Why Rajya Sabha election may decide fate of BJP govt in Haryana

With hardly four months left for the upcoming Assembly elections in Haryana, the ruling BJP is looking for ways to put its house in order.

After witnessing a decline in its electoral fortunes in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections, the BJP leadership has received a piece of advice from the RSS – to return to an understanding with the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP).

This may not only ensure that more parties join the NDA but also help the BJP retain Haryana for the third consecutive term.

BJP govt in minority

The first challenge before the BJP is to put its house in order ahead of the Rajya Sabha elections in Haryana, where one seat is going to polls. With 41 MLAs in the 90-member Assembly, the BJP is the single largest party. However, if the Congress is able to forge an alliance with the JJP then the two parties will certainly give the BJP a tough fight in the Rajya Sabha polls.

To put the numbers in the Haryana Assembly in perspective, the BJP has 41 seats, the Congress has 29, and the JJP 10. There are also seven independent MLAs.

As of now, the BJP government does not enjoy a majority in the Assembly, and will require the support of some independent MLAs to reach the halfway mark.

Floor test replica

A potential loss in the Rajya Sabha elections could create trouble for the BJP, because it will act like a floor test for the Nayab Singh Saini government and prove that the party doesn’t have numbers on its side.

The lone Rajya Sabha seat fell vacant after Deepender Hooda of the Congress won the Lok Sabha elections from Rohtak constituency.

“We have not decided if we want to support the BJP. So far there has been no decision on which party to support in the Rajya Sabha elections. The final decision will be taken later in the week when the senior party leadership will hold deliberations. But so far there has been no decision on the issue,” Prateek Som, national spokesperson of the JJP, told The Federal.

Challenging times for Saini

Ever since Saini took over the reign of the Haryana government in March this year, the state government has been facing one crisis or the other.

The BJP high command decided to make Saini the Chief Minister this March after the JJP walked out of the BJP alliance. The two parties could not reach an agreement on the seat sharing arrangement for the Lok Sabha elections.

The BJP won all 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana in 2014 and 2019 general elections and the party was eyeing an hat-trick in the 2024 polls. However, with the BJP winning only 5 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana and the Congress managing to win the remaining seats, the party leadership in the state is reconsidering its former alliance partner JJP.

“The Assembly polls in Haryana are expected to take place in November this year and therefore we expect a lot of political developments in the coming days. Any talk of the new alliance will be first discussed in the legislative party meeting of the JJP and only then will a decision be taken on the issue,” added Som.

Edge for Opposition

The upcoming Rajya Sabha elections will be a litmus test for the BJP, which enjoys the support of 43 MLAs, including Independent legislator Nayan Pal Rawat and Gopal Kanda of the Haryana Lokhit Party. However, the Opposition has 44 MLAs on its side as the Congress has 29 and JJP has 10. There are four Independents, apart from Abhay Chautala of INLD.

Political analysts believe that the BJP leadership is facing a tough political battle in Haryana where it has to take extraordinary decisions to win over different communities before the Assembly polls.

“The electoral battle won’t be easy for the BJP in Haryana where it is facing ire of the farmers, Agniveers, and the dominant Jat community," Abhay Kumar Dubey, author and professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), told The Federal.

"The other problem for the BJP is that the non-Jat votes are also getting divided between different political parties. The BJP will have to resort to some social engineering before the state elections but it seems an uphill task,” he added.