Andhra Pradesh elections: Keen tussle between TDP, YSRCP on cards

A multi-cornered contest is on cards for simultaneous elections the Andhra Pradesh Assembly and Lok Sabha scheduled on April 11. However, in a crowded electoral scene, the ruling Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the main opposition YSR Congress Party appear to be locked in a neck and neck race with Jana Sena of actor Pawan Kalyan likely to tilt the balance.

With an experience of four decades in politics, Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu hopes that people will hand him a fresh mandate to continue his mission to rebuild a revenue-deficit State rendered without a capital after Hyderabad went to Telangana.

He is locked in a fierce fight with YSRCP chief YS Jaganmohan Reddy, a young leader determined to repeat what his father YS Rajasekhara Reddy had done in 2004 by leading Congress to a massive victory over Naidu, the longest-serving chief minister in the history of undivided Andhra Pradesh.

Fresh from 3,648-km-long state-wide padyatra, 46-year-old Jagan is confident that his eight-year-long wait will come to an end. After losing his father in a helicopter crash in 2009, Jagan’s claim to be his successor was rejected by Congress high command. Banking on the legacy of his father, Jagan floated YSRCP in 2011.

Jagan spent 16 months in jail in cases relating to the investments his businesses received from private firms and individuals as a quid pro quo for government favours when his father was the chief minister.

2014 results

In 2014 elections held in the aftermath of bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, people of residuary state of Andhra Pradesh had reposed faith in Chandrababu Naidu, apparently for his vast experience in the undivided State and the role he played in development of Hyderabad as the information technology hub.

The TDP won 102 seats in 175-member Assembly while its then alliance partner BJP secured 4 seats. In an election, which saw Congress party being completely wiped out due to public anger over bifurcation, YSRCP emerged as the only opposition bagging 67 seats. Jagan’s party polled 45.01 percent votes, a mere 1.6 percent less than the votes polled by TDP-BJP combine.

Out of 25 Lok Sabha seats, TDP bagged 15 seats while BJP got two seats with the total vote share of the combine being 47.95%, 2.34% higher than the votes polled by YSRCP, which got eight seats. Since then YSRCP received series of setbacks as nearly two dozen MLAs and two MPs defected to the TDP as Naidu further consolidated himself.

It has been smooth sailing for TDP-BJP combine for nearly four years as they shared power both at the Centre and in the State. However, in March last year TDP walked out of BJP-led NDA, citing its refusal to accord Special Category Status to the State, a commitment made by then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in the Parliament and which Narendra Modi as the prime ministerial candidate had promised to fulfill.

TDP also accused BJP of failing to fulfill the other commitments made in Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Act. The other reason for Naidu pulling out of NDA was BJP warming up to Jagan. Since then, Naidu has been targetting Modi for the ‘betrayal’ and for secret deal with the ‘corrupt’.

The TDP chief also added Telangana Chief Minister K. Chandrashekhar Rao to his list of conspirators. “Delhi Modi, Telangana Modi and Andhra Modi are working together under a conspiracy against Andhra Pradesh and TDP,” Naidu said repeatedly.

‘Andhra self-respect’

The TDP leader is looking to fight the elections around the narrative of ‘conspiracy’ along with the slogan of ‘Andhra self-respect’. He is targeting YSR Congress for mortgaging Andhra self-respect with KCR. Naidu is trying to repeat what KCR did successfully in Telangana Assembly elections held in December, in which Naidu had campaigned aggressively.

The recent data breach row following a case booked in Hyderabad against a company providing IT services to TDP helped Naidu to sharpen his attacks on YSR Congress and TRS. While police booked IT Grids for having access to personal and sensitive data of Andhra Pradesh citizens, TDP accused TRS of stealing TDP’s data and passing it on to YSR Congress.

However, Naidu’s flip-flop on Special Category Status (SCS) and ties with Congress raised many a questions. After accepting special package offered by Modi government in lieu of SCS, he raked up the issue of SCS as the opposition had sharpened attacks on him for ‘bartering the State’s interests’

In a complete reversal of 36-year-old anti-Congress stand of TDP, Naidu joined hands with Congress, calling it ‘democratic compulsion’. TDP was part of  Congress-led ‘Maha Kutami’ or grand alliance to contest Assembly polls in Telangana. With the alliance suffering humiliating defeat, TDP and Congress charted their own course in Andhra Pradesh.

Though yet to recover from the severe drubbing it received in 2014, the Congress party announced that it will contest all Assembly and Lok Sabha seats on its own.

BJP is also going alone but may find the going tough to retain the seats it won in 2014.

The only party which will have alliance with others is actor Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena. It will have seat adjustment with the Left parties.

In the previous elections, Jana Sena had not contested but Pawan Kalyan had campaigned for BJP-TDP combine and shared dais with Narendra Modi and Chandrababu Naidu.

The actor later distanced himself from BJP after it refused to accord SCS to Andhra Pradesh and also found fault with TDP for failing to protect the State’s interest. With good following among youth and likely support from his Kapu community concentrated in some pockets of coastal Andhra, Pawan may make all the difference between the winner and the loser.