Steering the BJP juggernaut in Haryana, Saini emerges as a rising star

The spectacular performance of the BJP in Haryana has given rise to a new leader in the ruling party, Nayab Singh Saini.

Saini has managed to overcome a 10-year anti-incumbency and lead his party to a historic victory in the state with its best-ever electoral performance.

Troubled by the sustained campaign of opposition parties that attempted to corner the BJP on issues such as protests by farmers and wrestlers, the ruling party took a gamble in March by appointing Saini as the new Chief Minister of Haryana. Saini, who belongs to the OBC community, replaced Manohar Lal Khattar for the top post.

Saini's role

“There is no doubt that Nayab Singh Saini has played a crucial role in the BJP's victory in the Haryana elections. I have often said that he did not get enough time during the Lok Sabha elections and state polls, but he has proven that he can lead the state. The decision regarding the next chief minister will be taken by the central leadership of the party, but I have no doubt that Nayab Singh Saini will become the Chief Minister of Haryana again, and the central leadership will support him,” Harjit Singh Grewal, a national executive member of the BJP from Haryana, told The Federal.

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The impact of the consolidation of OBC votes in favour of the BJP can be seen in the fact that the party received 39.89 percent of the votes in the assembly polls and is leading in 49 seats. In comparison, during the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP won only 40 seats with 36.5 percent of the votes.

The results of the assembly polls in Haryana, declared on Tuesday, mark the best-ever performance of the BJP since it came to power in Haryana on its own for the first time in the 2014 assembly polls.

Even in the 2014 elections, when the BJP won 47 seats independently, its vote percentage was only 33.2 percent.

Jat versus non-Jat votes

At the beginning of the election campaign in September, the BJP leadership faced challenges from farmers demanding a legal guarantee for the minimum support price (MSP). To complicate matters, some wrestlers from Haryana also protested, rallying the voters of the Jat community, who were already supportive of the farmers' protests.

“The protests by farmers were instigated by opposition parties. The verdict is a clear statement that not all farmers participated in the protests. The BJP continues to enjoy tremendous support from farmers because it has performed well in both urban and rural areas. There is no region in the state where the BJP has not won in Haryana,” said Grewal.

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The consolidation of Jat voters against the BJP is evident in the fact that out of the 49 seats where the party is leading, only a couple of BJP Jat leaders have won. Among the 49 seats the BJP has won in Haryana, most candidates — 47 — belong to the OBC community, Brahmins, Scheduled Castes, and Punjabi Baniyas.

Interestingly, among the 49 winners, at least ten belong to the Brahmin community, while eight are members of the Scheduled Castes (SC). The majority of the remaining 31 elected legislators are from the OBC community, with barely 6-7 from the Punjabi Baniya community.

Social engineering

The BJP's social engineering can also be observed in the fact that out of the 17 reserved constituencies for Scheduled Castes, the BJP has managed to win eight, while the Congress secured only nine seats.

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“The BJP has a rainbow caste coalition that worked in its favour. The party has won in areas where there is consolidation of Jat voters because it engages with all communities and does not rely solely on the support of one group,” a senior BJP leader involved in the election campaign told The Federal.

Political analysts believe the BJP successfully convinced Haryana voters that if the Congress party won, Bhupinder Singh Hooda would only serve the Jat community, leading to a consolidation of non-Jat voters toward the BJP.

“The BJP won because its strategy to consolidate non-Jat voters worked in its favor, and people were convinced that if Congress won, it would only work for one community. The BJP's gamble in appointing Nayab Singh Saini also played to its advantage,” said Ashutosh Kumar, a political science professor at Panjab University, to The Federal.

Kumar further noted that the BJP won in most urban areas of Haryana, giving it an edge over the Congress.