Disagreeing allies, inadequate numbers in Parliament may dampen Modi's I-Day promises

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his first Independence Day address since returning to power for the third term, reiterated his commitment that the ruling BJP will implement its core electoral promises of Uniform Civil Code (UCC) and ‘One Nation, One Poll’.

Hurdles in the way

However, while the BJP is committed to fulfilling its two promises, the view within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may not be favourable for the ruling party.

Two massive hurdles await the saffron party in implementing its electoral promise – the first is that NDA partners may not be in support of a UCC and the second is that the ruling party does not have the required strength in both houses of Parliament to get the Bill on One Nation, One Poll passed.

Opposition to UCC in northeast India

“The implementation of UCC is a big issue in the northeast and the stand of National People’s Party (NPP) remains the same. We will not be able to support any move to implement the UCC in the country,” Yumnam Joy Kumar, vice president of NPP, told The Federal.

“It is a big issue in the northeast and most parties in the region are united in their view that it cannot be supported. We can understand that the implementation of UCC may be the view of the BJP, but it is not our view. Any change in the stand on UCC will be made public by Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma and I do not think that he will change his stand on the issue,” he added.

The NPP is an ally of the BJP at the Centre.

JD(U) wants debate, consensus on UCC

While the NDA partners from the northeast are more vocal about their denial of support for the implementation of UCC, the situation is no different for other allies like Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) which too wants a unanimous decision on the implementation of UCC.

“We are not against the implementation of UCC. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has already written a letter supporting the decision. However, the view of JD(U) is that there should be greater consultation on the issue,” KC Tyagi, secretary general and national spokesperson of JD(U), told The Federal.

“All stakeholders must be on the same page and agree for the implementation of UCC. We want the issue to be discussed with all chief ministers, religious bodies, legal experts and constitutional experts. All stakeholders must agree on UCC before it gets implemented. If need be, the Union government can set up a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) to study the issue and also to build consensus among all stakeholders,” Tyagi said.

‘Consultation must with all stakeholders’

In what could create more difficulties for the BJP, many senior NDA leaders have called out the party for allowing the implementation of UCC in states ruled by it by passing laws in its favour. NDA leaders argue that there should be greater consultations with the chief ministers of all states and chiefs all political parties before any such decision is taken. They say the BJP must come to terms with the fact that the political situation in the country has changed, and it no longer enjoys an absolute majority in Parliament.

“The prime minister has often spoken about building consensus among NDA partners and political parties for the smooth functioning of the government and also Parliament. We are confident that a consensus will be built and a unanimous decision will be taken on UCC,” Tyagi said.

Opposition from RSS affiliate

The challenge for the BJP-led Union government is not just from the NDA partners but also from its mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram (VKA), an affiliate of RSS, which works primarily with tribals, has already suggested to the Centre to keep tribals out of the purview of UCC. Senior BJP leaders will be faced with the arduous task of convincing members of VKA before implementing UCC in the country.

No takers for One Nation, One Poll?

While the Union government is struggling to build a consensus on UCC, getting One Nation, One Poll implemented will also not be a smooth sail for the ruling party.

Although there is greater support for the crucial initiative within the NDA, the problem for the BJP is that the NDA will need at least two-third majority in the Parliament to implement this decision. After the 2024 general elections, BJP-led NDA does not have the required numbers to pass legislations in Parliament.

While the lack of numbers is one issue, the BJP is still faced with the challenge of building consensus among NDA allies to support One Nation, One Poll.

“We are not ready to support One Nation, One Poll. We have already conveyed our views to the BJP on both issues and there is no change in our view on them,” said Joy Kumar.

Perception creation

Political analysts believe that Prime Minister Modi wants to give the impression to the people that there is no change in the narrative of the BJP despite a fall in its strength in Parliament.

“Prime Minister Modi is speaking about these crucial issues at this time because he does not want the narrative to shift and is also giving the impression to his supporters that BJP is not as weak as the opposition parties want the people to believe. Modi wants to create a perception that BJP is still in control of the political situation in the country,” Yatindra Singh Sisodia, director, MP Institute of Social Science Research, told The Federal.