Why Naidu axed two-child rule for candidates in Andhra local body polls

On August 7, the Andhra Pradesh Cabinet chaired by Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu adopted a resolution to do away with the two-child norm imposed on aspirants who want to contest elections to local bodies. Soon, three acts — the Andhra Pradesh Municipal Corporation Act 1955, the AP Municipalities Act 1965, and the AP Panchayat Raj Act 1994 — will be amended to remove the relevant provisions.

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Information and Public Relations Minister K Parthasarathi told the media that the decision was driven by the demographic transformation the state has gone through in recent times.

“Andhra Pradesh’s fertility trends are on the decline. The Cabinet felt the need to have a bigger population and families with more children. Otherwise, the state will face a shortage of working-age people contributing to the economic development by 2047,” he said.

Falling fertility rate

The two-child restriction came into force in 1994 in response to recommendations of the National Development Council (NDC). Alarmed by the 2.2 per cent decadal growth of population, as revealed by the 1991 census, the NDC drew up an action plan to lower the fertility rate in 10 to 15 years.

At that time, it was thought that if an elected representative accepted and advocated small family norms, it would have a great impact on others and they are more likely to follow the small family model. So, the state amended the local bodies acts to prospectively bar those who have more than two children from contesting panchayat and municipal elections.

Why Naidu is worried

Chief Minister Naidu looks more worried about the decline in the population growth than any chief minister in the country. Especially so after he planned Amaravati capital as a mega city. The masterplan of the future capital of Andhra Pradesh, prepared by consultants from Singapore, made a projection of more than 3.5 million population by 2050. It was supposed to have 0.9 million families and 1.5 million jobs. The present population of Amaravati is 0.27 million.

After a visit to Japan in 2015, Naidu’s concern became more pronounced. He started talking in every meeting about the Japanese government’s efforts to cajole their young couples, who were disinterested in having children, to bear at least one child. In 2015, he warned that a demographic crisis was looming large over Andhra Pradesh and urged the people to have more children.

Critics slam Naidu

The exhortation drew immediate rap from intellectuals such as former IAS officer Jayaprakash Narayan who said the statement was irresponsible. Unfazed, Naidu intensified his campaign. At a meeting in Tirupati in 2016, reminding how Japan was hit by a negative population growth, Naidu expressed dismay that youths were less interested in marriage.

“If you remain unmarried and have no children, the country will have to depend on robots, which are no replacement for humans,” he said. Later, he complained that even India’s rich were not interested in having more than one child.

Naidu's immediate concern stems from the possible socio-political impact of a population decline on the future mega city called Amaravati. In Naidu's vision, population decline means fewer people, weak spending, a shortage of working-age people, less business, and shrinking economic activities — which go against Naidu's image of a vibrant Amaravati teeming with more than 4 million people by 2050.

Population slide in Andhra

The fertility rate and the crude birth rate dropped several notches in Andhra Pradesh between 2008-10 and 2018-20. The general fertility rate (GFR), the number of live births per 1,000 women, decreased to 52.9 in 2018-20 from 63.8 between 2008-10 (17 per cent).

According to the Sample Registration Statistical Report 2020, the crude birth rate (annual number of births per 1,000 population) declined to 16.2 from 18.2 between 2008-10 and 2018-20. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) also witnessed a steady decline, from 1.7 in 2015-16 to 1.6 in 2017-2018 to 1.5 in 2019-20.

According to Prof T Chandrasekharayya of the Department of Population Studies, Sri Venkateswara University, Tirupati, the decline was felt acutely in urban parts of Andhra Pradesh, which means women are now giving birth to fewer children than a few decades ago.

Working-age population falls

For the overall working-age population (15-59 age), the rate of growth shows a declining trend from its peak in 1981, said Dr Motkuri Venkataramana of the Centre for Economics and Social Studies, Hyderabad. According to Venkataramana, in the overall working-age population (15-59 age) the rate of growth shows a declining trend from its peak in 1981.

Although Naidu’s decision to scrap the two-child norm was welcomed by a section of people, the implied push for having more children was not.

Prof Vajrala Anjireddy of Nagarjuna University, Guntur, said barring people from contesting elections on the basis of the number of children they have is wrong. “As per the Constitution, every citizen has the right to contest the elections. So, the Cabinet decision is welcome,” said Reddy, who teaches political science.

Against curbs on contestants

Former IAS officer and activist Dr EAS Sarma also supported the move. “In a democracy, there should be no restrictions whatsoever on contesting the elections, as such restrictions introduce an inherent bias in favour of some and against others.”

However, Kasali Apparao, chairman of the Andhra Pradesh Child Rights Commission, opposed Naidu’s indirect call to have more children. “Parents, irrespective of their economic status, are opposed to having more than two children, as they are aware that providing education and health care have become expensive,” he said.

Nimmaraju Rammohan Rao, executive director of HELP, an NGO, said having more children is advantageous for only a section of the people. “The government should first address the issue of falling sex ratio. Parents should be encouraged to have female children.”

Naidu’s concern: Amaravati

Dr Chigurupati Ramachandraiah, an expert in developmental studies, said Naidu’s population concern is triggered more by the Amaravati capital brand image. Against the backdrop of declining demographic trends, developing a mega city on the lines of Hyderabad is difficult, he said.

“Amaravati capital city area now has a population of 0.27 million. The current population of the capital region is about 5.81 million. The consultants have estimated Amaravati’s population to reach about 4 million and that of the capital region to reach 10.1 million in the next 20 years or so. Expecting such an influx is unrealistic,” said Ramachandraiah, who retired as professor from CESS, Hyderabad.

Since the demographic trends are expected to go against Naidu’s grandiose capital plans, he might be urging the people to have more children in order to prevent Brand Amaravati from collapsing, he added.