Closing the skies to Russia: What it means to passengers, aviation firms

With Moscow intensifying its attack on Ukraine, several countries across the world have closed their airspaces to Russian airlines. The latest to join the list is the US, whose President Joe Biden said in his State of the Union address that Washington is banning Russian aircraft from US airspace. The ban covers both scheduled passenger flights and cargo and charter flights.

Earlier, Canada, Norway, the UK and the EU had closed off their airspaces to Russian aircraft. “Our airspace will be closed to every Russian plane — and that includes the private jets of oligarchs, too,” emphasised Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.

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Even ahead of the EU announcement, individual European countries such as Germany, France and Italy had taken such a move for their respective regions. “Our European skies are open skies. They’re open for those who connect people, not for those who seek to brutally aggress,” said Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said on Twitter, in an obvious reference to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

What does the shutting of airspace entail?

When a nation or a bloc shuts its airspace to the aircraft of a certain country, the latter’s planes will not be able to fly over that particular geography or land at any airports within it. In this case, the control towers in the banning nations make sure no airline from Russia crosses its airspace, leave alone land in one of its airports. Any slip-up is taken seriously and investigated.

How far does the air blockade impact Russia?

Now, Russian flights can technically not fly eastward to North America, or westward to Europe. These are key routes for the carriers, and the economic loss can be severe. The flight schedules will be in a disarray, hurting passengers, too.

Till date, the Western nations and NATO have kept off direct participation in the war, and used only financial sanctions to thwart the Kremlin. The shutting of airspaces is seen as a major escalation in the economic war against Putin.

Will Moscow retaliate? How?

Russia is not likely to take the air blockade lying down. It has already barred airlines from Britain, Bulgaria and Poland, among the first nations to block its flights, in a tit-for-tat move. An expansion of the ban could significantly hurt Western airlines. Having lost access to Russia’s airways, they are likely to divert flights south, which is circuitous and hence expensive.

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For American carriers in particular, an imminent Russian ban could translate into longer flight times. They could also require crew changes on East Coast routes to Asia, which they may no longer be able to access via Russia. Thanks to longer flight times, refuelling at Anchorage, Alaska, might also become a necessity. In particular, US flights to India, China, Japan and Korea are expected to be impacted.

The aviation industry is just picking up the pieces after the COVID pandemic, so the airspace ban and its impact are indeed bad news.

What’s the collateral damage?

The biggest sufferers would be passengers. They would have to shell out more for air tickets plus endure longer flight timings. Logistics firms, for whom speed is of the essence, could similarly pay a big price for the air blockades and resultant flight delays.

Another sector that could be hit hard is the aircraft leasing industry. According to a Reuters report, leasing firms, most of which are based in Ireland, have always viewed Russian carriers as more reliable partners when it comes to jet rental agreements than any of their global peers. Citing statistics from analytics firm Cirium, the report said Russian airlines have 980 passenger jets in service. Of these, 515 are leased from foreign firms. That presents a big loss of business to the leasing firms.

The share price of Dublin-based AerCap, the world’s biggest aircraft leasing firm, fell 12.7 per cent after it said it would stop leasing aircraft to Russian carriers. Its American peer Air Lease’s share declined 8 per cent.