BJP faces new caste-census headache: Its NDA allies are batting for it

With less than eight months left for the Lok Sabha elections, NDA members are asking the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to come out strongly in support of a caste census.

“Our leaders have often told BJP leaders in the Union government and the party that we support a caste-based census and it is our demand that the Central government carry it out. The Prime Minister and the home minister are aware of our demands,” said Sunil Patel, a leader of Apna Dal (Sonelal), a BJP ally in Uttar Pradesh and an MLA in the state.

While the Apna Dal (Sonelal) has supported the Modi government since 2014, the BJP recently included Om Prakash Rajbhar, chief of the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSJ) and the Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (NISHAD) of Sanjay Nishad, a minister in Uttar Pradesh. Both parties have a base among Other Backward Classes (OBCs).

Yogi factor

The problem for the BJP originates from the fact that while the Union government is noncommittal on the issue, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has categorically denied support for a caste-based census.

A NISHAD party leader has said, “We support a caste census because social justice is one of our core reasons. This is not a political issue for us. We believe such a census is needed. It will help in our fight for social justice.” 

Even as the BJP is trying to deal with the demand, the issue cropped up when the Lok Sabha passed the Women’s Reservation Bill. During the discussion, Union Minister Anupriya Patel of Apna Dal (Sonelal) demanded reservation for women from the OBC community in the Nari Shakti Bill. While most Opposition parties supported her, the headache for the BJP was that its own allies too backed the demand.

The BJP says OBC reservation in the Women’s Reservation Bill will only be possible after a nationwide caste census. “The two issues that are interlinked. We support both and we hope the government will carry out a caste census at the earliest,” said Patel.

NDA counter strategy

Realising that the Opposition INDIA alliance is trying to corner the BJP-NDA combine on caste census, BJP’s partners want a counter strategy to take on the Opposition.

The NDA fears that once the caste survey in Bihar is completed, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar will use it to make electoral promises in Bihar. NDA leaders also feel the INDIA grouping will use Bihar as an example to promise caste census across the country, to woo the OBCs, who are a core voter base for BJP.

“We have been telling the BJP that that once the caste survey of Bihar is completed, INDIA will make a similar promise across the country. We fear that NDA, especially BJP, will be targeted by the Opposition,” said a leader of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas).

NDA allies know the success of their coalition depends on the electoral success of the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. If the BJP-NDA combine has to retain power, the BJP must perform well in the elections. 

“We are smaller parties. Our voter base can act as an amplifier, but to win majority seats in the state, we need BJP’s support. It is important to counter the Opposition strategy which revolves around caste census,” said the LJP (Ram Vilas) leader.

Caste census, an election plank in 2024

According to political analysts, the INDIA alliance is eyeing this crucial voter base of BJP-led NDA.

“The caste census will become an election plank in 2024. BJP’s allies believe they will find it difficult to counter it. INDIA alliance is clearly going all out to win over the voter base of the BJP-NDA,” said Jai Mrug, a Mumbai-based political analyst and psephologist.