Sheikh Hasina in India, until recently an ally, could turn into diplomatic hot potato

India’s upended close friend and reliable ally, Sheikh Hasina, may well turn out to be a diplomatic hot potato if she formally applies for asylum in this country.

Having fled with student-led protesters hot on her heels, and the Bangladesh Army urging her to leave pronto, reports initially said the former Bangladesh prime minister would briefly halt in a north-eastern Indian state before moving on to London.

Now that the United Kingdom’s Keir Starmer government has refused asylum, it looks very possible that the former Bangladesh prime minister will have to stay in India for the foreseeable future.

Hasina’s ties with India

There is a possibility that a European nation might come forward to offer asylum, but that is still in the realm of speculation. The reason why this looks remote is because Hasina is in India, a peaceful democratic country which by all accounts, can guarantee her security. That being the case no other country will feel the need to act in haste to take in the ex-Bangladesh prime minister.

It shouldn’t be a difficult decision for the Narendra Modi government to allow her to stay as Hasina qualifies in every way to seek shelter in India given how close her dispensation was to New Delhi. Since Hasina came to power in 2009, India has in fact had a dream run in Bangladesh.

When all other countries in the South Asian neighbourhood were turning their nose up at New Delhi, causing great embarrassment, India could bank on Bangladesh to stand by it. Despite China being Dhaka’s biggest trading partner, Hasina still found ways to accommodate India.

The latest was the prestigious and strategically crucial $1 billion Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project, which she indicated would be signed with India even after China had completed the initial survey as a prelude to starting work on it.

Hasina was taking this decision risking Beijing’s anger. In fact, a few days ago, Hasina on a visit to Beijing cut short her trip and returned in a huff – an indication that all was not well with her relationship with China. The immediate ostensible reason was China agreeing to loan only $100 million instead of the promised $5 billion.

Challenge for Modi government

But now, all that is in the past. The situation has dramatically changed 180 degrees. Hasina is out of power, and her personal security is itself in question. Diplomatically, Hasina’s presence in India could turn out to be a challenge for the Modi dispensation.

She had, in the last few years, managed to anger the United States and more recently, China. The US was apparently piqued by China’s dominance in Hasina’s Bangladesh and took recourse to attacking the government for diluting democracy and human rights in the country.

One of the first things that the Joe Biden administration did was to revoke Hasina’s visas soon after she resigned as prime minister. The UK government in London came up with some procedural and technical reasons for not being able to accommodate Hasina. It was, as expected, acting in tandem with the Biden administration.

Diplomatic standoff likely

A diplomatic standoff is likely to arise in the near future once the new interim government takes over in Dhaka. With Nobel laureate and Hasina rival Muhammad Yunus ready to take over the reins of power, along with a group of ministers who would most likely be affiliated to the student protesters and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), it is but a matter of time before some criminal charges are levelled against Hasina.

The legal denouement will eventually call for her presence in Bangladesh. The new government could ask India to extradite her. There is already a functioning extradition treaty between the two countries since 2013. The Indian government will come under pressure to send her back.

With the United States hostile to Hasina and friendly to Yunus, the government in Dhaka headed by him may turn to Washington for intervention. It will require the Modi government to risk antagonising the US in order to protect Hasina.

India can’t afford to anger Dhaka

Hasina is only the second exiled foreign leader of national stature who has arrived in India for shelter and security. (Hasina had once lived in India between 1975 and 1981 when her father and Bangladesh icon, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and most others in her family were assassinated in Dhaka. Hasina had not yet entered politics at that time)

Earlier, in the 1950’s, the then Jawaharlal Nehru government, despite a close relationship with Mao Tse Tung’s China, offered Tibetan leader Dalai Lama and scores of his followers asylum in India. The Tibetan government-in-exile even now functions from Dharamsala in Himachal Pradesh.

The conditions in the 1950’s and now are vastly different. If India does not accede to Dhaka’s request for extraditing Hasina, it will increase friction between the two. This in turn will have an immediate impact on India’s trade with Bangladesh and security in the north-east Indian states as both share a long and porous border.

To make it worse, the government in Dhaka could leave out India and open up the country for more Chinese trade and investment. Pakistan, which had been held at bay under Hasina, will also have a much bigger presence in Bangladesh – all of which will result in a cocktail of political and security headaches for India.

India’s dilemma

The Indian government will have to necessarily stand with Hasina. If it buckles under pressure, that would hurt India’s reputation as a reliable ally and dilute its standing the world over. The Modi government can quietly pressure Hasina to negotiate an asylum deal with another country to douse the heat, but who else will accommodate India’s concerns? There seems to be none as of now.

The diplomatic fallout of sheltering Hasina is unpredictable. The Indian government already appears to have irritated the Biden administration by the Moscow visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi just when NATO was celebrating its 75th anniversary. Modi’s visit to Ukraine, seemingly to make amends for the Moscow trip, is on the cards though New Delhi is yet to officially announce it.

To India’s disadvantage, global rivals US and China have their own interests in Bangladesh that are at cross-purposes with Delhi’s. The US, though an ally, was hostile to Hasina and close to the BNP which has a track record of being anti-India. China was engaged in rivalry with India with a view to dominating Bangladesh.

Given this context, even without Hasina’s presence in Delhi, there is a good possibility of the new pro-BNP dispensation in Bangladesh cold-shouldering the Modi government. If the ousted Bangladesh prime minister were to stay on in India, it will only get worse for India. The incoming government in Dhaka will get a solid reason to turn against New Delhi.

For the Modi government, meanwhile, the Dhaka coup opens up a fresh can of troubles one way or the other. There’s no getting away from that.