With Yunus govt on back foot, Trump’s return heightens Bangladesh uncertainty

The victory of Donald Trump in the American Presidential election this week has caused widespread uncertainty and concern in Bangladesh on how future relations between Dhaka and Washington are likely to pan out.

There is also fear among sections that if ties are not handled properly, it could create a situation to pave the way for the return of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to the country.

An additional concern among policy planners in Bangladesh is that Trump, on the eve of the election, had not only castigated the communal attacks on Hindus in the Muslim-dominated country, but also promised to strengthen relations with India and his “good friend” Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister.

Hasina’s departure

Until recently, the caretaker government headed by Muhammad Yunus in Dhaka was extremely happy that with Hasina’s departure from the country, the influence of India had also reduced significantly. The possibility of Delhi regaining a strong foothold in the country is not a welcome proposition for the current administration.

Also read: Trump's comeback worries Mohammed Yunus; Sheikh Hasina as 'PM' praises US President-elect

Hasina, the longest serving leader of Bangladesh, was thrown out of power and forced to flee the country after a student protest on the “unfair” job recruitment policy of the government turned into a public insurrection against her on August 5.

Hasina has been in India since her departure from Bangladesh.

Yunus’s US links

Yunus who was praised for his work in Grameen Bank, which had successfully transformed the lives of millions of poor Bangladeshis through his microcredit system, was brought in, on the insistence of the students, to head the caretaker government and run the country.

A large number of people in India believed that Hasina’s ouster was orchestrated by the US for her refusal to toe its line, and Yunus was installed by the Americans.

Yunus has always flaunted his closeness and long friendship with Bill and Hilary Clinton, two very influential leaders in the Democratic Party, and more so since coming to head the caretaker administration.

Yunus and the Clintons

To stretch the point further, he not only attended an event of the Clinton Global Initiative 2024 during a September visit to the US but, while sharing the stage with former American President Bill Clinton, introduced two young people, including his special assistant Mahfuj Alam, and lauded their role in the uprising that ousted Hasina.

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Yunus said, “It is amazing…the way they speak, the language I have never heard. They speak about the world, they speak about the country, they want to build themselves, and they are ready to make that happen.

“So, please help them, support them. So that their dreams come true. And, this is a responsibility we take together. And, you will be with us,” he implored the former US President while holding his hand.

Many observers in Dhaka believe these remarks may now come to haunt Yunus given the long-strained relationship that Trump has had not only with the Democrats but the Clintons in particular, who rarely missed an opportunity to run down Trump and make life difficult for him.

Course correction

But an attempt is being made to signal that Yunus, a globally recognised economist who was awarded the Nobel Prize for his work at the Grameen Bank and brought to head the current administration to put the economy back on tracks, enjoyed bipartisan support in the US.

Yunus was quick to congratulate the President-elect after the US elections and expressed optimism for strengthened bilateral ties and future cooperation between Bangladesh and the US.

However, sceptics are not sure how far such congratulatory messages and the desire to work together will go in clearing any misgivings that Trump may have about Yunus.

Former Bangladesh foreign secretary Touhid Hossain, who is currently advising the caretaker government on foreign affairs related issues, said, “We will have to wait and watch before jumping to any conclusion on how Donald Trump will work.”

Also read: Bengal: Uneasy India-Bangladesh ties hit trade, medical tourism

Changes in US’s Bangladesh policy foreseen

Experts say a Trump presidency is likely to bring some, if not substantive, changes to the US foreign policy for Bangladesh, with potential ripple effects on issues covering trade, political dynamics, climate change, and Bangladesh’s relations with regional powers.

Bangladesh needs US financial support bilaterally and also through the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, institutions where Washington has a lot of influence.

“It is also in the US’s interest to ensure Bangladesh remains stable and peaceful,” says former Bangladeshi diplomat Humayun Kabir who served in Washinton as ambassador.

“A crisis in Bangladesh can unravel in a manner that will also affect the entire region” he added.

Trump’s statement on election eve

What had sparked off speculation and anxiety among policy planners and commentators in Bangladesh was Trump’s statement on the communal violence in the country.

In his statement, Trump said, “I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos. It would have never happened on my watch.”

He added, “Under my administration, we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi.”

Also read: Trump sends Diwali greetings, condemns attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh

Communal violence a narrative?

Bangladeshi observers are of the view that incidents of communal violence in Bangladesh were a narrative created by Hasina and supported by India to dilute the challenges Bangladesh faces to repair the country that was left in shambles by the former Prime Minister in her 16-year-long rule.

They also argue that the incidents of communal attack that had taken place was when the country was in a flux in the wake of Hasina’s departure. But they have had declined subsequently.

Bangladeshi officials argue that most of the violence in recent weeks, including the one purportedly against Hindus in Chittagong, were “political” clashes that were being described as communal clashes.

India said “extremists” were behind the attacks and urged Bangladesh to act against the perpetrators and take strong measures to ensure safety of the minorities.

Caretaker government fast losing credibility

But what has been seen really as significant in Bangladesh is India’s description of Hasina as the “former Prime Minister of Bangladesh”, as this puts to rest speculations that the Modi government could play an active role in reinstating Hasina back to power as her resignation has been shrouded in mystery and raises constitutional questions.

However, with inflation in Bangladesh rising to over 10.87 per cent, including soaring prices of food, especially rice and vegetables, and law and order in a “near-collapse” situation, with rampant theft, robbery and violence, Yunus’s caretaker government is fast losing credibility.

If the situation continues to deteriorate, and Hasina and the Awami League return to renew political activities in Bangladesh in the coming days, there is a possibility that she may then count on support from Modi and Trump. How Yunus and Hasina’s detractors react to that challenge remains to be seen.