Kerala | Chelakkara bypoll: Congress threatens to storm Left's fortress

Going by statistics and the current political status quo of local self-governments, the Chelakkara constituency stands as one of the safest seats for the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala.

Despite a sweeping decline across the state, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the LDF managed to secure only the Alathur Lok Sabha constituency in 2024, largely thanks to the reputation and stature of former minister K Radhakrishnan.

The Congress and the UDF are fancying an outside chance this time, bolstered by Remya Haridas’ impressive performance against Radhakrishnan in the last Lok Sabha election. She significantly reduced the vote margin from 39,400 in the previous Assembly elections to just over 5,000.

Anvar’s DMK is in fray

Various factors may have contributed to this shift, including anti-incumbency sentiments and minority discontent. Nevertheless, this was enough for the United Democratic Front (UDF) to field Remya as its candidate, despite her defeat in the Lok Sabha battle.

The contest became even more interesting with the entry of a candidate backed by former LDF MLA PV Anvar’s new outfit, the DMK. Although Anvar has been at odds with the LDF and openly critical of the government, the candidate he chose to support is a Congress leader, AICC member NK Sudheer.

Feeling ignored by the Congress and the UDF, Sudheer chose to break ranks and seek Anvar’s backing.

Sudheer criticizes Remya

During his campaign, Sudheer spoke with The Federal, expressing strong dissatisfaction with the Congress for sidelining him. He also criticized Remya, accusing her of neglecting her duties as an MP from 2019 to 2024.

“Remya Haridas was too arrogant as an MP and did nothing for the poor people here; instead, she spent her tenure globetrotting to 47 countries. The Congress completely ignored me, despite my being a senior member and the one who lowered the LDF’s majority from nearly 200,000 to just 20,000 votes back in 2009. It’s not just about sidelining me — the party has been neglecting the people of this constituency.”

When The Federal met Sudheer near Pazhayannur in the Chelakkara constituency, he was campaigning among a group of women working under the MGNREGA scheme. Despite his promise to advocate for higher wages, most of them did not appear impressed.

Anvar’s candidate has tough time

“We didn’t know he was the candidate of that MLA who always comes on TV (Anvar); we thought he was the Congress candidate. Anyway, I don’t think he’s the right one to vote for. We have three other candidates, and we’re very familiar with Pradeepettan (Brother Pradeep) and we know Remya as well. There’s no question of voting for the new guy,” said Jisha Gopalan, a 38-year-old homemaker who occasionally participates in MNREGA work.

Anvar had initially planned to field candidates in both Palakkad and Chelakkara, while supporting Priyanka Gandhi in Wayanad. He even entered negotiations with the UDF, though these discussions eventually went sideways as the leader of opposition VD Satheesan was adamant on not cutting a deal with Anvar on the latter’s terms.

Anvar had been demanding that the UDF withdraw Remya in Chelakkara which was outrightly denied by the Congress leadership. Despite this, he ultimately withdrew his candidate from Palakkad.

Undercutting Congress base

The DMK’s public campaign is largely built around Anvar’s allegations against the home department and the police, directly targeting chief minister and CPI(M) stalwart Pinarayi Vijayan.

However, his candidate Sudheer is focusing on canvassing and drawing votes away from the UDF.

“Sudheer is like a brother to me, and I’ve always been close to him. But it’s up to him to decide on his candidacy. My party has asked me to contest, so I won’t comment further. His entry won’t affect my chances as I’m campaigning on promises of development in a constituency that has lacked progress for decades despite the MLA being a minister for so long,” says a confident Remya.

Remya, Pradeep are confident

“During my campaign, I’m even getting support from Left voters, and I’m confident that our strong performance in the last Lok Sabha election will lead to a significant victory this time,” she added.

CPI(M) candidate UR Pradeep, a former MLA of Chelakkara, served the constituency when Radhakrishnan was assigned party organizational duties from 2016 to 2021. A grounded and well-liked leader, Pradeep is deeply rooted in the community, making him the Left party’s strongest candidate for the constituency.

“We are confident of retaining the seat because our connection with the people remains strong. The Lok Sabha elections were challenging for us, but that reflected national politics. Now, with the LDF government’s development and welfare initiatives back on track, we have the edge in Chelakkara, and we’re poised for a big win,” Pradeep told The Federal.

Left cadres slog

Although the candidate expressed confidence, local party leaders are proceeding cautiously, adopting a “once bitten, twice shy” approach.

“The Lok Sabha election was a shock for us. Our lead dropped from over 39,000 votes to just 5,000, which is concerning, and the increase in BJP votes is equally alarming. This time, we are leaving no stone unturned to ensure victory,” said PS Vinayan, a district panchayat member from the Pazhayannur division.

“If local workers are this alert, it’s a good sign for the party. Lethargy had been creeping in as our recent vote projections kept falling short. The party needs them to feel the urgency and take corrective measures,” MB Rajesh, the state minister for local self-government, told The Federal.

BJP’s expanding influence

The steady rise in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s vote share within the constituency worries the Left. Since the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the BJP has consistently increased its share, reaching 28,974 votes in2024. This time, the BJP has fielded K Balakrishnan, banking heavily on the ripple effect of Suresh Gopi’s resounding victory in the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency.

However, there is a slight dull feeling among BJP workers that the campaigning for Balakrishnan is not up to the mark this time though they have Suresh Gopi as an MP in neighboring Thrissur.

Chelakkara, a reserved constituency for SC/ST, was once a Congress stronghold, but in 1982 CK Chakarapani won it for the CPI(M). The CPI(M) gained traction with the rise of Radhakrishnan as a youth leader in 1996, and he went on to win the seat in 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2021.

Shocker for CPI(M)

In 2026, UR Pradeep replaced Radhakrishnan as he took on the role of CPI(M) district secretary for Thrissur. Radhakrishnan was later recalled by the party in 2021 to serve in the cabinet, after a successful term as Assembly Speaker from 2006 to 2011.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, when the CPI(M) lost all seats except for Alappuzha, one of the most significant defeats was in Alathur, which includes the Chelakkara segment. Congress’ Remya defeated CPI(M)’s PK Biju by a stunning margin of 158,968 votes. Even in Chelakkara, Biju trailed, with Remya leading by 23,695 votes.

Top guns campaign in Chelakkara

This time, both the LDF and UDF have deployed state-level leaders across each panchayat in the constituency to maximize their campaign efforts. The CPI(M), in particular, has assigned MLAs from other districts to oversee panchayat operations, closely monitoring progress with their highly organised party machinery.

The Congress has also assigned state-level leaders to spearhead its campaign, making a strong effort to wrest Chelakkara.