Jair Bolsonaro outperformed expectations with his reelection bid, proving that the right-wing wave he rode to the presidency remains a force in Brazil and giving him and opponent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva three weeks to pursue votes ahead of a winner-take-all runoff.
The two diametrically opposed candidates garnered more than 90% of the vote in Sundays first round, leaving their competitors far behind. Da Silva came just 1.6 percentage points shy of outright victory.
Political analysts say Bolsonaro now will seek to capitalise on an unexpectedly strong showing by the right wing as a whole to win endorsements from politicians seeking advantageous alliances, while da Silva reaches out to moderates to push him over the top.
Endorsements from the now-eliminated presidential candidates could also help the two survivors.
The election will determine whether a leftist returns to the helm of the worlds fourth-largest democracy or whether Bolsonaro can advance his far-right agenda for another term.
Many polls had indicated leftist former President da Silva had a significant lead, with some suggesting he could even clinch a first-round victory. Most showed margins that neared or exceeded double digits. But Bolsonaro came within just five points of da Silva, forcing an October 30 runoff.
While da Silvas tally of 48.4% of the vote was within most polls margins of error, Bolsonaros 43.2% far exceeded most of them. The presidents allies running for Congress and governorships also outperformed polls.
The far-right has shown great resilience in the presidential and in the state races, said Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo.
Speaking after the results, da Silva said he was excited to have a few more weeks of campaigning and the opportunity to go face-to-face with Bolsonaro and make comparisons between the Brazil he built with the Brazil we built during our administrations.
I always thought that we were going to win these elections. And I tell you that we are going to win this election. This, for us, is just an extension, da Silva said.
Meanwhile, Bolsonaro seemed to appeal to poorer voters, who make up a significant chunk of da Silvas base. He highlighted high inflation that has boosted the cost of food and has hurt the approval ratings of leaders worldwide.
I understand there is a desire from the population for change, but some changes can be for the worse he said. Bolsonaro added that he wanted to keep Brazil from adopting leftist economic policies that would put it on a troubled economic path similar to those of Argentina and Venezuela.
It still isnt clear why polls missed the mark on support for Bolsonaro and right-wing candidates.
Some analysts suggest voters had been embarrassed to tell pollsters they backed Bolsonaro and instead listed another candidate, said Arilton Freres, director of Curitiba-based Instituto Opinião. “But that in itself doesnt explain everything, he added, saying outdated census data also may have had an impact on the design of the polls.
Bolsonaro and allies have repeatedly cast doubt on the polls, and pointed instead great turnouts at his street rallies. Many people were carried away by the lies propagated by the research institutes, Bolsonaro wrote Monday on his Twitter profile.
The rights positive night extended to races for congressional seats and governorships, especially candidates with Bolsonaros blessing.
Bolsonaro said his partys showing could bring fresh endorsements ahead of the runoff as other parties strike alliances in exchange for support. Bolsonaros Liberal Party will surpass da Silvas Workers Party to become the biggest in the Senate and the Lower House, with a total of 112 seats, or 23 more than its main rival though still ar short of what is needed to pass legislation by itself.
The rights stronger-than-expected showing in Brazils populous southeast especially could benefit Bolsonaro, analysts say. His former infrastructure minister topped the race to govern Sao Paulo and will go to a runoff. The governor of Rio de Janeiro, an ally, won reelection outright, and the governor of the second most populous state, Minas Gerais, was poised to back Bolsonaro this week.
Meanwhile, da Silvas campaign is likely to focus on winning over the centrist vote, especially in Brazils most populous state, Sao Paulo, where da Silvas politically moderate running mate, Geraldo Alckmin, is a former governor, independent political analyst Thomas Traumann said.
Bolsonaro and da Silva could also seek endorsements from now-eliminated candidates. Analysts say there was a last-minute migration of votes from some of those candidates to Bolsonaro.
Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes, the third- and fourth-place finishers, together earned 8.5 million votes. The difference between Bolsonaro and da Silva in the first round amounted to 6.1 million votes, and more than 30 million people abstained.
Before the election, Tebet hinted she might urge her backers to vote for da Silva and in televised debates, she vehemently criticized Bolsonaros four years in office. After results came out on Sunday, she gave her coalition of political parties 48 hours to clarify who it will back, saying after that deadline she will make her own position public.
Center-left Gomes was a minister in da Silvas government before breaking with him, and in 2018 became openly hostile. That would make a possible endorsement more awkward, despite their ideological common ground, said Marco Antônio Teixeira, a public administration professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a university in Sao Paulo.
I want to make something clear: Lula is the favorite, period. As the momentum is Bolsonaros, people forget that, Traumann said.
Even if da Silva does come out on top, his administration will face tough opposition in Congress, according to Rey.
Part of the big centrist bloc will be Bolsonarista, although we dont yet to what extent, she said. And Lula will have to deal with this.
___ Bridi reported from Brasilia. AP writers Mauricio Savarese, Daniel Politi and David Biller reported from Sao Paulo, Curitiba and Rio de Janeiro.
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