Potential Lashio loss poses biggest rout for Myanmar army in escalating civil war

The Myanmarese army Tatmadaw is heading for its worst defeat in the escalating civil war engulfing Myanmar for nearly a year now, as rebel troops have almost taken control of Lashio town on the border with China.

A worried China has called for immediate cessation of fighting. A spokesman in Beijing urged both the government and rebel soldiers not to harm Chinese businesses and nationals who may be caught up in the fighting.

The imminent loss of Lashio comes within a week after Myanmar’s military supremo Senior General Min Aung Hlaing declared himself the president, replacing incumbent Myint Swe. The move prompted sarcastic speculation that he has finally fulfilled his dream to be the official head of the state.

Military shaken up at top

But Hlaing's taking over the presidency is possibly because he can no longer trust any other junta personality at the top after some senior officers said he would have to step down if the Tatmadaw lost Lashio.

Lashio, with a population of about 170,000, is the largest town and the administrative headquarters of northern Shan state, where the army’s powerful North Eastern Command was based.

The imminent loss of Lashio is not the only setback for the Tatmadaw. Reliable reports suggest that fighters of the People's Defence Forces have broken through some military positions about 20 km north of the country's second largest city Mandalay.

Major rebel offensive

Traders say government troops have been seen busy strengthening defences around the city.

Early on Friday (July 26), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) fighters broke through the last defences of the regional military headquarters at Lashio.

"The MNDAA fighters have infiltrated the Headquarters of the Northesst Command and heavy close quarter combat was reported from different parts of Lashio including the famous Mansu monastery," said a senior aid worker still in Lashio.

Rebels claim victory

The MNDAA offensive came after failed Chinese efforts to broker a peace deal between the military junta and the rebels in northern Myanmar, and would therefore make Beijing uncomfortable. Lashio has been crucial to the Sino-Burmese border trade.

“Our army has won a decisive victory and is now clearing out the remaining enemy troops. The city is now declared completely liberated,” the MNDAA, which is part of the powerful Brotherhood Alliance, said in a statement shared on social media.

Lashio, 120 km from the border with China, fell after 23 days of heavy fighting. The MNDAA asked the city's population to remain calm and comply with its administration

Military badly stretched

The MNDAA is among several ethnic rebel groups on an offensive against the military junta after they stitched together the loose but effective Brotherhood Alliance to seize territories from the army to end military control over Myanmar.

The civil war has escalated in recent months.

The military, which staged a coup in 2021 after a decade of limited democracy, has been severely stretched on multiple fronts across Myanmar, hampering its grip on the country and its tottering economy.

China is seriously worried

The MNDAA launched its latest offensive after the recent collapse of a ceasefire brokered by China, which has been concerned about fighting at its border and its impact on trade.

China’s foreign ministry on Thursday urged all sides to cease hostilities, enter into dialogue and ensure Chinese businesses and nationals were unharmed.

“We will continue to encourage peace and push for talks,” spokesperson Mao Ning said.

Junta’s control badly hit

According to an analysis earlier this year by the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, the junta no longer has effective control of Myanmar, having lost authority over townships covering 86 per cent of the country and two-thirds of the population.

But the junta, despite unconfirmed reports of divisions at the top that may have prompted Min Aung Hlaing to take over the presidency, seems determined to fight on rather than start negotiations for a return to democracy by honouring the verdict of the last elections or holding a fresh one within a declared time frame.