Wayanad tragedy: Rising debate over IMD forecasts, ecological damage

According to the IMD's color-coded weather alerts, an orange alert means "Be prepared" and is issued in the case of extremely bad weather, which can significantly affect transport facilities, including rail, road, and air travel. The rainfall according to this alert was expected to be heavy to very heavy, with heavy rainfall defined as between 65.4mm and 115.5 mm per hour, and very heavy rainfall between 115.6mm and 204.4 mm per hour.

Inaccuracies in early warning

The forecast for the day the disaster struck, July 30, the IMD was a yellow alert, predicting only moderate to isolated heavy rain. However, the department quickly changed it to a red alert after the devastating disaster, which claimed hundreds of lives.

Interestingly, the IMD predicted an orange alert for July 29 and a yellow alert for July 30 while the region was experiencing heavy and unusual rainfall. Many independent weather observers had raised concerns about possible landslides, considering the historical and natural characteristics of the terrain.

Many of them including the weather blogger Pradeep John, who goes by the name Tamil Nadu weatherman on social media, had issued forecasts, predicting significant weather changes in Kerala due to the current depression that has reached Gujarat.

According to an analysis by D Mohankumar, a retired science professor and weather observer based in Thiruvananthapuram, the depression was to move into the sea by July 29.

“The depression's movement, along with its path extending from the southern Gujarat coast to the northern Kerala coast, is expected to create a strong monsoon surge. The main direction of this surge is from Kochi to Mangalapuram. Heavy rain will continue in northern Kerala tonight and tomorrow, with the hilly areas being particularly vulnerable. There is a high possibility of very heavy rain and strong winds in these regions, which will increase the risk of landslides and mudflows. Additionally, low-lying areas are likely to experience flooding due to the heavy rainfall,” Mohankumar wrote on his social media handles two days prior to the landslides.

Demand for more accurate forecasts

As Kerala reels under this disaster, there are growing demands for more specific, people-oriented forecasts from the IMD, rather than the routine issuance of color-coded alerts.

The accuracy of IMD's rainfall forecasts has been under scrutiny for many years. Besides the latest incident, the IMD came in for heavy criticism for a forecast failure in Tamil Nadu that led to the loss of around ten lives over two days in January 2024. The authorities tend to defend the department stating that forecasting the monsoon in India is more challenging than other weather systems due to its large-scale nature and the significant impact of local factors on the final rainfall outcomes.

However, the state disaster management authorities are often left powerless, even if they have more accurate readings and a better understanding of the weather that could lead to more effective forecasts. This is because the IMD is the authorized body responsible for issuing official forecasts, including alerts and warnings.

As per the standard operating protocol for weather forecasting and warning services issued by the ministry of earth sciences, “the National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC) at IMD headquarters, New Delhi issues All India Weather Bulletin for 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country as a whole on daily basis and the same is updated three times within twenty-four hours. This bulletin more or less serves as a guidance bulletin for the subordinate offices and based upon that bulletin, the forecasting centres of Regional Meteorological Centres (RMCs) and State Meteorological Centres (SMCs) issue forecast and warning in the district level.”

“NWFC also issues nowcast (forecasting with local detail, by any method, over a period from the present to six hours ahead, including a detailed description of the present weather) guidance bulletin for the severe weather elements like thunderstorm, heavy rainfall, fog etc., based on which the RWFCs and the SWFCs issue nowcast in every three hours or as and when required related to the concerned severe weather phenomena.”

The environment angle

The massive landslides in Mundakkai and Chooralmala have sparked a renewed debate about their underlying causes. Environmentalists and critics of conventional development quickly pointed to construction-based development as a primary factor, citing environmentalist Madhav Gadgil. Gadgil's 2013 warning to Kerala about potential natural disasters if the Western Ghats were not conserved has resurfaced and gone viral on messaging apps and social media.

Environmentalists argue that the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel, led by Madhav Gadgil, had specifically warned against anti-environmental activities in Meppadi — where a major landslide recently destroyed an entire village — in its report submitted to the Centre in August 2011. They point out that Meppadi was identified as one of the 18 Ecologically Sensitive Localities (ESL) in Kerala by the panel.

Meanwhile, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said, “The epicentre of the landslide is indeed an eco-sensitive area, but it is not a human settlement. However, Mundakkai, the most affected village, is situated in a region highly prone to disasters. The soil, gravel, and rocks that flowed from this area have reached Chooralmala town, which is not typically prone to landslides and is located six kilometres away from the epicentre. This region is a flat riverbank that has been inhabited for years.”

And, this is what Hareesh Vasudevan, a noted environmentalist and Kerala high court lawyer said: “When three months' worth of rain falls in one night in a single location, particularly in a landslide-prone area, such a disaster will occur and can happen again tomorrow. There is no single solution for disaster mitigation. There are scientific methods to reduce the impact, and there is still time to discuss them. For now, let us refrain from speculating about the causes of the disaster. It doesn't matter if it’s Gadgil's or anyone else.”

Further, Hareesh added, “This is not the time to express personal opinions or quote past research on the causes of disasters. Since 2013, I have successfully conducted several pro-environment court cases. Even though discussing that now can gain me a lot of attention, the respectful thing to do at this moment is to remain silent. This is not the kind of disaster we are familiar with.”

Landslide-prone area

According to geological experts, approximately 21 per cent of Wayanad, (or 449 square kilometres), is classified as a critical area with medium hazard, as indicated by the landslide hazard zonation map.

“Meppadi, in particular, is a landslide-prone area which had experienced similar calamity in 1984, as a landslide claimed 14 lives. It occurred again in 1992 and 2019. However, during the 2020 landslide, early warning and dissemination systems enabled evacuation,” said Dr S Sreekumar, environmentalist and geo- scientist.

According to Dr Sreekumar, Wayanad experienced heavy rains, the landslide happened in the higher reaches where heavy vegetation, as seen from satellite images, exists. Mud, rocks, and debris cascaded down onto the houses, which needs to be corroborated with proper fieldwork. The slope proved to be critical. Since the landslide occurred in the wee hours, proper warning and dissemination systems did not work effectively”, he pointed out.

As debates heat up over the issue, environmentalists sometimes overlook the fact that the recent landslides in Kerala, which have caused significant impact and loss, were primarily due to heavy rainfall. On the other hand, pro-development, anthropocentric commentators often ignore the potential human causes behind natural disasters.

This ongoing conflict between these two forces continue to play out after each natural disaster that wreaks havoc on human habitats.