As Maratha quota row rages on, pressure mounts on BJP for caste census

Thanks to the escalating campaign for reservation for the Maratha community, the BJP is increasingly feeling isolated in politically crucial Maharashtra.

Like in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP remains the only political party in the ruling coalition and also earlier in the opposition which has not come out in favour of a caste-based census, nationally and in Maharashtra.

And the growing doses of violence in support of quotas for Marathas in government jobs and educational institutions has shaken up the ruling alliance in which the real glue is the BJP.

Both the Shiv Sena led by chief minister Eknath Shinde and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)'s breakaway group headed by Ajit Pawar favour a national and state survey to determine the population of various caste groups.

Govt mulls caste census as MLAs back protest 

The impact of the Maratha agitation is such that two MPs from Shinde’s Shiv Sena – Hemant Patil and Hemant Godse – have announced their resignation from the Lok Sabha in support of the protesters and their demand.

The BJP too has not remained untouched by the hunger strike by Maratha reservation activist Manoj Jarange, whose health continues to worry both the doctors as well as his activist colleagues.

The BJP MLA from Beed, Laxman Pawar, has resigned from the Maharashtra Assembly.

Protesters backing the demand for Maratha reservation had set fire to the office of NCP (Ajit Pawar) MLA Prakash Solanke and the house of NCP (Sharad Pawar) MLA Sandeep Kshirsagar, both in Beed district.

There have also been several incidents of violence and arson in parts of the state. “It is the government’s duty to give Maratha reservation within the ambit of law. We are working on a war footing,” Chief Minister Eknath Shinde said on Tuesday.

Amid the deteriorating situation, Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar said the state government will reach out to Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to know how his government conducted a caste survey so that a similar exercise could be replicated in Maharashtra.

“I am of the opinion that there should be a caste census here. With such an exercise, we will know the exact population of OBCs, SCs, STs, minorities and the general category as benefits are given as per the population proportion,” Pawar told a public meeting in Solapur.

BJP in a spot 

The problem for the BJP is that it joined hands with Shinde and Ajit Pawar to end its search for a strong Maratha leader in the state and to counter the threat from the Shiv Sena of former chief minister Uddhav Thackeray and NCP founder leader Sharad Pawar.

But the demand for a caste census by the NDA’s Maratha leadership threatens to isolate the BJP in the state and also within the alliance.

Until trouble erupted in Maharashtra, the demand for a caste census appeared to be confined to Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Maharashtra elects the second largest number of members to the Lok Sabha after Uttar Pradesh.

With the Lok Sabha elections only months away, the growing demand for a caste census is putting the BJP in a difficult situation within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) it leads.

Most of its allies want the BJP to come out with a detailed roadmap for a national caste census with a timeline for the project.

Allies will goad BJP for caste census: Experts 

Political analysts believe the regional allies will pressure the BJP to conduct a caste survey in Maharashtra as these regional parties are dependent on the support of caste groups for their political survival.

“These demands will not only come from Maharashtra but in every state where smaller parties are relying on the support of one or two caste groups,” said Yatindra Singh Sisodia, professor and director at the Madhya Pradesh Institute of Social Science Research, Ujjain.

Under pressure, the BJP has decided to carry out an outreach programme for the other backward classes (OBCs) in every region of Maharashtra. Starting from the Vidharba region, the campaign will be led by Deputy Chief Minister and BJP veteran Devendra Fadnavis and will be completed before the Lok Sabha battle next year.

“The main reason (we are doing this is) to increase our strength among the OBC community. The second is that we want to convey to the OBCs that though the BJP supports the Maratha reservation, we do not want the share of OBCs in the reservation to come down,” a senior BJP leader said.

BJP members also said that while Shinde and Ajit Pawar want a caste census, there is clarity among NDA partners that there will be no change in the reservation of the OBC community overall.

“If the BJP wants to contest the elections with NDA partners in 2024, it will have to compromise its position and accept the demand for a caste census,” said Sisodia. “The BJP cannot afford to annoy OBCs. The support of OBCs can play a decisive role for the BJP in the general elections,” said Sisodia.