experts have warned the world’s second-most populous country that the containment measures which worked for other Asian countries may not be successful when it comes to India.
The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) on Tuesday (March 17) announced that the South Asian nation is in stage 2 of the virus, which indicates that the coronavirus is spreading in the country via local transmission. However, to determine whether community transmission, i.e., stage 3 exists in the region and to curb the possibility, the apex medical body stepped up the testing capacity to 8,000 samples per day from the present 500.
Balram Bhargava, Director-General of ICMR, also said that to date there is “no evidence” of community transmission.
In a bid to cut out the chances of the same, the Centre has announced closure of the country’s borders, testing incoming travellers and contact tracing from those tested positive with COVID-19.
India, to date, has 151 confirmed cases of which there have been three deaths and about 14 people have recovered.
Meanwhile, experts opine that considering the country’s 1.3 billion-strong population, the government’s efforts as of now will not be enough to contain the spread of the virus.
Other measures like widespread testing and social distancing may be infeasible in cities with a high population density and rickety health infrastructure, read a report in Bloomberg.
Mass testing to be crucial
Even as the rise in total number of cases have been fairly slow until now, Dr. T. Jacob John, the former head of the Indian Council for Medical Research’s Centre for Advanced Research in Virology, a government-funded institution feels “the number will be 10 times higher by April 15,” Bloomberg quoted him as saying.
“They are not understanding that this is an avalanche,” said John, who was also chairman of the Indian Government Expert Advisory Group on Polio Eradication and chief of the National HIV/AIDS Reference Centre at the Christian Medical College in Vellore, adding that “as every week passes, the avalanche is growing bigger and bigger.”
Virus-hit Maharashtra = India’s economic crisis
Maharashtra has been the worst-affected state in India with 42 confirmed cases reported until Wednesday and even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the South Asian nation is doing it’s best to fight the spread of the virus, it may not be enough to save the densely-populated financial capital Mumbai from COVID-19.
Related news: 10 updates: Masks debut in RS as COVID-19 cases touch 151 in India
Compared to other countries, India’s economy has been affected much till now, however, with the coronavirus gripping Mumbai with each passing day and the capital city being the benchmark of stock exchange, the virtual lockdown of the city with highest urbanisation may not suffice the purpose.
“Maharashtra is in the second stage at the moment. But if we don’t curtail or stop the infection from spreading this contagious disease we could slip to stage three and that would mean a spike in the number of infections. We have to contain this disease under any circumstances,” Rajesh Tope, Maharashtra’s health minister told reporters in Mumbai.
Population, a challenge
India’s population density, where 420 people live on each square kilometer (about 0.4 of a square mile), compared with 148 per square kilometer in China and the cities being crammed with slums where the living conditions are not up to the mark, the country may face several challenges.
“While South Korea was able to test even asymptomatic people, India’s population makes it extremely difficult,” said Dr. K. Srinath Reddy, adjunct professor of epidemiology at the T.H. Chan School of Public Health at Harvard University and president of the New Delhi-based health think-tank Public Health Foundation of India, told Bloomberg.
India on high alert
“Social distancing is something often talked about but only works well for the urban middle class. It doesn’t work well for the urban poor or the rural population where its extremely difficult both in terms of compactly packed houses, but also because many of them have to go to work in areas which are not necessarily suitable for social distancing,” Dr. Reddy added.
Giving the testing protocols a major revision, India on Tuesday permitted NABL-accredited private labs to conduct coronavirus tests. But the government has yet to release the list of authorized labs, according to Dr Lokesh Kumar Sharma, spokesperson of the ICMR said.
India on verge of becoming pandemic?
The World Health Organisation (WHO) declared pandemic coronavirus has infected 174,000 worldwide, with deaths topping 7000.
But what’s worrying is the pattern of its spread in the nations such as South Korea and Italy — the worst-affected countries outside of mainland China, which witnessed the numbers growing slower at an initial phase and shooting up within a week.
South Korea, which had a 2,000% jump in cases in a week last month, slowed the outbreak and deaths by testing hundreds of thousands of people in clinics and drive-through stations.
Related news: COVID-19: Lockdown in south India; focus shifts to combating spread
More than 5,200 potential cases have been identified through contact-tracing and put under surveillance in India, the health ministry said late Monday. Last week it suspended most visas and decided on Friday to limit international traffic through land crossings, reported PTI.
The country’s response to the coronavirus spread is driven by the limitations of its public health system, Reddy said.
According to a United Nations report, India’s health-care spending is among the lowest in the world — just 3.7% of its Gross Domestic Product which led to overcrowded public health centres and unaffordable private hospitals.
“I have reservations about our capacities to deal with this,” said Reddy. “Right now our responses are strategic to the extent that our resources permit.”