At a time when George Clooney was launching his new production Catch 22, made on the famous Joseph Heller World War II novel, a streaming venture on Hulu on May 17, DMK president MK Stalin was giving finishing touches to his operation Catch 22 in Tamil Nadu. In the number game to oust the Edappadi Palaniswami government of AIADMK, Stalin had to win almost all the 22 seats up for grabs in bypolls to the Tamil Nadu Assembly.
As counting began on May 23 morning for the 22 Assembly by-elections, the last phase of which was held on May 19, Stalin was hoping that the opposition DMK would make a complete sweep the byelections. The AIADMK has a strength of 113 in the Assembly excluding Speaker P Dhanapal, while the DMK has 88 MLAs, supported by Congress (8) and IUML (1), making a total of 97. The AMMK has one MLA, its leader TTV Dhinakaran. The DMK needed at least 21 victories in the bypolls to take its tally to 118. If it comes to power, one of its MLAs would have to be Speaker, leaving a voting strength of 117 in the House.
If the DMK wins only 10 to 12 of these Assembly bypolls, judging by the present trend, it may not suffice for the opposition party. With the presently available support of 97 MLAs, an addition of 12 would take it to 109. The AIADMK now has 113 MLAs. With even 10 victories now, it could improve its tally to around 123, a great level of safety in a House of 234.
However, things will not be all that easy for the Edappadi Palaniswami government in Tamil Nadu. A worrying factor for the AIADMK is that of three of its MLAs (Kallakurichi MLA A Prabhu, Vriddhachalam MLA VT Kalaiselvan and Aranthangi MLA E. Rathinasabapathy) support Dhinakaran. While the Speaker has sought their disqualification on the ground of going against the AIADMK based on a recommendation from the Government Whip, the SC has stayed any attempt to disqualify them. These three MLAs could vote against the government, at any rate, they may support the no-confidence motion against the Speaker, sought by the DMK. Two other MLAs, Karunas (Mukkulathor Pulipadai), and Tamimum Ansari (MJK), elected on AIADMK ticket, could also back Dhinakaran if push comes to shove.
If these 5 MLAs vote against the AIADMK government, the effective strength of the AIADMK could be down by five. From a possible count of 123 MLAs, the AIADMK real strength could come down from 123 to 118. In a House of 234, with the Speaker not allowed to cast his vote except in the case of a tie, the AIADMK has to have the support of at least 117 MLAs for its government to survive. Which means, that the AIADMK could be safe for the time being, provided there is no further depletion of its strength.
Overall, the AIADMK has to win at least 9 of the 22 Assembly bypolls to scrape through and continue its government for some more time. If it wins less than 9 seats, it could still manage if it convinces some of these 5 AIADMK MLAs to remain in the party and support the Edappadi Palaniswami government.
The ruling AIADMK could also try to be in the saddle by using the disqualification weapon against some more MLAs that would give it additional breathing time.