Why Padmaja’s exit is a shocker for Congress and boost for LDF govt in Kerala

Hailed as ‘the leader’, K Karunakaran, the late Congress stalwart and former chief minister of Kerala, along with his family, has never failed to captivate the media’s attention.

Whether it was during the notorious execution of Indira Gandhi's national emergency, the division of the party to establish DIC and subsequently merging it with the NCP, returning to the parent party, or his enduring rivalry with his contemporary in the party, AK Antony, Karunakaran consistently made headlines, until his death in December 2010.

Karunakaran's offspring, K. Muraleedharan, the former president of KPCC and incumbent MP from Vadakara, and Padmaja Venugopal, have likewise encountered their fair share of controversies. Muraleedharan, who faced defeat in an assembly election while holding a ministerial position following which he had to step down, emerged as a vocal opponent of the Congress leadership when he quit the party in 2005. His fierce criticisms aimed at Sonia Gandhi and the party's top brass, notably Ahmed Patel, dominated the news cycle on a daily basis during that timeframe.

Surprise move

Now, with a surprise move to the BJP, Padmaja Venugopal, a member of the Congress’ Political Affairs Committee (PAC) and former KPCC vice-president, has embarrassed her elder brother, prompting him to announce the severance of all ties with her. Padmaja's decision to join the BJP, receiving the party’s membership from Prakash Javadekar at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi, has dealt a serious blow to the Congress and the UDF in Kerala.

The rumours of Padmaja switching over to the BJP camp had been circulating for quite some time, but no definite clues had emerged until yesterday, when a Malayalam news channel broke the news, only to be denied by Padmaja through her Facebook page.

“It was a joke shared by me to a reporter but I did not expect it to be such a news,” wrote Padmaja in response to the newsbreak that she was all set to join BJP. However, within a span of three hours, she took down the post, and more media outlets started airing the news of her imminent entry into the Hindu nationalist party.

Late into the night sources in the BJP confirmed that Padmaja has shook hands with BJP president JP Nadda and will be officially joining the party in the next 24 hours.

Severing ties

K Muraleedharan's reaction was typical of him; he promptly disassociated himself from his sister, asserting that their “father's spirit would not forgive her”.

“I am severing all the ties with her, and this is nothing but backstabbing,” said the brother about his sister. The party had given everything to her, said Muraleedharan taking a dig at her terming her ‘a working from home leader’.

Padmaja responded emotionally, stating that she had never betrayed her brother, even when he deserted the party. “It was the Congress leadership that pushed me to the BJP. I was never treated well in the party. I was given ticket thrice, and it was not the CPI(M) or the BJP that defeated me, but the Congress leaders themselves. Now, the need of the hour is a strong party with strong leadership, and you can see that in the BJP and Modiji,” she stated.

Congress red-faced

Padmaja’s unexpected move came as a shock for the Congress and the UDF, leaving them struggling to politically explain the situation. Consequently, Muraleedharan, who is expected to contest from Vadakara, a CPI(M) stronghold for the second consecutive time, promptly and vehemently denounced his sister.

Political commentators view the BJP's strategy, reportedly known only to the state president and Suresh Gopi, the candidate for Thrissur in Kerala, as a clever move aimed at gaining momentum in the Thrissur constituency, where they anticipate a potential surprise victory.

Padmaja might secure the neighbouring Chalakkudy constituency, but the primary focus for the BJP will be to leverage the votes she could potentially influence in Thrissur. In the 2021 assembly elections, Padmaja and Suresh Gopi had contested in the Thrissur segment, but both lost the election as CPI's P Balachandran clinched victory by a slim margin of less than 1,000 votes, leaving Gopi at the third spot.

Political damage

Given the current circumstances, the erosion of a few votes in the Thrissur constituency will be the least of worries for the Congress, as the impact of Padmaja’s departure will be more political than electoral.

Even though the party leadership is aware of the potential damage it can cause, it has decided not to engage with her or try to dissuade her from leaving the party. They are more concerned about the potential advantage the CPI(M) and the LDF may take from the situation. Some leaders accused her of changing her mind as a consequence of the potential threat of an ED raid on her husband's medical practice and other businesses.

“She had actively participated in the march led by Thrissur MP TN Prathapan against the ‘spread of hatred’ the other day, and the next day she was seen holding talks with the BJP leaders in Delhi. I've heard that her husband was questioned by the ED, and I think she's switching sides because of that. Fearless people wouldn't need to leave. It seems like the BJP is using central agencies to lure leaders away,” alleged Bindu Krishna, a Congress leader.

Jubilant BJP

The BJP, on the other hand, is understandably jubilant. Not only have they managed to sway some voters, but the image of the “leader’s daughter” embracing their party’s “nationalistic values” could provide them with further momentum.

“As the daughter of the legendary leader K Karunakaran, she holds significant political heritage. Our party, under Modi's leadership, welcomes individuals with open hearts. We don't subscribe to a 'use and throw' attitude. We anticipate more leaders will join our party in the future,” said K Surendran, state president of the BJP. “This individual, who raised allegations about the ED inquiry, has held discussions with us. I'm not disclosing the details,” he said.

BJP's candidate for the Alappuzha constituency, Sobha Surendran, went a step further by stating that they even anticipate Muraleedharan joining them in the future.

“I am tempted to give a fitting reply to Muraleedharan for his scathing attack on Padmaja and our party. However, I refrain from doing so because I am unsure whether I will be addressing him as Muraliji in the near future,” remarked the BJP candidate.

LDF upbeat

This is precisely what the LDF has been anticipating, and their leaders have been emphasising that any Congress leader is a potential candidate to embrace the Hindutva ideology, regardless of their stature in Congress politics. In fact, Padmaja’s decision to jump ship effectively became a shot in the arm for the LDF which was struggling to gain traction amid anti-incumbency and other issues against the government.

This situation has provided them with an ideal opportunity to intensify their criticism of the Congress regarding the “soft Hindutva” allegation. CPI(M) cyber campaigners have already introduced the term ‘CongRSS’ to describe the Opposition party in social media conversations, a trend that gained momentum during the previous assembly elections too.

“Several Congress leaders, including former CMs, working presidents, and others, have switched to the BJP, with many more still in line. Just last week, over 40 leaders made the move. PM Narendra Modi mentioned that they anticipate double figures from Kerala. It must not be from his party, but from the UDF, Antony’s son, now Karunakaran’s daughter and who knows who’s next,” said MV Govindan, CPI(M) state secretary.

With three former UDF leaders appearing on the BJP candidates’ list, the LDF is gearing up to refine its campaign strategy, to leverage the unfolding scenario, foreseeing a potential sway in minority votes towards their camp. Padmaja's defection to the BJP and the ensuing discourse have served as an unexpected gain for them, spurring their electoral prospects in unforeseen ways.