India, US appear to discount possible collapse of Myanmar military rule

China has begun military exercises along its border with Myanmar, with drills to test its readiness and capability to handle a possible collapse of the Myanmar military, which is under intense pressure from multiple insurgent groups and a tottering economy.

China is the only country seemingly preparing for "all eventualities" in Myanmar.

The military exercises, launched on November 25 along the China-Myanmar border, are currently underway with no specified end date. The Southern Military Command of China, responsible for the drill, has affirmed its "perpetual preparedness to address diverse emergencies".

The military drills began as "combat training activities" a day after a convoy of trucks carrying goods into Myanmar went up in flames.

Insecurity concerns in China

The incident, which Myanmar state media blamed on an insurgent attack, came amid insecurity concerns in China, whose envoy met top officials in Myanmar's capital for talks on border stability after recent signs of rare strain in their ties.

The training aims to "test the rapid manoeuvreability, border sealing and fire strike capabilities of troops", the Southern Theatre Command, one of five in China's People's Liberation Army, said on the WeChat messaging app. The brief statement gave no details of timing or numbers of troops.

Friday's fire in the town of Muse came as Myanmar's military has lost control of several towns and military outposts in the north-east and elsewhere as it battles the biggest coordinated rebel offensive it has faced since seizing power in a 2021 coup.

Humiliating defeats

Myanmar's military has suffered a string of defeats leading to informed speculation that it might actually collapse due to  military pressure from multiple insurgent groups, and because of intense financial crisis. But both India and the US seem unprepared to face the country's potential state collapse.

In recent weeks, the Myanmar armed forces have suffered major losses of territory to ethnic minority armies and the People’s Defense Forces, primarily made up of the majority Burman ethnic group. During the battles, government soldiers displayed an abysmal lack of morale as they fled or surrendered, often dropping their weapons and changing into civilian clothes to avoid detection.

In northern and north-eastern Myanmar, in the crucial battleground of Shan State, three ethnic insurgent armies, supported by other armed groups opposing the government, have overrun dozens of military posts and seized border crossings and roads carrying most of the overland trade with China.

It is the worst setback suffered by the junta since it seized power in February 2021. "After two-and-half years of battling the armed uprising it provoked with its disastrous coup, the military is looking weak, and possibly beatable,” says a BBC report.

Indeed, the junta forces are doing so terribly that even the military-installed president of Myanmar, who can never speak freely, has warned that the country could collapse into a range of fiefdoms or a total failed state, due to the army’s losses.

Rising defections

The military is failing in other ways as well. It is suffering from a rising number of defections according to multiple people who closely follow the rate of defections. Lacking men, the military is resorting to dropping bombs on villages, but such a tactic will never lead it to control territory, and will only further inflame people, possibly leading them to join anti-junta forces.

"What is more, the Russian planes the military uses are drying up as Russia needs its military kit. The junta has begun to look to sources like North Korea for arms, showing its desperation. Other close Myanmar watchers who have followed the military’s finances suggest that it is far closer to bankruptcy than is widely known," says a report by the US Council of Foreign Relations.

It is also possible that the military will collapse from within. Junior officers are highly dissatisfied with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing’s conduct of war and the economy. Many blame him for what they think was a "needless coup" to avenge his failed presidential ambitions.

Western intelligence does not rule out another coup against the top leadership but that would further divide the military and make it even more vulnerable to collapse.

A specialist on Asian conflicts, Anthony Davis, has warned that if the military launches a counter-offensive toward the north, it would leave itself wide open to guerrilla attacks in other parts of the country.

Military’s woes

If the military was to retreat from much of the north and just tried to protect a few big cities in central Myanmar, including its headquarters in Naypyidaw, it would be a major psychological defeat, says Davies.

A supposedly powerful military on the run augurs ill for the junta's capacity to rule the country, leading to a governance crisis. A counteroffensive would stretch the military’s ranks even thinner, potentially opening up other parts of the country for the opposition to launch new offensives.

It's time for the world, specially Myanmar's neighbours, to recognise that the once-powerful Tatmadaw military is on the verge of an internal collapse and further major breakthroughs by the opposition force could lead to a situation in which the military just falls apart.

But such a collapse, if not handled properly by both Myanmarese leaders in the exiled National Unity Government (NUG) and the leading, powerful ethnic militias, could also lead the country to disintegrate into a series of groups, lacking a common enemy, who could easily turn their guns on each other, creating bloody chaos and completely gutting the remainder of the Myanmar state.

While the Chinese seem to be preparing for all eventualities, India is caught in a strange policy paralysis. By recently rescuing more than 20 Myanmarese soldiers who had illegally entered Mizoram and handing them back to Myanmar authorities, India has upset the democracy movement by giving the impression it is still backing the junta and recognising it as the legitimate ruler of Myanmar.

Both the Ministry of External Affairs and the Indian Army, which deal with the junta, seem to think the Tatmadaw will tide over the crisis and retain control of the government in Yangon.

Bleak future?

Similarly, most senior US officials still seem convinced that the military will not collapse and eventually will negotiate an end to the crisis with the coalition of opposition forces. What both Indian and US officials and some experts don't realise is that there is little reason for the opposition to come to the table if they continue to rack up battlefield victories and the military looks like collapsing.

There seems to be little brainstorming within the US and Indian governments for a possible Myanmar military collapse, and how to help create a framework for a future, federal and democratic government.

Such planning needs to start now. There will be little time, if the military collapses, in a state that already has been economically devastated and lacks most state services, to broker some path toward a future democratic government.

There are few leaders in Myanmar or in the NUG who could foster a compromise to build this path. Aung San Suu Kyi has been in jail during the entire civil conflict and many of her ideas, and her political persona, have been bypassed by a younger cohort in the NUG and other opposition groups.

If India and the West fail to respond appropriately to a possible Myanmar military collapse, China will still manage to retain influence in a post-junta scenario because it prepared well in time.

(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal.)