India suffered income loss equal to 6.3% of GDP from heatwaves: Lancet study

Agricultural workers were hit the hardest, seeing 64 per cent of the potential hours lost and 55 per cent of the potential income losses in 2022, added the report.

The key findings are from the 2023 Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, which highlights how climate inaction is costing lives and livelihoods today, and also analyses outcomes of climate change on individual countries. The report, which also tracked estimated lost income and food insecurity, said that globally, exposure to extreme heat, and resulting losses in productivity or inability to work, may have led to income losses as high as $863 billion in 2022.

Health risks from climate change

The report, which shows how more people are getting sick and dying from extreme heat, drought and other climate related problems, emphasises how health risks linked to climate change are getting worse. This exhaustive report put together by 114 leading experts reveal soaring health risks due to global inaction over climate change.

The report sends out a dire warning that with the world currently on track for 2.7°C of heating by 2100, and energy-related emissions reaching a new record high in 2022, the lives of current and future generations hang in the balance.

Heat related deaths

One of the most grim findings in this report is that globally, heat-related deaths of people older than 65 have increased by 85 per cent since the 1990s. As global temperatures have risen, adults older than 65 years and infants younger than one year now are exposed to twice the number of heat-wave days annually as they were from 1986 to 2005. This result was arrived at through modelling that involves changing temperatures and demographics.

Shocking five-fold increase

In India too, the situation is bleak as from 2013-2022, the total number of heatwave days experienced annually by children under the age of one was 43 per cent greater than the equivalent demographic from 1986-2005. Adults over age 65 saw a 216 per cent increase in the number ofacross the same timeframe.

From 2013-2022, each infant was exposed to an average of 7.7 life-threatening heatwave days per year, while adults over age 65 were exposed to 8.4 days per year, quotes the Lancet report.

The report too goes on to predict that in a future scenario in which temperatures are maintained at under 2°C of heating, heatwave exposure for people over age 65 is projected to increase by a shocking 5-fold by mid-century (2041-2060 average) in India. 

According to the 8th annual report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, as the report is called, the world itself is likely to experience a 4.7 fold increase in heat-related deaths by mid-century. In 2023, the world saw the hottest global temperatures in over 100,000 years, and heat records were broken in all continents through 2022.

COP28 in Dubai

This report has come at a critical time ahead of the COP28 that will be held in Dubai in less than a month. For the first time in the history of climate conferences, there will be an entire day dedicated to health. 

India’s vulnerability to infectious diseases

Another key finding in the Lancet report for India is that climatic conditions is increasingly facilitating the spread of vector-borne diseases including dengue and malaria.

Over the last decade (2013-2022), conditions have been suitable for the spread of malaria by Anopheles mosquitoes for more than a third of the year, said the report. Moreover, the basic reproduction number (R0, an indication of transmissibility) for dengue has been above 2, meaning that each infected person will likely infect two new susceptible people.

Also, worryingly, 39 per cent of India’s coast is now right for the transmission of Vibrio pathogens, responsible for a range of human infections including gastroenteritis, sepsis, and cholera.

Drought and health

Right here in India, climate change has made populations vulnerable to the effects of sea-level rise,flooding, and drought causing reduced crop-yields and population migration and displacement. The amount of land experiencing at least one month of extreme drought per year has increased to a massive 138 per cent from 1951-1960 to 2013-2022.

While an average of 29 per cent of India’s land area experienced over three months of extreme drought per year in the years from 2013 to 2022.

The Lancet report also highlighted the impact of air pollution, which the findings alarmingly show are causing deaths that are going up. According to the report, the air pollution has largely been caused by exposure to fossil fuels and biomass derived PM2.5 generated by human activities.

According to the report, there has been a 35 per cent increase in deaths due to small particulate matter from 2005 to 2020. In 2020, there were over 815,000 deaths attributed to this reason and of these deaths in 2020, 44 per cent were due to the combustion of fossil fuels, while 22 per cent were due to the use of biomass.

Renewable energy

India has not made much progress in transitioning to renewable energy despite its pledge to meet 50 per cent of its electricity requirements from renewable energy sources by 2030. In 2020, renewable energy makes up less than 2 per cent of total energy supply and contributed less than 9 per cent of total electricity output. 43 per cent of total energy supply and 71 per cent of total electricity output still comes from coal.

Globally, the situation is that the most underserved countries are being left behind in the clean energy transition, said the report, and inequitable access to clean energies has left the most vulnerable communities reliant on air-polluting fuels.

Despite plentiful natural renewable energy resources, just 2.3 per cnt of electricity comes from clean renewables in low-income countries (compared with 11 per cent in wealthy countries); and 92 per cent of households still rely on polluting biomass (such as wood or dung) to cook and heat their homes (compared with 7.5 per cent in rich nations).

Continuous dependence on fossil fuels

Authors of this report have slammed the “negligence” of governments, companies, and banks who continue investing in oil and gas. They warn that without profound and swift mitigation to tackle the root causes of climate change, the health of humanity is at grave risk.

The 2022 Lancet Countdown report also pointed out that the world is not transitioning away from health-harming fossil fuels in response to the global energy crisis and the data from this year’s report reveal a world moving in the wrong direction. New and updated indicators reveal that investment and lending on fossil fuels are on the rise, said the report.

Together, the world’s 20 largest oil and gas giants have increased their projected fossil fuel production levels since last year, which would result in greenhouse gas emissions surpassing levels compatible with 1.5°C of warming by 173 per cent in 2040, further reducing their compliance with the Paris Agreement.

Concerningly, fossil fuel companies allocated just 4 per cent of their capital investment to renewables in 2022, putting a healthy future further out of reach, warned the report.

Reacting to the report, UN Secretary-General, António Guterres said, “The continuing expansion of fossil fuels is a death sentence to millions. There is no excuse for a persistent delay in climate action. Temperature rise must be limited to 1.5°C to avert the worst of climate change, save millions of lives, and help protect the health of everyone on earth.”

Encouraging signs

While swift action is urgently needed, there are some encouraging signs of progress, for this year’s report reveals that deaths from fossil fuel-derived air pollution have fallen almost 17 per cent since 2005, with 80 per cent of this decline due to efforts to reduce pollution from coal burning.

At the same time, global investment in clean energy grew 15 per cent in 2022 to US$1.6 trillion, exceeding fossil fuel investment by 61 per cent, while lending to the green energy sector rose to US$498 billion in 2021. 

Co-ordinated effort

For the first time, this year’s Lancet Countdown included projections for the future. If the global average temperature rises by 2 degrees Celsius, the report warns that the number of heat-related deaths each year will increase by 370 percent by the middle of this century.

To truly protect health, climate negotiations must drive home that countries must move away from fossil fuels, accelerate mitigation, and increase support for health adaptation. Anything less would amount to "healthwashing"— as the threats rapidly grow, seizing the opportunity to secure a healthier future has never been more vital. And, calls for coordinated action of health professionals, policy makers, corporations, and financial institutions.