Karnataka set to overtake Delhi's tally of COVID cases by end of next week

Karnataka has been reporting a steady increase in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, with active cases now twice as many as last week.

The state now has 19,039 patients under treatment, and the tally will cross Delhi’s numbers by the end of next week, according to the latest data given by the health ministry.

Active cases have been declining over the last few weeks in the national capital. At present, Delhi has recorded 21,146 positive COVID-19 cases. The recovery rate in Delhi has increased to 78 percent, while Karnataka rate is at 41 percent—the lowest among all the states with the highest tally for coronavirus infections.

Among states, Maharashtra (9,893), Delhi (3,300), Gujarat (2,022), Tamil Nadu (1,829) and Uttar Pradesh (889) have reported the highest number of deaths. These states account for 81 percent of all COVID-related deaths in India so far. However, only one of them, Tamil Nadu, has seen a bigger spike than the national average in the last seven days.

Of the 10 states with the most active cases, Karnataka, Assam and Andhra Pradesh have reported the biggest percentage jumps in deaths as well as active cases in this period, based on the seven-day rolling averages.

It is worth noting that data quality on cases and deaths vary across countries and regions because of factors such as differences in testing standards, and in protocols being followed for recording covid-related deaths. For example, the rise in cases in Telangana late last month may simply reflect a reporting effect—it ramped up testing after it was criticised for not testing enough.

Among the 15 districts with the highest number of new cases in the last 48 hours, the biggest percentage spikes were reported by Bengaluru in Karnataka (23%), Ganjam in Odisha (21%) and Kamrup Metropolitan Area in Assam (18%). In absolute numbers, Thane and Pune in Maharashtra and Bengaluru in Karnataka reported the biggest increase in cases during this period, data compiled by howindialives.com last evening shows.

India has 283,407 active cases as of Saturday (July 11) morning, while 22,123 deaths have been recorded due to the virus. Active cases rose by 20 percent in the last seven days when compared with the same period last week (27 June to 4 July). The seven-day rolling averages have been considered for these calculations since they minimize the effect of volatile and delayed reporting.

Over the past few weeks, infections and deaths have been rising faster in India than in other COVID-affected countries.

India has the third highest number of active cases, after the United States and Brazil, and the eighth highest death toll in the world. Among high-fatality countries (more than 5,000 deaths), India has recorded the biggest spike in deaths as well as active cases over the past week.

With the rise in cases, India’s health facilities continue to be under severe strain. The risk of further spread is higher now since public movement has begun again.

India has reported 820,916 infected cases in all since the beginning of the outbreak in late January. If the pace of increase in cases since mid-June sustains, India can hit the 1,000,000 mark in six days’ time.

Out of all cases confirmed so far in India, 63 percent of them (515,385 patients) had been discharged by Saturday, as compared to 49 percent a month ago. India’s case fatality rate—2.7 deaths per 100 infections—is lower than the global average of 4.5 percent at the moment.