Knockout game: How CSK and RCB can qualify for the playoff
RCB must win the match to have a shot at the last available spot but CSK may still qualify even if they lose, they only need to ensure that their NRR doesn't fall below RCB
The Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) are all set to take on Chennai Super Kings (CSK) in a virtual quarterfinal in Bengaluru on Saturday (May 18). The winner would qualify for the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2024 playoffs.
With five wins in a row, RCB are in a roaring form even as CSK have been up and down. As far as scenarios are concerned, it's easier for CSK to get through. They just have to go out, give it their best and win the match, or hope the game is rained out, which is not an unlikely scenarios considering the weather in Bengaluru.
It is the RCB which has a tough task on hand, as they have to win and win by a certain margin, assuming a score of 200, they need to win by 18 runs or chase the target down with about 11 balls to spare, to get into the top four.
With the threat of rain looming large, the chances of RCB’s qualification don’t look too promising. Already they are under pressure to score an impressive win to enable them to qualify for the playoffs. However, the scenario will become all the more complicated if it rains in Bengaluru.
In the case of a 5-over contest, RCB would need to restrict CSK to a maximum of 62 runs if they score 80 while batting first. Similarly, the team would need to restrict CSK to a maximum of 112 if they score 130 while batting first in a 10-over contest. On the other hand, if CSK set a target of 131 for RCB in 10 overs, they need to achieve it in mere 8.1 overs.
To put it precisely, RCB must win the match to have a shot at the last available spot. Interestingly, CSK may still qualify even if they lose. The only condition is that their Net Run-rate must not fall below RCB. A defeat against RCB won’t necessarily lead to elimination of CSK from the playoffs race. Since the Net Run Rate of CSK is better than Faf du Plessis & Co, even a narrow defeat against RCB would be enough to take CSK through.
The results over the years have been rather one-sided in favour of CSK. RCB have won only once in their last five meetings and only 31% of the all the matches in the IPL against them.