Telangana election done, but not a moment of rest for KCR or Revanth

With the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) getting trounced in the Telangana Assembly election, Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR) withdrew to his farmhouse at Erravalli in Gajwel constituency on Sunday (December 3) evening.

The farmhouse is a fort of sorts. On a normal day, no human being can be allowed in the 2 km perimeter. The belief in Gajwel is that KCR more or less stays put in the ‘fort’ and lets very few into it.

It is also believed that he drafts his political strategies in solitude at the farmhouse. Popular tales abound of his Machiavellian strategies that originated from that location. None of it, of course, could salvage his party in the recent election.

There were reports on Sunday evening that he went to the farmhouse in his nephew's car despite sending a message that he was going to the Raj Bhavan in Hyderabad to resign as Chief Minister. He never went to Raj Bhavan.

Next round of machinations

KCR’s followers say the farmhouse is not about resting. Rather, he is likely to be mulling over the numbers that matter — electoral seats, and how he can better them with, say, the BJP and the AIMIM. He is expected to start afresh once the dust settles around the latest poll defeat.

It is said that this is how he targeted the TDP in the past. Similarly, he tried to decimate the Telangana unit of the Congress. It did not ultimately succeed, but he did make some headway in that direction.

Over the past decade, KCR drew strength from two sources. One was his political acumen and the other, the aura created by the Telangana movement, which he led at the time of state formation. With these two forces, he won the election twice and ruled the state for 10 years.

Will he recapture power with relative ease going forward? No, says senior journalist Nandiraju Radhakrishna.

The people's verdict has come almost as a coup against the BRS regime, so KCR can’t destabilise the Congress government, which Revanth Reddy is set to lead, with ease, Radhakrishna told The Federal Telangana.

“The verdict for the 2023 Assembly elections has come very strongly. The result shows that people have turned towards the Congress for governance. Therefore, if any Congress MLA plays mischief, they will be reprimanded by the people,” he said.

Party-hopping likely

Before the results were fully out, Bhadrachalam BRS MLA Dr Tellam Venkata Rao met Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee president A Revanth Reddy and extended his support. KCR is said to be upset by this.

Party-hopping is not viewed as a big crime in Telangana politics. Several MLAs, MLCs and senior leaders from the Congress and TDP joined the BRS citing better development prospects. There is no morality attached to it.

However, senior journalist Kondam Ashok Reddy commented that while the new government is unlikely to face instability immediately, thanks to the strong leadership of the Congress, reverse migration may also take place.

All those TDP and Congress leaders who defected to the BRS in the past 10 years are well known to Revanth Reddy. Ashok Reddy said that there is a possibility of them staging a comeback to the Congress.

For example, Chemakura Mallareddy, who was in KCR's cabinet, joined BRS from Telugu Desam, while another minister, Sabita Indra Reddy, defected from the Congress. They may all return to the Congress fold for the same reason that they joined the BRS, said Ashok Reddy.

“Even some ‘original’ BRS MLAs who won from a BRS ticket this time may not hesitate to switch sides to the Congress. Similarly, some ex-Congress and ex-TDP leaders in BRS would want to rejoin Congress. More importantly, the MLAs who won in the suburbs of Hyderabad may also prefer to come back to the  party," said Ashok Reddy.

Reddy community mobilisation

There is also a belief that Revanth may continue to mobilise the Reddy community and, as a result, many Reddy leaders in the BRS and BJP may switch loyalties to strengthen Revanth "for the sake of the state and their constituencies”.

"From the beginning, Revanth Reddy has been working for consolidation of Reddys against the Velama leadership of KCR. He openly declared that all the Reddys must unite as a political force,” remarked a Congress leader. “The consolidation of Reddys has greatly influenced the youth of the community. They have turned towards the Congress. This election clearly shows that the Reddys in rural areas who benefitted from KCR's schemes voted for Congress. Hence the mobilisation of the Reddys will gain further momentum” he said.

He said peer pressure is beginning to mount on the Reddy MLAs in the BRS and the possibility of some of them joining the Congress cannot be ruled out. “All this may not happen immediately because Revanth is not a man in a hurry. All these changes will happen without much effort from the Congress leadership," said the Congress leader, who did not want to be named.

Fear at the root?

Another argument is that some BRS leaders may come forward to join the Congress  even out of fear of the Revanth government. “Those MLAs benefitted from land grabs and illegal businesses in the last 10 years may switch sides in the hope that their activities will not come to light,” said Ashok Reddy, the journalist.

“They will not hesitate to join the Congress for their safety. Land grabbers have become very strong locally through political patronage in the KCR regime. During the election campaign, Revanth had warned that land grabbing and other irregularities would be probed into in Medchal, Rangareddy and Sangareddy districts and those found guilty would be severely punished. All of those involved may be ready to form a queue to join the Congress." 

But, Kesavulu Neta, a prominent political analyst, said destabilising attempts by the KCR and BJP can hardly be written off. “Don't underestimate KCR. He will definitely try to create problems for the Revanth Reddy government. That's why the Congress wants to form the government in a hurry,” he observed.

BJP stance

The stability of the Congress government would depend on what stand the BJP takes vis-a-vis BRS and KCR, he further said.

“The BJP has to decide whether it wants to cooperate with the BRS to destabilise Congress, or whether it wants to destabilise BRS itself so that it could carve out some space at the cost of the pink party in Telangana politics. Depending on that, KCR will cast his dice. There are factions in the Congress that may trigger the party’s destabilisation. Both BRS and BJP will try to exploit the fissures in the Congress.”

“Let's see how Revanth shields his government from the assaults of BRS and BJP,” Neta told The Federal Telangana.