Jharkhand: Why JMM has taken the gamble to bring Hemant back as CM ahead of polls

Veteran Jharkhand Mukti Morcha leader Champai Soren resigned as Chief Minister, on Wednesday (June 3), paving the way for Hemant Soren’s return as the state’s top executive just six months before Jharkhand goes for Assembly polls.

A formal announcement on Hemant’s swearing-in ceremony is awaited. JMM sources told The Federal that the CM-designate is also likely to effect a minor reshuffle of the state cabinet while Champai is expected to be given a senior position within the JMM, possibly that of executive president, to signify that the veteran leader was not being short-changed.

No slot for Kalpana Soren?

Hemant’s wife and newly elected MLA from Gandey in Giridih district, Kalpana Soren, who emerged as an effective campaigner for the party during the Lok Sabha polls, is unlikely to join the cabinet. Sources said she would continue to tour the state and mobilise support for the ruling alliance of the JMM, Congress, RJD, and Left parties ahead of the Assembly polls.

Hemant had resigned as Jharkhand CM on January 31, moments before he was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate on allegations of money laundering linked with a land deal. Following a five-month incarceration at Ranchi’s Birsa Munda prison, Hemant walked out on bail on June 28 after the Jharkhand High Court held that the “overall conspectus” of the case against him “does not specifically or indirectly assign the petitioner to be involved in the acquisition and possession as well as concealment of 8.86 acre of land connected to the proceeds of crime... none of the register/revenue records bare imprint of the direct involvement of the petitioner in the acquisition and possession of the said land.”

Upon his release from jail, Hemant had asserted that the High Court’s bail order was “a message not only for the State but for the country that a conspiracy was hatched against me” and that he would “fighting for the cause of the people and the tribals”.

Another boost for INDIA Bloc

Through the Lok Sabha campaign and even during the early days of the inaugural session of the 18th Lok Sabha, which concluded on Wednesday, the JMM, the Congress and other INDIA Bloc parties had relentlessly slammed the BJP for acting against Hemant (and also still jailed Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal) out of political vendetta. With Hemant not only out of prison now but also expected to return as CM, the INDIA Bloc will intensify this line of attack further against the BJP while also accusing the saffron party of being “anti-tribal, anti-Dalit and anti-OBC,” a senior Jharkhand Congress leader told The Federal.

Sources in the state’s ruling alliance said the move to bring Hemant back into the driver’s seat was borne out of the assessment that though Champai, as CM, had managed to “bring down anti-incumbency” against the government, the coalition’s electoral popularity had largely remained confined to the tribal-dominated regions of Jharkhand.

Poll calculations in mind

The five seats that the JMM (Rajmahal, Dumka and Singhbhum) and the Congress (Khunti and Lohardaga) managed to win in the recent Lok Sabha polls were all reserved for the scheduled tribes. The INDIA Bloc drew a blank across all general category and SC-reserved constituencies – eight of which went to the BJP and one to its ally, the AJSU. Sources said mapping the Lok Sabha polls as per party-wise leads in Assembly segments had presented an even more worrying spectacle for the ruling alliance.

The Lok Sabha results showed that while the JMM and the Congress led in just 15 and 14 assembly segments, respectively, the BJP took a lead across 46 Assembly segments of the state. “If we go as per the Assembly constituency-wise leads in the Lok Sabha results, the BJP looks comfortably placed to win the state. We trailed behind the BJP in general category seats with huge margins. With just four-five months left before the state goes to polls, this is not the kind of situation we want to be in. Bringing Hemant back is a good strategy because unlike Champai Soren, whose popularity is limited to the tribals, Hemant has support of other caste groups too and because of his arrest, there is also a lot of public sympathy for him,” a JMM MP told The Federal.

Differing views as well

However, not all in the alliance seem to agree with this view. A minister in the state cabinet said, “It may have been better to let Champai stay on as CM till the election while Hemant and Kalpana along with other leaders of the alliance went on a statewide yatra to mobilise public support and reclaim lost ground... it is only a matter of a few months (till the Assembly elections) and such an arrangement would have dented any attack from the BJP about Champai Soren being insulted or our CM being hungry for power”.

Some in the alliance believe Hemant’s move to reclaim the top post now may also have been motivated by the apprehension that if the coalition returned to power in the state while Champai was still the CM, a change of guard post the results would have been seen as a bigger slight of the five-term Seraikella MLA, who is also a contemporary of JMM founder and Hemant’s father, Shibu Soren.

“It (removing Champai Soren as CM) is a difficult decision and a gamble but we had to take it now. No one denies that Champai Soren is one of the seniormost leaders of our party and, for the past five months, he ran the government against a lot of odds but then his political influence is limited to the tribal belt while Hemant has a state-wide appeal. Our assessment is that despite the poor Lok Sabha results, we are still set for a victory in the assembly elections. If we went into elections with Champai as our CM, could we have told the voters that we will replace him with Hemant once we win? If we won while he was still the CM and then changed him after the results, it would have been a clear insult,” a close aide of the CM-designate said.

All set to go populist

Sources said over the next few weeks, Hemant is likely to push through several populist decisions while he, Kalpana and Champai also embark on a yatra of the state.

The JMM, it is learnt, is also likely to ask other senior leaders of the INDIA Bloc, including Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and Lok Sabha’s Leader of Opposition, Rahul Gandhi, to join Hemant’s rallies. A recurring theme of these public outings is expected to be adivasi and Jharkhandi pride, with Hemant and the INDIA leaders going all out to attack the BJP for “framing a tribal CM in false cases” out of political vendetta.

With Hemant’s imminent return as CM, the JMM has also sounded the bugle for the Jharkhand Assembly election campaign.