Maharashtra | Why cracks have surfaced in ruling Mahayuti ahead of assembly polls

The defeat in the recent Lok Sabha elections has brought rift in the ruling Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra to the fore, with the leaders of BJP, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP blaming each other for the debacle.

A prominent leader of the Shinde-led Shiv Sena, Ramdas Kadam, has openly blamed the other two alliance partners for Mahayuti’s lacklustre performance in the elections. He flayed the BJP for interfering in seat allocation and candidate selection, which he claimed led to the Shinde faction’s defeat in key constituencies.

“We lost Nashik, Hingoli, and Washim Lok Sabha seats due to the BJP’s interference, otherwise, Hemant Godse, Hemant Patil, and Bhawana Gawali would have been re-elected as Lok Sabha MPs. We hope the BJP will not make the same mistake in the upcoming state assembly elections,” he said.

Shinde camp slams BJP

"In Lok Sabha elections, whenever we decided to retain our traditional seats, the BJP too staked its claim over these seats. There is an urgent need to stop this practice if the alliance wants to win more seats in the state assembly elections. We want to contest at least 100 seats in the state assembly elections and I’m confident that we will surely win 90 seats out of it,” he said.

Kadam also hit out at Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, suggesting that the NCP leader’s early entry into Mahayuti negatively impacted the election results.

Another Shinde Sena leader, Sanjay Shirsat, earlier accused the BJP of “misleading” them through its poll surveys. “Had we not heeded their surveys, we would have cleared at least four more seats,” he claimed. On the other hand, some BJP leaders are regretting giving in to the Sena’s pressure for seats like Nashik, Mumbai South and Ramtek, all of which they lost.

Rift out in open

The simmering tension between the allies was evident when Ajit’s wife Sunetra Pawar filed her nomination to the Rajya Sabha from Maharashtra on June 13. While NCP leaders were present in full strength on the occasion, those from allies BJP and Shinde’s Shiv Sena were conspicuous by their absence.

Senior BJP leaders admit the alliance with Ajit Pawar had taken a toll on their poll prospects. “Our alliance with Ajit Pawar has turned out to be counterproductive,” said a senior BJP leader. He also emphasised the fact that an average BJP supporter considered Shinde a natural ally compared to the NCP.

The NCP’s feudal Maratha vote base also does not get along well with the upper castes and OBCs (Other Backward Classes) who form the core support base of the BJP. On the other hand, NCP sources said the BJP voters in the urban pockets of Baramati, especially Khadakwasla, Bhor and Purandar, did not turn out to vote for Sunetra, which led to her defeat.

At an RSS-BJP meeting in Pune earlier this week, some of their leaders said that allying with the NCP proved “detrimental” for the BJP.

A senior BJP functionary who attended the meeting said, “The BJP made a blunder by splitting the NCP and getting the Ajit Pawar faction as an alliance partner. It has gone against the BJP internally as well as publicly.”

RSS mouthpiece flays BJP

However, what added fuel to the fire was a piece in the RSS mouthpiece ‘Organiser’ by Sangh ideologue Ratan Sharda, slamming the BJP for forging an alliance with Ajit Pawar-led NCP.

“Maharashtra is a prime example of unnecessary politicking and avoidable manipulations. The breakaway NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar joined the ruling alliance though BJP and Shinde-led Sena had a comfortable majority. Sharad Pawar would have faded away in two-three years, while NCP would have lost vigour due to feud between Supriya Sule and Ajit Pawar. Why was this ill-advised step taken? BJP supporters were hurt because they had fought against this Congress ideology for years and were persecuted. In a single stroke, BJP reduced its brand value. After years of struggle to become numero uno in Maharashtra, it became just another political party without any difference,” wrote Sharda in the piece, ‘Modi 3.0: Conversation for course correction’.

Interestingly, the BJP was quite upbeat after “masterminding” the split in the NCP in July 2023, as the party believed that an alliance with the Ajit’s NCP faction would give them a stronger foothold in western Maharashtra, particularly in the prosperous sugar belt, which has 12 Lok Sabha and 70 assembly seats. It also believed that a split in the NCP would undermine the hold of veteran leader Sharad Pawar. However, its strategy backfired as the split in the NCP gave a new lease of life to Pawar and helped him rejuvenate his faction with the “public sympathy” in its favour. The faction led by senior Pawar emerged victorious on 8 out of the 10 Lok Sabha seats it contested.

The road ahead

The Mahayuti could win just 17 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state; the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) got 30, with a Congress-backed Independent notching up another win. The BJP won only nine seats, which was its worst performance since 1998. The NCP won just one seat out of the four it contested.

Among the major factors for the BJP’s poor performance in the Lok Sabha polls in the state, which was identified by the party’s core committee meeting held in Delhi Tuesday, was the lack of coordination between the alliance partners at the grassroots level.

Though there are speculations that the BJP may part ways with Ajit Pawar-led NCP prior to the assembly polls, the move is fraught with challenges. Despite internal feud, the party may have to continue its alliance with Shinde and Ajit. In this scenario, the BJP will have to first iron out the differences with its allies before it starts preparing for the assembly polls scheduled for later this year.