UP: Yogi faces bypoll challenge after BJP’s debacle in Lok Sabha polls

Days after the BJP suffered a major electoral setback in Uttar Pradesh during the Lok Sabha elections, the stage is set for another political face-off between the BJP-led NDA and INDIA bloc of Opposition parties.

With the blame game between BJP’s central leadership and UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath government continuing over the Lok Sabha poll results, the upcoming bypolls in 10 Assembly segments will be another direct contest between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party (SP).

Although the outcome of the bypolls won’t affect the stability of the Yogi regime, it will certainly reflect the public mood on the functioning of the state government. It will also be the first test for the chief minister and the state leadership after BJP only managed to win 33 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh. The defeat in Uttar Pradesh was critical for the BJP as the party could not get a majority on its own in the general elections for the first time in a decade.

Campaign kicks off

“The BJP leadership is known for its poll preparedness and planning. We have already kicked off our campaign for these bypolls. Our leaders have started frequenting these 10 constituencies. We will make every effort to win these elections, though the result will not impact the functioning of the state government,” UP BJP spokesperson Rakesh Tripathi told The Federal.

Of the 10 seats going to bypolls, five were won by the Samajwadi Party (SP) in 2022 state polls while three were won by BJP and two by the NDA partners. However, NDA and INDIA bloc led in equal number of these 10 constituencies during the Lok Sabha polls.

The bypolls are also significant because they will indicate if the shift in momentum in favour of INDIA alliance continues in UP or the BJP leadership has managed to arrest the party’s decline in the key state.

Passing the buck

The recent below-par electoral performance of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh has triggered a tussle between the central leadership and the state BJP under Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

While the central BJP leadership believes that the state government’s performance and poll preparedness were lacking, causing loss to the party, the BJP’s state leadership in Uttar Pradesh wants the central leadership to take responsibility for the loss of seats since it was the Lok Sabha election and not the assembly polls.

Senior BJP leaders believe that the bypoll in 10 assembly constituencies will reveal if the winds are still blowing in favour of INDIA bloc or if the BJP has managed to regain ground after drubbing in the general elections. They also feel that the bypoll result will be a direct hint to the people’s take on the performance of the state government led by Yogi Adityanath.

The continuing tug-of-war between Yogi and the BJP’s central leadership, which believes that anti-incumbency against the state government led to the party’s loss in UP, will only strengthen the latter’s case.

Litmus test for Yogi

“The BJP is confident that whenever the dates for the assembly bypolls are announced, the party will win all the seats. However, the real challenge is that if the BJP fails to retain its seats it will further boost the alliance between SP and Congress. The BJP will lose the perception battle against the INDIA alliance members and the Opposition will build a narrative that the state government’s position has weakened,” a Lucknow-based senior BJP leader told The Federal.

Political analysts believe that a victory in the bypolls will be projected as the triumph for Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath while claiming that the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections was an aberration.

“If the BJP is able to get an upper hand in the bypolls then the state unit of BJP will try to prove that this is the victory of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath whereas the the party’s performance in the Lok Sabha polls shall be attributed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. If INDIA alliance manages to do well then it will send a message across the state that the people want change. These bypolls will not change the power structure in the state but they will certainly help create a perception for both political sides,” Sudhir Panwar, a professor at Lucknow University and a member of Samajwadi Party, told The Federal.