IPL 2024 | What's playoffs scenario and how resurgent RCB has intensified tussle for top 4
With eight more league matches to go, seven teams are still in the hunt for the remaining three playoff spots
The race for the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2024 playoffs took a dramatic turn on Sunday (May 12) when Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) secured their fifth consecutive win of the season, beating Delhi Capitals by 47 runs.
Only Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) have officially booked a place in the playoffs at the end of the 62nd match. With eight more league matches to go, seven teams are still in the hunt for the remaining three playoff spots.
The triumph against DC has put RCB back in contention in the battle for top four slots, taking their overall points tally to 12 from 13 matches with a Net Run Rate of +0.387. RCB are next scheduled to take on the 5-time champions Chennai Super Kings (CSK), and it could be a virtual knockout contest between the two sides, with the winner of the contest going through to the playoffs while the loser will be knocked out.
At present, CSK is at the third spot in the points table, with 7 wins in 13 matches. Their NRR stands at +0.528. Sunrisers Hyderabad, who have an additional game in hand, have 14 points on the board with 7 wins in 12 matches. Their NRR stands at +0.406.
Playoffs scenarios
The last defeat against CSK caused concern in Rajasthan Royals (RR) camp but they are still in a comfortable position to qualify for playoffs with 16 points from 12 games. However, RR’s qualification will be confirmed if DC beat LSG on Tuesday (May 14), as only CSK and SRH can match or better that (other than KKR who are already ahead). If LSG win tomorrow, one win from their remaining two matches will ensure RR a playoff spot, and two wins will confirm a top-two finish. Even if RR lose both their matches, their elimination is highly unlikely.
CSK’s victory over RR has improved their chances of qualification. At present, they are placed third on the table with 7 wins from 13 matches and a net run rate of +0.528. If CSK win their last fixture against RCB, they will be through, given their healthy NRR. In case of a defeat, which will leave them on 14 points, they can miss a place in the top four as KKR, RR, SRH and LSG can finish above them.
The Sunrisers Hyderabad take on Gujarat Titans and Punjab Kings next in their campaign. A single victory in either of the matches might take them to the playoffs as they already have 14 points on the board and an impressive Net Run Rate. However, two defeats could put them in a spot as CSK, RCB and LSG can surpass them.
Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) are also in strong contention but they need to win big both of their remaining matches as the NRR is quite poor, at -0.769.
The Gujarat Titans and Delhi Capitals are also mathematically in the race for playoffs but both these sides can get a maximum of 14 points in the league stage of the campaign. Considering their inferior NRR, it wouldn't be practically possible for them to beat CSK, RCB, LSG or SRH in the top 4 battle.
How RCB can qualify
RCB's best-case scenario is SRH winning one or both of their matches to take the third spot in the points table and LSG not winning more than one.
The final spot in the IPL 2024 playoffs would then depend on the match between CSK and RCB, with the contest turning into a virtual eliminator in the playoffs race.
If it comes to that, RCB will surpass CSK's run-rate if they beat them by 18 runs or more (assuming they score 200 batting first). If RCB are given a target of 201, they'll have to chase it down with roughly 11 balls remaining.