Why the July 30 LSG bypolls will be crucial for the Left in Kerala

After the setback in the Lok Sabha elections, CPI(M) leaders in Kerala have been engaged in extensive discussions and formulating a strategy to regain public trust. They are implementing a systematic rectification drive across all levels of the party structure.

During internal discussions, it appears there is still no consensus on the root causes of the Lok Sabha electoral rout or on the party’s prospects for the upcoming local self-government elections in 2025 and Assembly elections in 2026.

Left not fully confident

Despite the party state secretary’s assertion that they will recover in the local elections, politburo member MA Baby and Central Committee member TM Thomas Isaac appeared less confident. On separate occasions, both have remarked that it will be challenging to regain momentum, requiring significant effort from both the party and the government.

“I don’t mean to imply that the Left’s vote share will automatically increase in the local government elections next year and in the Assembly elections. In the Lok Sabha election, a segment of the poor clearly became disillusioned with the Left’s performance and voted against it,” said Dr Isaac in a series of social media posts analysing the Left debacle in Kerala.

Left’s internal assessment

“In Kerala, the Left faces a significant challenge: while its traditional base has been the rural poor, structural changes in the economy over time have led to a reduction in their numbers. The Left’s challenge is not only to maintain its existing base but also to appeal to a segment of the middle class with differing expectations,” Isaac added.

The two-day state committee meeting of the party, which established guidelines for the rectification process, concentrated on the welfare measures to be implemented by the government and emphasized the need for the party to reconnect with the working class by returning to fundamental principles.

Why Left lost

The decline in the party’s core vote base was a major concern during the meeting. The party identified the role of the BDJS, an NDA ally with ties to the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam, a reformist organization within the Ezhava community, as a significant factor.

“The BJP’s policy of fostering caste divisions must be acknowledged and addressed appropriately. The SNDP, established and inspired by Sree Narayana Guru, a key figure in Kerala’s renaissance movement, is now being targeted by the BJP, which seeks to communalise the organisation through the BDJS. It is hoped that the SNDP will resist these attempts and prevent the saffronisation of Sree Narayana Guru’s legacy,” said party state secretary MV Govindan.

Upcoming political challenge

The party now faces an immediate challenge, with the upcoming local self-government (LSG) byelections, prompted by various factors, including deaths, resignations, and disqualifications of sitting members.

On July 30, Kerala will witness by-polls in 49 local self-government (LSG) wards, spanning 13 districts, with the exception being Wayanad. In the post Lok Sabha election contest, this pan-Kerala electoral event holds significant political importance.

LDF’s swinging fortunes

Currently, most LSGs in the state are under the control of the Left Democratic Front (LDF), but this election could be a turning point and a litmus test of the Communist Party of India (Marxist)’s rectification drive in the run up to the 2025 LSG elections.

The ruling LDF was on a decline curve in the LSG by-polls held after 2021, until February 2024. However, in the last by-elections to the local self-governments, just before the Lok Sabha battle, the LDF managed to make gains despite the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiments.

Out of the 23 local wards where elections took place, the LDF captured six seats from the Congress and BJP.

Left has to score

A strong performance by the LDF could boost their confidence, while a poor showing might further weaken their standing. Both the Congress and the BJP are also hopeful, looking to capitalize on the current political flux in Kerala.

The wards going to polls are distributed as follows: Kasargod (3), Kannur (3), Kozhikode (4), Malappuram (4), Palakkad (5), Thrissur (3), Ernakulam (3), Idukki (4), Kottayam (3), Alappuzha (3), Pathanamthitta (2), Kollam (4) and Thiruvananthapuram (8).

By-elections are set to take place in a division of the Thiruvananthapuram District Panchayat, four block panchayat wards, six municipality wards and 38 village panchayat wards.

The LSG battle

The stakes are high, with 24 of these seats currently held by the LDF, 19 by the UDF and four by the BJP. Apart from these mainstream parties, the SDPI and Welfare Party of India hold one seat each.

The outcomes of these by-elections will impact the governance of 11 local self-government institutions, including Peringammala in Thiruvananthapuram district, Chittar in Pathanamthitta, Thodiyoor, Sooranad South and Puyappally in Kollam, Mannar in Alappuzha, Thodupuzha municipality and Arakkulam panchayat in Idukki, Pavaratty in Thrissur and Thachampara and Mankara in Palakkad district.

Impact of local politics

Typically, local self-government election results have a limited impact from larger national political dynamics. These elections are primarily cantered around local issues and neighbourhood politics. However, in Kerala, state politics frequently comes under scrutiny and discussion, often influencing the outcomes of these local elections.

Development and welfare measures are key factors that frequently enable the LDF to secure a majority in the state’s local self-government elections. With the exception of the 2010 defeat, the LDF has consistently maintained an advantage in these local elections.

Left’s corrective steps

Simultaneous with the reporting of the rectification drive to the lower-level party committees, the CPI(M) has already taken action by instructing the government to focus on core issues of the working class population. The distribution of welfare pensions began on July 24, with one instalment being disbursed.

The finance department has allocated Rs 900 crore for this purpose. Chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan stated in the Assembly that despite the central government’s neglect, the state government remains steadfast in its commitment to welfare activities and has announced a timeline for the distribution process.

Hoping for the best

The decision to reduce the increased building permit tax is also part of their rectification drive. There was widespread resentment about the hike in the permit fee, which the party believes impacted the elections. “Although the current building permit fee in the state is the lowest in the country, the government has decided to reduce it by more than half due to public demand,” clarified LSG Minister MB Rajesh.

“In a way, the local self-government by-elections will serve as a test of our position. We can be confident that the vote loss in the Lok Sabha elections was primarily due to political reasons favouring the Congress and minority consolidation. This election also offers a chance to determine if there has been any permanent erosion of our base in favour of the BJP. We should view this as an opportunity to gauge the situation, and fortunately, we will have an entire year to address these issues before the 2025 local self-government elections,” a party state committee member told The Federal.