Uttar Pradesh: Ayodhya at epicentre of Yogi’s by-poll battle

For in this by-poll, the Uttar Pradesh chief minister has to go all out to reverse the perception that the BJP’s fortunes are dwindling in the state. An impression that was created after the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won only 37 out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 national polls.

Nine of the ten vacant assembly seats are going to polls this time. Elections for the Milkipur reserved seat in Faizabad constituency in Ayodhya has not been announced for now because of a pending election petition in the Allahabad High Court.

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BJP and Samajwadi Party to lock horns

Senior BJP leaders in UP believe that out of the nine seats going to polls, the Samajwadi party had won in four of the seats in the 2022 assembly elections, while the BJP had taken three seats and two seats went to the Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Nishad Party, both of which are alliance partners of the BJP.

However, after BJP’s dismal performance in the state in the Lok Sabha polls, the party leadership has decided that it will not take any chances by relying on NDA partners, and so out of the total ten seats, the saffron party has decided to contest nine seats on its own and give only one seat to RLD.

This by-poll looks poised to be a direct battle between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party.

A senior BJP leader told The Federal, “The real challenge for the BJP is that out of the ten assembly seats, five are sitting seats of the Samajwadi Party and in one seat, the BJP candidate won by only 2,732 votes. This election will be a direct contest between the BJP and Samajwadi Party.”

Further, he said, “The elections are important because they will set the tone for the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections in 2027. If the BJP does not do well, then it will allow the perception to build that the party’s dismal run, which started in the Lok Sabha polls, is continuing.”

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High-stakes for Yogi Adityanath

Four months after the BJP managed to win 37 out of the 80 seats in UP, the outcome of the upcoming by-polls will be crucial for Yogi Adityanath. So, this by-poll is turning out to be a high-stakes battle for the saffron-clad BJP leader. He will have to prove to the BJP leadership and the people of the state that he is equipped to take on the collective strength of the Samajwadi Party-led India alliance.

Soon after the Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP’s performance was below par, there was an internal debate within the ruling party if the outcome of the national elections in UP was due to the state leadership or lack of coordination at the national level.

Rakesh Tripathi, the BJP spokesperson in UP, told The Federal, “The BJP takes all elections very seriously, be it by-polls, assembly polls, or Lok Sabha or panchayat elections. The target given to us is to strive to get 51 per cent votes in all constituencies. Chief minister Yogi Adityanath has himself visited all the by-polls constituencies multiple times in the past few days to ensure that the BJP will win majority of the seats.”

Senior BJP leaders believe that the by-polls are a precursor to the assembly elections because it is a direct contest between the BJP and Samajwadi Party.

“The state is clearly divided between the BJP and Samajwadi Party. The main Opposition to the BJP is coming from the Samajwadi Party and we are also aware that the assembly elections will basically be a contest between these two parties only. However, we cannot rule out the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is also contesting the by-polls. Normally, the BSP leadership does not contest any by-polls. The role of BSP could prove to be crucial for the outcome of these nine by-polls,” Tripathi added.

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Battle for Ayodhya

Even though the fate of the nine by-polls will be decided soon, the most important political battle will be fought between the BJP and Samajwadi Party in the Milkipur assembly constituency within the Faizabad Lok Sabha constituency.

After the consecration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya in February this year, the BJP leadership hoped that the culmination of the Ram Janambhoomi movement would help the party increase its social and political foothold in UP.

However, the Lok Sabha battle of Faizabad constituency, which comes under Ayodhya district, was won by Samajwadi Party leader, Awadhesh Prasad. The Samajwadi Party leader was earlier an MLA from the Milkipur seat, but after he became the Member of Parliament, the assembly constituency became vacant.

After the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP leadership faced a lot of criticism for losing the constituency to its arch-rival Samajwadi Party. The ruling party has now made it a prestige battle to win the Milkipur constituency and end SP's hold over the assembly constituency.

Political analysts believe the by-polls will be a fierce contest between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party, which will test the social coalitions of both the parties.

SK Dwivedi, former political science professor at Lucknow University, told The Federal that it is true that out of the ten seats going for by-polls in UP, five are sitting seats of the Samajwadi Party.

However, just because it is the sitting seat, it does not guarantee that the same party will win again, he added.

“The by-polls will be a tough contest between the BJP and SP. The BJP will deploy its usual strategy of reaching out to the poor and work towards the consolidation of people on the lines of Hindutva, while the SP leadership will try to bring together the social coalition of backward classes, Dalits and Muslims,” said Dwivedi.