How PM Modi walked diplomatic tightrope during his Ukraine visit

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Ukraine visit, the first-ever by an Indian PM, has turned out to be historic as he vowed to help the strife-torn country find a diplomatic solution to bring an end to the two-and-a-half-year-old conflict with Russia.

“The road to resolution can only be found through dialogue and diplomacy. And we should move in that direction without wasting any time. Both sides should sit together to find a way out of this crisis,” Modi was quoted as saying during the talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

"I want to assure you that India is ready to play an active role in any efforts toward peace. If I can play any role in this personally, I will do that, I want to assure you as a friend,” he added. The move seemed to emphasise a growing desire for New Delhi to play the role of a “peacemaker”.

Balancing act

However, at the same time the visit and the subsequent bilateral meeting also points to India’s delicate balancing act as it attempts to navigate tricky ties with both the West, with which it seeks greater cooperation, and its all-weather friend, Russia.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said the prime minister reiterated the need for “practical engagement” between all stakeholders to develop an innovative solution that will help build broad acceptability and contribute towards peace and stability.

Political analysts opine that India would like to enhance its partnership with the West, particularly with the US, and wouldn't wish to upset the momentum. Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, recently said the relationship should not be “taken for granted”. They feel that India also needs the West as China, its Asian rival, and Russia have forged close ties in recent years.

PM Modi drew flak for embracing the Russian President Vladimir Putin during his Moscow trip in July, which Zelenskyy had slammed as a “huge disappointment” and “a devastating blow to peace efforts”.

Sense of optimism

Zelenskyy said he looks forward to visiting India as it can be a “key” in the global diplomatic efforts to end the war between his country and Russia.

“India (is a) big influential country, not only in the world (but) also through the circle of very sceptical countries. If we will change India’s attitude to this war and to Russia, we will stop the war, because Putin will want to stop it,” Zeleskyy said in reply to a question while interacting with the visiting Indian media.

“PM Modi wants peace more than Putin. The problem is Putin doesn’t want (peace). I don’t know what they spoke during their meeting. But I ....” Zelenskyy said and shrugged with an expression of exasperation.

Zelenskyy said Modi’s visit and his intent to push for the peace efforts gives him a sense of optimism, noting the importance of having “as many global actors as possible clearly express their stance on the fundamental norms of international law and visit Ukraine to demonstrate their support in tangible terms.”

Later, addressing a press conference, Jaishankar said, “We are today very, very keen that this conflict should come to an end. We are willing to do whatever we can, because we do think that the continuation of this conflict is terrible, obviously for Ukraine itself and for the world as well.”

Zelenskyy’s plain speak

Though Zelenskyy hailed PM Modi’s willingness to push for the peaceful resolution of the conflict, he also resorted to some plain speak and accused India of helping sustain Russia’s “war economy” through purchase of crude oil.

India has “global influence [as] a very big country...and a very big influence on the Russian economy. Today, you have it, and it’s true because really a lot of export possibilities for Russia [were] closed but India is open,” he said.

Zelensky said he spoke openly with Modi about India’s oil purchases from Russia, which is generating billions of dollars that help fund Russia’s military. “It’s about billions which are coming back, which Putin...uses it only because he has now really, officially, a war economy,” Zelensky said. “So, he [Putin] has to feel how war is expensive, and his society has to feel it.”

He added, “The role of India – if you will stop imports of oil, Putin will have huge challenges...Prime Minister Modi wants peace more than Putin, this is the problem...The problem is that Putin doesn’t want [peace].”

A Russian strike on Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital that coincided with the start of Modi’s Moscow visit last month made it clear that President Putin does not respect India or its leader, Zelensky said while briefing the media following his talks with Modi.

Zelensky had sharply reacted to the attack on the hospital coinciding with images of Modi hugging Putin during a meeting at the Russian leader’s private residence in Moscow. “It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world's largest democracy hug the world's most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day,” he had posted on X at the time.

Strategic autonomy

India has apparently remained neutral ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, being one of only a few countries to maintain strong trading and diplomatic ties with both sides.

However, its refusal to snap ties with Moscow, or at least publicly condemn the invasion, has come at the cost of significant irritation to Kyiv and its Western partners, particularly after Modi paid a visit to Russia in July — a move viewed with “concern” in Washington and dubbed by Zelenskyy as “a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts.”

Committed to its “strategic autonomy” in foreign policy, India has continued to buy discounted Russian oil despite Western efforts to not only weaken Moscow economically but also isolate it internationally.

Even as India’s defence imports from Russia have witnessed a decline in recent years as New Delhi seeks to diversify its arms suppliers and bolster domestic weapons production, experts opine that its huge stockpile of Russian weapons means Moscow will remain a vital partner for several decades, even if increasingly under the form of joint ventures.

Moreover, India may want to further pursue close ties with Russia to do what it can to limit Moscow’s drift toward Beijing, which is possibly why it has so far refused to back several UN resolutions calling on Russia to end its Ukraine offensive.