At risk of losing caste combination, PM, Shah plan rally blitzkrieg in eastern UP
Faced with the prospect that the non-yadav, non-jatav dalit coalition is coming apart, the BJP has planned a blitzkrieg of Modi-Shah rallies in eastern UP where 27 crucial seats are going to polls in the remaining two phases. This coalition had helped the BJP win the 2014 elections.
Voting for 425 Parliamentary seats out of the total 543 seats of the country is over with the fifth phase of polling. Of the remaining are 27 crucial seats in Uttar Pradesh. While 14 of these seats of ‘Poorvanchal’ or eastern Uttar Pradesh go to polls on May 12 in the sixth phase, the last 13 will see polling on May 19, which is the last phase.
The BJP is very much aware of the importance of these 27 seats of Uttar Pradesh. The saffron party had swept 25 of these seats, with its ally Apna Dal winning one seat. A lone seat went to the kitty of the Samajwadi Party. In 2018 by-polls BJP lost Gorakhpur seat to the opposition.
The BJP is planning an all-guns-blazing campaign in eastern Uttar Pradesh. Sources say that a high-level committee comprising UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, State general secretary Sunil Bansal, party’s Gujarat leader Gordhan Zadafia, party’s national vice-president Dushyant Gautam and senior Madhya Pradesh leader Narottam Mishra has been formed to oversee the last two phases of polls in the state. This high-powered committee has been set up to ensure that the rainbow coalition of non-yadav OBC and non-jatav dalits comes back to the party fold – the worry of the top BJP leadership is not without cause.
Vote transfer worrying BJP
Party leaders have gauged that there has been widespread of transfer of vote between the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party in the first five phases of polling in the state. The real optics was Akhilesh Yadav’s wife Dimple touching the feet of BSP Supremo Mayawati at the alliance rally in Kannauj. Then came Mayawati’s statement asking her cadre to vote for Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi in Rae Bareli and Amethi respectively hinting at post-poll opposition unity. Earlier Mayawati had launched scathing attacks on both the BJP and the Congress.
BJP leaders are of the opinion that there should be more rallies by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah and the narrative should be Modi magic and nationalism. Sources say that six additional rallies by the Prime Minister will now happen in eastern UP, while the plan earlier was a total of five. Similarly, five to six mega rallies of party president Amit Shah have been planned for the same region.
The kurmi, kushwaha and nishad vote banks are major worries for the BJP. The SP-BSP alliance, in a bid to break the rainbow coalition, have fielded kurmi candidates from Allahabad, Shrawasti and Basti seats. Former Member of Parliament from Machlisshahar and nishad leader, Ram Charitra Nishad, who was this time denied party ticket, left the BJP to join the Samajwadi Party. By fielding Nathuni Prasad Kushwaha from Kushi Nagar, the alliance has tried to get a grasp on the kushwaha voters of this seat and adjacent seats as well.
The alliance has fielded a strong Nishad leader, Ram Bhuwaal Nishad from Gorakhpur seat against BJP’s actor-turned politician Ravi Kishan Shukla. This seat is now a prestigious one for UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath as it is his bastion. The alliance candidate is giving a tough fight here banking largely on nishad, yadav, Muslim and dalit votes. A second successive loss of Gorakhpur could cause a major dent to the image of Yogi Adiytanath.
Headaches pile up for saffron party
Former minister of the Yogi government, OP Rajbhar of the Suhaldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) has become another major headache for the BJP. Denied two seats by the senior party, he has fielded his candidates from over 30 seats. He will dent the BJP vote base by at least forty to sixty thousand if not more in crucial seats of Ghosi, Gazipur and Balia. And in close multi-cornered fights, these number of votes could be a decisive factor. Rajbhar has appealed to voters of Sant Kabir Nagar, Bansgaon and Maharajganj to vote in favour of the SP-BSP alliance candidates as nominations of its candidates were rejected in these Lok Sabha constituencies.
BJP leaders are very much aware that as far as non-Yadav OBC and Non-jatav dalits are concerned, things are not as good as they were in 2014. They know that the caste cauldron in Uttar Pradesh, this time around, may brew trouble for the saffron camp and, hence, this last moment britzkrieg by PM Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah.
(Vivek Avasthi is Senior Editor – Politics with Business India Television – BTVI)