Hindu population down 7.8% from 1950 to 2015, Muslims' up 43.15%: EAC-PM paper
However, a 2022 NFHS report said Muslims’ fertility rate has seen the sharpest decline among all religious communities over the past two decades
A recent working paper by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) highlights that between 1950 and 2015, the Hindu population in India experienced a 7.82% decline, while the Muslim population saw a 43.15% increase. This trend suggests a conducive environment for nurturing diversity in the country.
The paper titled 'Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)' further said the share of Jains in the population of India decreased from 0.45 per cent in 1950 to 0.36 per cent in 2015.
However, a 2022 NFHS report said Muslims’ fertility rate has seen the sharpest decline among all religious communities over the past two decades,
Hindu population declines
"The share of the majority Hindu population decreased by 7.82 per cent between 1950 and 2015 (from 84.68 per cent to 78.06 per cent). The share of Muslim population in 1950 was 9.84 per cent and increased to 14.09 per cent in 2015 – a 43.15 per cent increase in their share," said the paper prepared by a team led by Shamika Ravi, member, EAC-PM.
According to the paper, the share of the Christian population rose from 2.24 per cent to 2.36 per cent -- an increase of 5.38 per cent between 1950 and 2015.
While the share of Sikh population increased from 1.24 per cent in 1950 to 1.85 per cent in 2015 - a 6.58 per cent rise in their share, the share of the Parsi population witnessed a stark 85 per cent decline, reducing from 0.03 per cent share in 1950 to 0.004 per cent in 2015.
The data indicates that "there is a conducive environment to foster diversity in the society," the paper said, adding that it is not possible to promote better life outcomes for the disadvantaged sections of society without providing a nurturing environment and societal support through a bottom-up approach.
Increase in the share of minorities
The paper noted that a decrease in the share of the majority population and a consequent increase in the share of minorities suggests that the net result of all policy actions, political decisions and societal processes is to provide a conducive environment for increasing diversity in society.
The report pointed out that in keeping with the global trends of declining majority, India too has witnessed a reduction in the share of the majority religious denomination by 7.82 per cent.
"This is particularly remarkable given the wider context within the South Asian neighborhood where the share of the majority religious denomination has increased and minority populations have shrunk alarmingly across countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Afghanistan," the paper said.
Baseline year
The paper noted that the year 1950 is important as a baseline year for two major reasons.
This was around the time that the international human rights framework under the aegis of the newly created United Nations began to take shape with minority rights and state responsibility for protection of minorities being mainstreamed in international law, the paper said.
The paper is a detailed cross-country descriptive analysis of the status of minorities around the world measured in terms of their changing share in a country’s population over 65 years between 1950 and 2015.
For the 167 countries analysed, the average value for the share of the majority religious denomination in the baseline year of 1950 is 75 per cent, while the mean of the distribution capturing the change in majority religious denomination between 1950 and 2015 is 21.9.
What NFHS said
Muslims’ fertility rate has seen the sharpest decline among all religious communities over the past two decades, shows data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), conducted by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.
In keeping with the downward trend seen over the years, the community’s fertility rate dipped to 2.3 in 2019-2021 from 2.6 in 2015-16.
While all religious communities have shown a decline in fertility, contributing to a dip in the nation’s total fertility rate, the fall has been sharpest in the Muslim community, from 4.4 in NFHS 1 (1992-93) to 2.3 in NFHS 5(2019-21).