Hamas, Israel peace welcome but underlying conflict can undermine deal

The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas is undoubtedly a relief for Gazans who have been subject to relentless airstrikes for the last at least 15 months. For nearly 100 of the 250 Israeli hostages still held by Hamas, the peace deal will finally spell freedom.

The latest count from Israeli strikes indicates that over 46,000 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed and almost the entire strip has been destroyed. The ceasefire is therefore a silver lining.

Without appearing to sound pessimistic, the ceasefire needs to be looked at realistically. It appears that the finer details of the deal are still being worked out. That apart, what does the ceasefire hope to achieve?

Truce and more

Israel will stop bombarding Gaza for some time until the Hamas releases all the hostages. Around 251 Israelis were taken hostage during the Hamas's shock and awe attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 that also saw the killing of over 1,200 Israelis including civilians and military personnel.

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Israel used the Hamas attack as the perfect excuse to militarily pulverise Gaza, destroy the strip and drive out or kill Palestinians living there -- indiscriminately. Israel's actions have pushed a section of world opinion to term the assault an act of "genocide". The International Court of Justice is seized of the matter.

Peace guarantee?

Now that an agreement has been hammered between Israel and Hamas overseen by the United States, is lasting peace guaranteed? Who will take care of Gaza's reconstruction? How is this going to impinge on the overarching Israeli-Palestinian conflict? These are questions that don't have easy answers.

For now, it appears that the real beneficiaries are the Israeli hostages who will be released in two phases over the next few weeks, if the deal holds.

Palestinians in Gaza, too, will experience some relief with Israeli soldiers being withdrawn from residential areas and stationed near the border between Gaza and Israel. Those Palestinians wounded and those needing medical treatment will be allowed to go over to Egypt. But beyond these immediate outcomes, all else is still up in the air.

The long conflict

Fundamentally, when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, that was part of the long conflict stretching back decades between the two sides. Since 1967, Israel has practically occupied the Palestinian territories of the Gaza strip and the West Bank. Similarly, East Jerusalem, which was to be with the state of Palestine, has also been under Israeli occupation from that time.

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The Israeli occupation over time gave rise to Palestinian groups that had been trying to push for freedom under the United Nations' two-nation plan. But over the decades, with complete United States backing, Israel had managed to tighten its hold on Gaza and the West Bank.

Israeli settlements

Israel used its occupation to gradually build settlements in the occupied territories to house Jewish populations in areas that were meant for a Palestinian state. These settlements under international law are illegal, but that did not prevent Israel from expanding them wherever possible.

These settlements, incidentally, are not like shoddy Indian government-built camps for internally displaced people like tribals when they need to be rehabilitated, say following the construction of a dam. The Israeli settlements are full-fledged townships with a comprehensive network of drains, infrastructure and all amenities that make them well-endowed townships. Dismantling them is not easy and they become quasi-permanent.

It is in this context that the Israeli destruction of Gaza must be viewed. When the October 7 attack happened, many commentators and government officials in Israel were quoted as saying that Gaza must be rid of Palestinians. Obviously, this would mean that, after a future reconstruction, there is a heavy likelihood that they will be inhabited by a Jewish population sent in by Israel. Until now, the Jewish state has never passed up an opportunity to settle its community in areas where Palestinians used to live.

Uncertain future

Yes, there is a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel but that does not mean the larger Israeli-Palestinian conflict has ended. That culmination is nowhere in sight.

So, the current development can only be seen as another phase of the overall conflict. After the hostages have been released and reconstruction begins, whenever it does, further problems can be expected on the resettling of displaced Gazans in their original homes. And any misstep by either of the parties can simply blow up the current peace agreement.

It would be best to keep one's fingers crossed on the future course of development following the peace deal.