US elections | Kamala Harris will beat Trump, predicts election 'prophet'

US historian and election prophet Allan Lichtman, also known as the 'Nostradamus of American presidential elections', has predicted that Democratic party candidate Kamala Harris is sure to win the race to the White House.

Litchman, who has correctly predicted nine out of 10 presidential election results, told NDTV that vice-president Harris is sure to defeat Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.

To accurately predict who will occupy the Oval Office, Lichtman has designed what he terms the “13 keys to the White House”, a unique, path-breaking method to forecast election results.

The winning keys

The keys, which feature a series of true or false questions, assess factors like party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, foreign success, social unrest, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

Lichtman explained that if six or more keys go against the White House party, they are predicted as losers, or else they are predicted as winners.

While Harris has secured eight of Lichtman's keys to the White House, Trump has managed to bag just three.

Why Trump camp is down

"They (Conservatives) lost the mandate key, which is based on losses in US house election. They have obviously lost the incumbency key with Biden not running,” he told the TV channel. “But with the party uniting around Harris, they avoided the loss of the contest key. Finally, the third key that they lost was incumbent charisma key."

Litchman, who has successfully predicted election outcomes since 1984 except once, said foreign policy failure and success remain uncertain elements.

"The only other two keys that are shaky are the two foreign policy keys,” he pointed out, as the ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine were fluid.

Keys in favour of Kamala 

“I think those keys will split and Harris will be down 4 keys. But even if they both flip negative, this means Harris is down only 5 keys, still one key short of defeat. All other keys are locked in her favour," he added.

“But they won't affect my prediction that Kamala Harris is going to be the next President of the United States,” he asserted.

US economy 

On the economic front, which is also measured as short-term, long-term economy, Litchman said there was no recession in the election year and one cannot have a recession in a couple of months.

"The long-term economy key asks whether the per capita growth on the current term is equal to the average of previous two terms. And per capita growth under Biden is double or more than that of the average of previous two terms," he said.

Asked if Republicans could do anything to fare better, Litchman said: "There is actually nothing they can do. That's the whole point of the keys." And adds that it is fundamentally different than all of the conventional wisdoms.