It's Destination Thrissur as BJP seeks to make a mark in Kerala

On January 3, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will commence its campaign for the 2024 general elections when Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Thrissur in Kerala to inaugurate a women’s convention organised by the Mahila Morcha. While Thiruvananthapuram is where the BJP has consistently secured the second spot in the last two general elections, this time its attention has shifted slightly to Thrissur for reasons ranging from its outreach among the Christian community to the presence of actor-turned-politician and former Rajya Sabha member Suresh Gopi as its candidate.

The BJP-led NDA has had a decent performance in the last Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in this region. Suresh Gopi has commenced an unofficial campaign, and the BJP’s primary focus will likely be on this constituency in Kerala. The prime minister’s scheduled programme, including a road show, has been strategically organised, allowing the BJP to kickstart its election campaign in a grand manner.

2019 scorecard

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, there were five constituencies in Kerala where the NDA secured more than two lakh votes, including Thiruvananthapuram, where their candidate Kummanam Rajasekharan finished second behind Shashi Tharoor of the Congress who won by almost one lakh votes.

In 2014, BJP’s veteran O Rajagopal came agonizingly close to Tharoor, thanks to a weak candidate put up by the Communist Party of India (CPI), but could not open the account for the saffron party in Kerala. The only time the NDA had representation in parliament was in 2004 when PC Thomas of his erstwhile IFDP (Indian Federal Democratic Party), a breakaway faction of the regional Kerala Congress (M), won. But the Supreme Court disqualified him in 2006 on the ground that he used his religious background to woo voters.

The electoral landscape in Thrissur appears to exhibit nuanced variations depending on the nature of the election — Assembly or Lok Sabha.

UDF bastion

Traditionally a stronghold of the Congress-led UDF (United Democratic Front), Thrissur has shifted its allegiance to the LDF (Left Democratic Front) in the last two Assembly elections, big time. The Left parties hold all the constituencies except one in the district. However, the dynamics differ in Lok Sabha elections, where the Congress has consistently held an edge in this constituency, particularly benefiting from the significant Christian vote share. In 2019, UDF candidate TN Prathapan secured a resounding victory in Thrissur. He got 415,089 votes. Rajaji Mathews Thomas from the CPI received 321,456 votes. Suresh Gopi of BJP obtained 293,822 votes, a significant vote share of 28.2 per cent.

This was notable, especially when compared to 2014 when the BJP’s KP Sreeshan garnered 102,681 votes in the same constituency.

Suresh Gopi

In Assembly elections of 2016, BJP candidates secured 235,556 votes across the seven segments falling within the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency. In 2021, this fell to 183,256. But Suresh Gopi, who contested from the Thrissur Assembly segment, achieved a personal milestone by securing 40,457 votes, an all-time high for BJP votes in this constituency.

Despite finishing third behind the LDF and UDF candidates, his increased vote count suggests a growing support base for the BJP in the region. With the BJP actively courting Christian votes and leveraging Suresh Gopi’s widespread media presence, the party aims to significantly increase its vote share, potentially winning the constituency. However, the Church’s support is not guaranteed, especially after the Manipur violence. Top bishops have been invited to the prime minister’s Christmas party.

Thiruvananthapuram

The UDF relies heavily on its MP Prathapan's popularity to maintain its stronghold in Thrissur. Meanwhile, the LDF is considering fielding former agriculture minister and CPI leader V S Sunilkumar, who is popular in Thrissur.

The election in Thrissur will be a closely contested affair, with each party strategically positioning its candidates to appeal to the diverse voter base.

Thiruvananthapuram is a constituency where the BJP has gradually expanded its vote base since the 1980s. In 2014, Rajagopal got 282,336 votes, and the victorious Tharoor got 297,806, leaving the LDF’s Dr Bennette Abraham in third place with 248,941 votes.

Taking on Tharoor

Rajagopal led in four of the seven Assembly segments but the three minority-dominated segments prevented a victory. Despite his strong performance, the demographics of certain segments played a crucial role in the final outcome. Rajagopal went on to win the Nemom Assembly constituency in 2016 to become the first BJP MLA of the state. But in 2021 the CPI(M) wrested it back with a resounding victory by present education minister V Sivankutty.

In 2019, the BJP’s Kummanom Rajasekharan secured a record 316,142 votes but fell way short of Tharoor’s 416,131 at the expense of the LDF’s former state minister C Divakaran of CPI who got 258,556 votes.

The BJP is actively seeking a candidate who can effectively challenge Tharoor. The names of Union ministers Nirmala Sitharaman, S Jaishankar, and Rajeev Chandrasekhar have surfaced in the media as potential candidates.

Modi a candidate?

There is also speculation about the possibility of Modi contesting from Thiruvananthapuram, following a strategy similar to what Rahul Gandhi did in 2019.

However, some within the BJP are cautious about this move, fearing that it could lead to minority consolidation against the BJP. There are concerns that such a high-profile candidacy by the prime minister might prompt the Left parties to withdraw their candidate, potentially resulting in a defeat for Modi.

Building on the momentum from 2019, the BJP is strategically focusing on Pathanamthitta and Attingal as well. In Pathanamthitta, K Surendran, the state president, got 295,627 votes while Sobha Surendran garnered 248,081 votes in Attingal. The BJP attributes these gains to the Sabarimala issue, which led to religious polarization, an uncommon occurrence in Kerala’s political landscape.

Other constituencies

Additionally, the BJP is targeting Palakkad and Kasargode, two constituencies bordering Tamil Nadu and Karnataka respectively. Traditionally, it has had better prospects in these regions. The strategic focus on these constituencies reflects the party’s intention to capitalize on local sentiments and historical voting patterns in these areas. The Sabarimala issue seems to have played a significant role in shaping the BJP’s electoral strategy in these regions.

Now, with Modi kicking off the campaign in Thrissur with another temple card in hand, the BJP is eying to cash on the Christian votes as an add-on. But according to many political observers, the political atmosphere and climate in the state is yet to be conducive for the saffron party. There are many challenges for the BJP to make significant inroads in Kerala. Unlike in the other parts of India, the BJP may need to navigate carefully to gain acceptance among Kerala’s diverse electorate.