US shooter’s Republican credentials likely to puncture Trump camp hopes

The question uppermost in the immediate aftermath of the attempted killing of former United States president Donald Trump was whether it would swing the November elections the Republicans’ way.

With a doddering and fumbling incumbent President Joe Biden unable to stand up to public scrutiny on his well-being, the Democrats were already on the back foot. Now that Trump had been shot at, it appeared the game had slipped out of Biden’s control.

Immediately following the shooting, it was not clear who had tried to assassinate Trump. Though not explicitly spelt out, the possible motives for taking out Trump were varied. It could have been related to Israel’s ongoing assault on Gaza, given that Trump is a far more committed supporter of the Jewish state than even Biden. His re-election could boost Israel’s assault.

Motive unclear

Or, had it anything to do with the prolonged Ukraine-Russia war? Trump, known for his antipathy to NATO, has previously stated he will bring an end to the conflict. Was the attempted killing to prevent him from doing any such thing?

Or, was it an Islamist as Trump’s anti-Muslim views are well known? He had proposed banning residents of several Arab-Muslim countries from entering the US during his first term. Or, maybe a Hispanic, as Trump is known for his trenchant views on stopping illegal migrants from entering the US through Mexico. His proposed wall on the US-Mexico border and separation of children from families as they entered the US illegally are all well documented.

Or, was it someone from the side of the Democrats who did not want to see Trump coming to power again, given his controversial reaction when he was losing to Biden in the 2020 elections? The attack on Capitol Hill, being a prime instance of an autocratic streak.

Shooter’s identity

Irrespective of who it was, the elections were perceived to have already been won by Trump. Until the identity of the shooter was established. Now that Thomas Mathew Crooks has been found to be a White American and a registered Republican voter in Pennsylvania, the anti-climax speaks louder than the ruckus that the attempted killing had triggered.

Why would a Republican voter target Trump, the party’s favoured candidate? It is a befuddling question as Republicans in recent weeks have mostly got together to back Trump for a second term. Or, is there a faultline within the GOP that has been relegated to the background in the clamour within the Republicans for the former president’s candidature?

Whatever the reason, it is now bound to be speculative as Crooks was shot dead. No one will definitively know unless the to-be assassin left a note or some communication to reveal his motives.

But Crooks, being a Republican voter, has punctured the vitriolic criticism that was being aimed at the Democrats and Biden. Trump’s possible running mate, Senator JD Vance, set the ball rolling minutes after the shooting, saying it was the outcome of hate and divisive politics. He referred to the Opposition calling Trump an authoritarian fascist, implying such descriptions could have riled some voters, who may have decided to get rid of him.

No external hand

For the Republicans who may have hoped to ride on the attempted assassination, Crooks’ antecedents as a fellow traveller is counterproductive as broad-based sympathy for him is bound to dilute among voters. Democrats may not feel the need to carry the can for the shooting and get morally weighed down by the incident.

In fact, now that it is clear there was no external hand or none from a rival politico-religious background, like an Islamist, attention is being focused on Crooks’ near-miss. The US, well known for spawning conspiracy theories, is now awash with questions regarding the absolutely close call experienced by Trump. Was the shooting undertaken to spark sympathy for the former president who appears more desperate than most challengers to somehow make it to the top job?

Trump, following his defeat to Biden, has been investigated, taken to various courts, indicted and criticised on a variety of charges most of which are still work in progress. If he wins the presidential elections, he has the power under the US Constitution to blunt most of the charges and may even emerge squeaky clean and untouchable by any legal process.

Conspiracy theories

The conspiracy theories, however, have one flaw. Trump was already riding high and there was near-panic in the Democratic camp on the ability of Biden to handle the election campaign. Unless Biden relents and makes way for an alternative candidate, in which case, the situation may change, there is anyway not much hope for a Biden victory. So why would anyone, especially a Republican voter, take the risk of attempting to shoot Trump just so that he gains more sympathy and support. The shooting, from this point of view, doesn’t make sense.

Many of the past US high-profile assassinations have almost always been by individuals acting on their own for reasons that have never been found out or revealed until this day. John F Kennedy’s for instance. Only speculations remain. Trump’s attempted killing too seems fated to be another such.

Whether the shooting will end up helping Trump or not, Saturday’s incident will dominate campaign hereon until, of course, some other major development takes over. One such possibility is the replacement of Biden as the Democrats’ running candidate. Until then, the Pennsylvania shooting is set to rule the hustings.